According to the first forecast of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released today (14) by the IBGE, the Brazilian harvest of grains, cereals and legumes should add up to 311.0 million tonnes in 2025. This productio represents an increase of 5.8% in relation to the 2024 harvest or more 17.2 million tonnes.

The rise in the 2025 harvest is mainly due to the growth in the estimate for the output of soybeans (10.9% or 15 725 592 t), corn - 1st crop (9.1% or 2 081 661 t), rice (6.0% or 633 328 t) and beans - 1st crop (18.1% or 164 084 t). In contrast, upland cottonseed and corn -2nd crop should drop 0.7% or -36 928 tonnes and 1.8% or -1 703 556 tonnes, respectively.

"The 2024 harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds faced a series of climate problems in several Federation Units, especially lack of rainfall and excess of heat, as well as the excess of rainfall and floods in Rio Grande do Sul in April/May, which taken nearly five million tonnes out of the Brazilian harvest. Although the prices of the major products are not performing well, a weather close to an expected normality with a fair productivity in the crops might recover the Brazilian harvest in 2025, which is important for the control of inflation and increase of Brazilian exports," highlights Carlos Barradas, manager of the LSPA. 

The first estimate points out that the output of soybeans should increase 10.9% in 2025 compared with 2024, adding up to 160.2 million tonnes, which would characterize a new record in the production of this legume, surpassing the production registered in 2023. The estimate for the output of corn in 2025 is of 115.9 million tonnes, an increase of 0.3% in relation to the crop harvested in 2024. For corn - 1st crop, the estimate is of a production of 24.9 million tonnes, a growth of 9.1% in relation to the 2024 harvest, with a decline of 2.1% in the area to be harvested and a growth of 11.4% in the average yield of the crops. Concerning corn - 2nd crop, an output of 91.0 million tonnes is expected, a reduction of 1.8% compared with 2024. 

In the case of upland cottonseed, a production of 8.8 million tonnes is expected, virtually the same as the 2024 harvest (-0.7%), with a growth of 0.6% in the estimate of the area to be planted, which should reach 2.0 million hectares. In Mato Grosso, the biggest producer, which should account for 71.3% of the national overall, the expected output is of 6.3 million tonnes, a drop of 1.0% in relation to 2024. 

Considering the three harvests, the output of beans for 2025 should reach 3.3 million tonnes, an increase of 5.3% in relation to the crops harvested in 2024. The first crop is expected to produce 1.1 million tonnes; the second crop, 1.4 million tonnes and the third crop, 782.0 thousand tonnes. The production of paddy rice should reach 11.2 million tonnes, a growth of 6.0%, with an increase of 4.4% in the area to be harvested and a growth of 1.5% in the average yield. Therefore, both the output of beans and rice should meet the Brazilian internal consumption, probably not requiring to import these products. 

Estimate is of rising production in 12 Federation Units 

The 2025 output should grow in Paraná (13.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (12.4%), Mato Grosso do Sul (24.1%), Minas Gerais (5.0%), Goiás (2.0%), Bahia (3.8%), São Paulo (16.3%), Tocantins (0.3%), Santa Catarina (3.7%), Piauí (2.3%), Rondônia (10.6%) and Sergipe (0.3%). On the other hand, declines are expected in Mato Grosso (-0.6%), Maranhão (-0.1%) and Pará (-13.3%).  

2024 harvest should be 6.9% smaller than that of 2023 

The survey also brings the October´s estimate for the 2024 harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, which reached 293.8 million tonnes, 6.9% smaller than that obtained in 2023 (315.4 million tonnes), a reduction of 21.6 million tonnes. It reduced by 1,368,218 tonnes (-0.5%) in relation to September. The area to be harvested was of 78.7 million hectares, a growth of 1.1% over the area harvested in 2023, an increase of 864,711 hectares. The area to be harvested rose 27,382 hectares (0.0%) in relation to the previous month. 

