The inflation preview, measured by the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), stood at 1.23% in February 2025, 1.12 percentage points (p.p.) above the rate registered in January 2025 (0.11%). The main influences came from Housing, which recorded an increase of 4.34% and an impact of 0.63 percentage points (p.p) on the general index and Education (4.78% and 0.29 p.p.). This is the main hike of IPCA-15 since April 2022 (1.73%) and the biggest for a month of February since 2016 (1.42%).

The only negative rates came from Wearing apparel (-0.08% and 0.00 p.p) and Communication (-0.06% and 0.00 p.p). In 12 months, the cumulative increase of 4.96%, above the 4.50% observed in the 12 immediately previous months. In February 2024, IPCA-15 was 0.78%. The results were released today (25) by the IBGE.

Among the nine groups surveyed, Housing (4.34%) recorded the main impact (0.63 p.p.) on the monthly index, whereas Education recorded the main change (4.78% and an impact of 0.29 p.p.). The other changes stood between -0.08% in Wearing apparel and 0.61% in Food and beverages. in Housing (4.34%), residential electricity was the subitem accounting for the main impact on the index (0.54 p.p.), having advanced 16.33% in February, after a drop observed in January (-15.46%), due to the incorporation of the Itaipu bonus. 

Also in Housing, the result of the water and sewage rate (0.52%) follow the price adjustment of 6.42% in the rates of Belo Horizonte (3.60%) and the price adjustment of 6.45% in fares of one of the concessionnaires in Porto Alegre (1.79%), in effect since January 1st. As for the subitem piped gas (-0.32%), the change of 2.01% in Rio de Janeiro resulted from a positive adjustment of 4.71%, starting on January 1st, an an average reduction of 1.78% in fares, starting on February 1st; in Curitiba (-1.25%), there was a drop of 3.01% in fares, on February 1st; and in São Paulo, the change of -1.41% reflects the full incorporation of fare reduction, in effect since December 2024.

In Education (4.78%), the main contribution came from regular courses (5.69%), due to priceadjustment observed in the beginning of the school year. The main changes were those of elementary school (7.50%), high school (7.26%) and higher education (4.08%).

In the Food and Beverages group (1.34%), food at home increased 0.63% in February, below the result of January (1.10%). The main positive changeswere those of carrots (17.62%) and ground coffee (11.63%) and, from the perspective of drops, potato (-8.17%), rice (-1.49%) and fruit (-1.18%)  stood out.

Food away from home decelerated from 0.93% in January to 0.56% in February. Both meals (0.43%) and snacks (0.77%) recorded changes below those in the previous month (0.96% and 0.98%, respectively).

In the group Transportation (0.44% and 0.09 p.p.), fuels rose 1.88%. Prices rises were registered in ethanol (3.22%), diesel (2.42%) and gasoline (1.71%), whereas vehicle gas had a negative result of 0.41%. Airfares dropped by 20.42%.

Also in Transportation, the subitem urban buses changed by 5.20%. In Curitiba (-5.11%), since January 5, the modal fare has cost half the previous price and, in Fortaleza (0.46%), a social fare was adopted on December 31 2024. There were other adjustments in fares:

• São Paulo (14.68%): adjustment of 13.64% since January 6;
• Rio de Janeiro (6.34%): adjustment of 9.30% since January 5;
• Belo Horizonte (5.31%): adjustment of 9.52% since January 1;
• Salvador (5.05%): adjustment of 7.69% since January 4;
• Recife (3.37%): adjustment of 4.87% since January 5;

Taxi fares (1.60%) also rose. In Salvador (4.79%), the entire price adjustment was incorporated on January 1st, and in Rio de Janeiro, rise amounted to 4.61%, as a result of the adjustment of 7.83% observed since January 2.

In São Paulo, rises in train and subway were 2.97%, as a result of the adjustment of 4.00% in fares, effected on January 6. The change of 9.69% in public transportation connections, in São Paulo, is a result of the combination of the aforementioned adjustments and free fares granted to the population on New Year's Day (01/01) and on the anniverary of the city (25/01). In Rio de Janeiro there was a price adjustment of 7.04% in train (2.68%), starting on February 2.

Recife recorded biggest change, and Goiânia, the smallest

As for regional indexes, the biggest change was that of Recife (1.49%), due to hikes in residential electricity (14.78%) and gasoline (3.74%). The smallest result was found in Goiânia (0.99%) as a result of the drops of airfares (-26.67%) and rice (-2.67%).

More about the survey

To calculate the IPCA-15, the methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage.  Prices were collected in the period from January 15 to February 12, 2025 (reference) and compared with those in effect from December 13, 2024 to January 14, 2025 (base).

The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, besides Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. Please take a look at the complete results on Sidra. The next release of IPCA-15, relative to March, will be on March 27.