With widespread decline, industrial production drops 0.7% in September
November 01, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: November 03, 2022 09h39 AM
Industrial production dropped 0.7% from August to September, the second consecutive negative rate, accumulating a drop of 1.4% in the period, with a reduction in 21 out of the 26 surveyed industrial groups. With these results, the sector is 2.4% below the pre-pandemic level (February 2020) and 18.7% below the record level reached in May 2011.
In relation to September 2021, industry increased by 0.4%. In the cumulative index in the year (January-September 2022), there was a decrease of 1.1% and, in the last 12 months, of 2.3%. The data are from the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM), released today (Nov 1) by the IBGE.
“We can say that there is a reduction in the pace of industrial production. This is clearly seen not only in these two consecutive months of decline, but also in the higher frequency of negative rates in the last four months, with three negativechanges. With these latest results and a widespread profile of decline in production in September 2022, we realize that there has been a loss in the pace of production in recent months”, analyzes survey manager André Macedo.
The main negative influence among activities came from the food products industry (-2.9%), followed by basic metals (-7.6%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-2.6%). “Food products present two consecutive months of drop in production, totaling a decline of 6.1%. However, I would like to point out that in the three months prior to these two declines, this activity had increased by 6.7% on a cumulative basis. Products derived from soybeans, sugar and poultry meat are important items in this fall in the food sector in September”, comments the researcher.
In September 2022, basic metals registered the sharpest drop since January 2021 (-9.9%) in this type of comparison. “But it is important to notice that this industrial segment had two months of positive results, accumulating 2.4% in this period. The coke, petroleum products and biofuels sector accumulates a reduction of 6.9% in two consecutive months of loss and was pressured, this month, by petroleum and alcohol derivatives”, explains Mr. Macedo.
“This widespread profile of production drop, with only 5 sectors advancing their production pace, had not been seen since January 2022, when only 4 industrial segments showed growth. Among the activities that grew, the mining and quarrying sector (1.8%) had the greatest positive impact, with a highlight to advances in the extraction of crude petroleum, natural gas and iron ores. Among the major economic categories, all showed a decline in production in September”, explains the survey manager.
In comparison with September last year, the industrial sector increased by 0.4%
With positive results in two of the four major economic categories and in 12 of the 26 sectors surveyed, the comparison with the same month a year ago was positive by 0.4%, with the main positive influence coming from the segment of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies. (20.3%).
“The segment of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies is the one that exerts the most positive pressure and keeps the total industrial sector on the rise. It is worth noting the influence of the basis of comparison, since this activity dropped 8.8% in September last year. This helps to explain the magnitude of expansion observed in this month”, explains Macedo. The researcher also evaluates the most prominent items in the segment. “In terms of products that have a positive impact, we can mention cars, auto parts and trucks”.
“The basis of comparison must also be considered for the understanding of the 0.4% growth of the total of the industry, as in September last year the industrial sector retreated 4.1%”, adds Mr. Macedo.
More about the survey
PIM Brasil has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product of the mining and quarrying and transformation industries. On May 2014, a new series of monthly industrial production indices was introduced, after a reformulation: to update the sample of activities, products and respondents; to develop a new weighting structure for the indices based on the most recent industrial statistics, in order to integrate the needs of the project to implement the Series of National Accounts - reference 2010; and to adopt the new classifications of activities and products, used by other industry surveys since 2007, namely: the National Classification of Economic Activities - CNAE 2.0 and the List of Industry Products - PRODLIST-Industry.
The survey results can also be seen in the Sidra database.