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, and, together, account for 92.1% of the output estimate and for 87.2% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, the area for upland cottonseed rose 15.9%, paddy rice, 5.7%, beans, 6.7%, and  soybeans, 3.3%, declining 3.3% for corn (retreats of 9.5% in corn - 1st crop and 1.4% in corn - 2nd crop), 11.8% for wheat and 1.6% for sorghum. 

"In 2024, the Brazilian harvest of grins faced a series of climate problems in most producing Federation Units. The summer harvest, second harvests and winter harvest recorded losses. As a result, the potential production of the Brazilian harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was severely affected, due to the reduction in the productivity of the major crops. Except for coffee, whose prices are showing a good profitability, those of corn and soybeans are relatively low in the foreign market, which also jeopardized Brazil in terms of exports revenue and entrance of foreign currency in 2024. Nevertheless, Brazil obtained an excellent harvest of upland cottonseed this year, a record in the IBGE time series, in addition to the growth in the output of rice, beans and, for now, wheat, which is still being harvested," explains Barradas. 

Concerning the production, upland cottonseed registered an increase of 14.5%, rice, 2.8%, beans, 5.3%, wheat, 5.3%, decreasing 4.9% for soybeans, 11.9% for corn (reductions of 17.6% in corn - 1st crop and of 10.3% in corn - 2nd crop) and 8.7% for sorghum. 

A production of 144.5 million tonnes was estimated for soybeans. As for corn, the estimate was of 115.5 million tonnes (22.8 million tonnes for corn - first crop and 92.7 million tonnes for corn - 2nd crop). The output of rice was estimated at 10.6 million tonnes, that of wheat, at 8.2 million tonnes, that of upland cottonseed, at 8.9 million tonnes and that of sorghum, at 3.9 million tonnes. 

Stock capacity grows 5.4% in the first semester of 2024 

Also released today (14) by the IBGE, the Survey of Stocks showed a rise of 5.4% in the available capacity for storage in Brazil in the first semester of 2024 against the previous semester. Altogether, they are 222.3 million tonnes. Rio Grande do Sul remains as the state with the highest number of storage establishments: 2,444. Mato Grosso remains with the largest storage capacity, with 59.2 million tonnes.  

Concerning the types of storage, the survey showed that the silos still prevail, having hit 117.5 million tonnes. It represents more than half (52.9%) of the total capacity in Brazil. It increased 6.8% against the last semester. They are followed by automated and bulk warehouses, which hit 80.9 million tonnes of storage capacity, a rise of 4.0% in the same comparison. 

The survey also estimated the total stock of agricultural products at 87.9 million tonnes. The stocks of soybeans represented the highest volume (43.3 million tonnes), followed by the stocks of corn (32.7 million), rice (5.0 million), wheat (2.6 million) and coffee (0.8 million). Those products comprise 96.1% of the total volume stocked among the products monitored by this survey, being the remaining 3.9% comprised by cotton, black beans, colored beans and other grains and seeds. Compared with the same semester last year, the stocks of corn (91.4%) and rice (2.4%) increased, and those of soybeans (-7.8%), wheat (-19.4%) and coffee (-2.8%) reduced. 

About the LSPA  

Launched in November 1972 aiming at addressing the demand of users for monthly short-term statistical information, the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - LSPA provides estimates of planted area, harvested area, amount produced and average yield of products selected based on criteria of economic and social importance for Brazil. It does not only monitor each crop investigated in the calendar year of reference, from the intention to plant up to the end of the harvest, but also presents the harvest forecast for the coming year, with surveys in the months of October, November and December. LSPA is available on Sidra. The next release of the LSPA, related to November, will be on December 12.  

About the Survey of Stocks  

The survey, which encompasses the entire country, aims at providing statistical information about volume and spatial distribution of stocks of basic agricultural products, as well as of the units where they are stored. The data raised by the Survey of Stocks are key to public and private managers and are related to food security issues. The information is provided by owners, expert employees or accountants of the establishments surveyed and is answered face-to-face, through telephone, email or online. The results are released every semester. The data are available on Sidra.