Ten out of 15 places investigated by the Regional Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) expanded their output between February and March, when the national index grew 1.2%. The highest advances were registered in Amazonas (5.6%), Espírito Santo (4.6%), Pará (4.6%) and Rio de Janeiro (4.5%), whereas Pernambuco (-5.0%) recorded the most intense drop. Compared with March last year, the rise of 3.1% was followed by 11 out of 15 places surveyed. As for the cumulative index in 12 months, the advance of 3.1% of the industrial sector was followed by 14 out of 18 places, though only nine showed more dynamism. The data were released today (14) by the IBGE.

"The national industry grew 1.2% after five months without any significant growth. The growth in March comes as a compensatory movement to that period without any growth. It is worth reminding that macroeconomic factors still impact on the productive chain, like the accelerated inflation, directly affecting the available income of families, especially in the food sector and in the basic food basket. We also have a high interest rate and a reduction in the granting of credit, negatively impacting investments in relation to the industrial output, which cools down the pace of production. It somewhat explains the trend since October 2024," contextualizes Bernardo Almeida, an analyst of the survey.

Having expanded 5.6%, the industrial sector in Amazonas stood out among ten places that advanced between February and March. It was the highest rate in absolute terms and the third most influential positive figure this month.

"Industry in Amazonas grew 5.6% between February and March, being the third biggest influence after two months of negative figures, a period in which it accumulated a loss of 3.5%. Therefore, the growth in March offsets the loss in the previous months. Some sectors positively stood out, like petroleum products and biofuels and computer equipment, electronic and optical products, which are very present in the local industry," explains the analyst.

Likewise, Espírito Santo (4.6%), Pará (4.6%) and Rio de Janeiro (4.5%) registered other sharp expansions between February and March. As the state with the highest weight in the survey, São Paulo recorded the biggest positive influence in Brazil, growing 2.1% between February and March.

"After declining 0.6% in February, industry in São Paulo grew 2.1%. In March, sectors like petroleum products and biofuels, pharmaceutical and chemical were those that mostly influenced the growth. It is the most intense rate for São Paulo industry since June 2024, when it hit an expansion of 6.0%," assesses Almeida.

The analyst also highlights that, with the March´s result, São Paulo is 2.2% above its pre-pandemic level, registered in February 2020, and 19.9% below its peak, reached in March 2011.

On the other hand, Pernambuco (-5.0%) recorded the steepest drop in March. "After advancing 2.4% in the previous month, Pernambuco has the second biggest negative influence, though the highest drop in absolute terms. The March´s rate offset the advance reported in the previous month. The sectors that mostly contributed to the negative behavior of industry in Pernambuco were motor vehicles and chemical," reminds the PIM´s analyst.

The Northeast Region (-4.1%), Goiás (-2.1%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-1.2%), the biggest negative influence, registered negative figures in March 2025 as well.

Industry advances in 11 out of 18 places surveyed in relation to March 2024

Compared with March last year, the Brazilian industrial output grew 3.1%, with positive figures in 11 out of 18 places surveyed by the Regional PIM, considering that March 2025 (19 days) had less one business day than the same month a year ago (20). Paraná (15.1%), Santa Catarina (9.3%) and Pará (9.1%) recorded the sharpest advances in this comparison.

In Paraná, the rise was mainly leveraged by the positive behavior reported by the sectors of coke, petroleum products and biofuels; chemicals; food products; electrical machinery and apparatus; motor vehicles trailers and bodies; and machinery and equipment.

Mato Grosso do Sul (7.6%), Bahia (3.9%), Rio de Janeiro (3.2%), Espírito Santo (2.6%), Minas Gerais (1.8%), São Paulo (1.8%), Amazonas (1.6%) and Mato Grosso (0.8%) were the other places that expanded their production in the monthly index of March 2025.

In contrast, Pernambuco (-22.6%), Rio Grande do Norte (-19.1%) and Maranhão (-10.5%) registered two-digit retreats and the highest ones this month, pressed, to a great extent, by the activities of coke, petroleum products and biofuels, in the first place; of coke, petroleum products and biofuels and mining and quarrying industries, in the second one; and of mining and quarrying industries and basic metals, in the last one.

The Northeast Region (-4.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (-2.5%), Ceará (-2.0%) and Goiás (-1.5%) also recorded negative figures in the monthly index of March 2025.

Fourteen out of 18 places surveyed grew in the cumulative index in 12 months

Having advanced 3.1% in March 2025, the cumulative index over the last 12 months remained on the positive side, stepping up the pace of growth against the results of February and January. Fourteen out of 18 places surveyed reported positive rates in March 2025, though nine of them were more dynamic against the February´s indexes. Paraná (from 4.1% to 6.5%), Amazonas (from 0.3% to 1.5%), Santa Catarina (from 7.7% to 8.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (from 1.9% to 2.8%) and Bahia (from 1.8% to 2.5%) registered the major gains between February and March 2025, whereas Rio Grande do Norte (from -1.1% to -4.0%), Pernambuco (from 0.7% to -0.5%) and Maranhão (from 1.0% to 0.4%) registered the sharpest losses of pace between the two periods.

More about the survey

Regional PIM has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product from mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It brings monthly indexes for 17 Federation Units whose share are at least 0.5% of the total value added of the national industry and for the Northeast as a whole: Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Northeast Region.

The results of the survey can also be viewed on Sidra, the IBGE database. The next release of the Regional PIM, related to April 2025, will be on June 11.