The industrial output fell in 12 out of 15 places surveyed by the Regional Monthly Industrial Survey (PIM) between August and September, when the national index retreated 0.7%.Released today (8) by the IBGE, the survey unveils drops with results below the national average in Santa Catarina (-5.1%), Paraná (-4.3%), Pará (-3.7%), São Paulo (-3.3%), Goiás (-2.9%), Amazonas (-2.9%), Espírito Santo (-2.2%), Minas Gerais (-1.7%), Bahia (-1.3%) and Rio de Janeiro (-1.1%). Mato Grosso (-0.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-0.2%) were the other places with negative indexes this month.

Of the 12 places that dropped in September, the food sector was among the major influences on the results in eight of them. São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Pará and Minas Gerais stood out.

“Inflation is impacting more food products, mainly those of the basic food basket. It affects the production chain. It can also be noticed that unemployment is dropping, though informality has increased and the average earnings remain low. As a result, less food is produced, since families are consuming less, caused by the loss in the purchasing power due to inflation, and it might explain the drop in this sector,” clarifies Bernardo Almeida, an analyst of the Regional PIM.

“On the supply side, we can say that the negative factors begin to be mitigated, like shortage of inputs and price increase of raw material. In addition to the uncertainties in relation to the macroeconomic environment in Brazil, these factors affect decisions of producers and consumers, reducing their consumption to keep some purchasing power,” completes Almeida.

Having fallen 3.3% in September, the state of São Paulo registered the lowest result in the month/month comparison since April 2022, when it hit -4.5%. As the major influence on the national industry, that state remains the thermometer of the results reported this month.

“The sector of food and petroleum products were those that influenced mostly negatively the result. It is worth reminding that São Paulo represents nearly 34% of the industrial concentration and that in September it is 23.9% below its peak, hit in March 2011. In the comparison with pre-pandemic results, it is 2.5% below February 2020,” assesses the analyst.

Other localities that negatively stood out in September were Santa Catarina, with a drop of 5.1%, and Paraná, retreating 4.3%, the biggest drops this month in absolute figures. Almeida highlights the major sectors that impacted the results in each state.

“The rate in Santa Catarina is mainly based on the results of the sectors of machinery and equipment and food. It is the second consecutive month of negative indexes, with a cumulative loss of 10.2%. The results in Paraná, which recorded the second major influence on the national result, were mainly affected by the sectors of petroleum products, vehicles and food. It is the fourth consecutive rate for the industry in Paraná, with a cumulative loss of 8.0%.”

On the positive side, Ceará, which grew 3.7%, offset most of the cumulative losses in the June-August period (-4.6%). Pernambuco, which rose 2.0%, stepped up the positive result reported in August, when it increased 0.1%.

“In Ceará, the sector of leather artifacts, traveling articles and footwear was the major responsible for the results, followed by the sector of beverages, both of them very active in that state. The rise in September comes after three consecutive months of negative results, when it accumulated a drop of 4.6%, and it helps to offset part of the loss of the previous months. In Pernambuco, the result is mainly explained by sugar, since that harvest resumed in the Northeast and industry in that state suffers a major influence of that sector in its production,” clarified the analyst of the survey.

Industry in Mato Grosso grew 30.8% in the third quarter

The industrial sector advanced 0.9% in the third quarter and interrupted the negative behavior observed since the third quarter of 2021 (-1.1%), all comparisons against the same period of the previous year. The changes in Mato Grosso (from 20.5% to 30.8%) and Amazonas (from 1.8% to 11.7%) registered the steepest gains.

“In Mato Grosso, the food sector was one of the major factors, especially slaughter for the production of frozen, fresh or cooled meat. In Amazonas, the sector of computer, electronic and optical products, especially the production of TVs, was one of the major sectors responsible for the rise. It is especially justified by the coming World Cup, which is a reason to leverage the manufacture of this type of product,” assesses Almeida.

More about the survey

The Regional PIM has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product from mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It presents, every month, indexes for 14 Federation Units, each one accounting for at least 1% of the national value of manufacturing, and also for the Northeast Region as a whole.  Amazonas, Pará, Ceará, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Northeast Region.

The survey results can also be consulted on Sidra, the IBGE database.