Inflation preview
After two months of deflation, IPCA-15 stays at 0.16% in October
October 25, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 25, 2022 03h09 PM
After registering two consecutive months of deflation, inflation preview in October was 0.16%. Like in the last months, the retreat in the price of fuels (-6.14%) impacted the result, as pointed out by the Extended Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (25) by the IBGE. The index registers a cumulative rise of 4.80% in the year and of 6.85% in the last 12 months.
Only the groups of Transportation (-0.64%), Communication (-0.42%) and Household articles (-0.35%) retreated in October. Like in the previous month, the drop in Transportation (-0.64%) is linked with the retraction in the prices of four fuels surveyed: ethanol (-9.47%), gasoline (-5.92%), diesel fuel (-3.52%) and vehicular gas (-1.33%). The biggest negative impact among the sub-items of the IPCA-15 came from gasoline (0.29 percentage points).
The drop in Transportation was smaller than that in the previous month (-2.35%). In October, airfare rose 28.17%, an acceleration over September (8.20%) and caused the biggest individual positive impact (0.18 p.p.). Intercity bus also increased (0.42%), after adjustments of 12.00% in Fortaleza (7.52%) and of 5.00% in Porto Alegre (2.39%), as well as vehicle licensing (1.72%) and car repair (0.64%), two sub-items with a high weight in the group.
Among the rises, the biggest impact came from the group of Health and personal care (0.10 p.p.), whose prices rose 0.80% in October, mostly influenced by the increase in the prices of health insurance plans (1.44%). The acceleration was influenced by the adjustments authorized by the National Agency for Supplementary Health (ANS) in the health insurance plans signed before Law no. 9,656/98, in force since July. The increase in the prices of items of personal hygiene (1.10%) also influenced the rise of this group.
The highest change among the groups was registered by Wearing apparel (1.43%), highlighted by the rises in footwear and accessories (1.82%), children´s wearing apparel (1.71%) and jewels (1.00%). Men’s wearing apparel (1.54%) and women´s wearing apparel (0.98%) decelerated over the previous month.
Another result that helps to explain the return of the overall index to the positive side is the rise in Food and beverages (0.21%), a group that had declined in September. Food at home (0.14%) impacted this growth, also influenced by the increase in the prices of fruits (4.61%), potatoes (20.11%), tomatoes (6.25%) and onions (5.86%). On the other hand, long-life milk (-9.91%), soybean oil (-3.71%) and meat (0.56%) reduced their prices.
Food away from home decelerated, dropping from 0.59% in September to 0.37% in October. The rise in meals (0.44%) was higher than that in the previous month (0.36%), though snacks, whose prices had changed 0.94% in September, rose less (0.23%) in October.
The group of Housing rose 0.28% with the increase of 0.07% in electricity. Complementary Law no. 194/22 excluded transmission and distribution services from the calculation basis of the ICMS in some states. Yet, some cases continued to charge them and the October´s IPCA-15 was adjusted to offset the exclusion of the ICMS, accounting for what was charged from the consumers.
In a voluntary way, some concessionaires also decided to exclude transmission and distribution services from the calculation basis of the ICMS. It was accounted for in the standard bill, which, in these cases, had those services excluded from the calculation basis of the tax.
Water and sewage fees also rose (0.39%), impacted by the average adjustment of 13.22% applied in one of the concessionaires of Porto Alegre (3.36%) in the end of September.
In regional terms, nine out of 11 areas registered inflation in October. The highest change was recorded in Brasília (0.56%), impacted by the rise in the prices of airfare (37.59%) and the lowest one, in Curitiba (-0.24%), influenced by the drop of gasoline (-6.58%).
More about the survey
The IPCA-15 differs from the IPCA, the official inflation in Brazil, only in the period of data collection and geographic coverage. In order to estimate IPCA-15, the prices collected from September 15 to October 13, 2022 (reference) were compared with the ones in force from August 13 to September 14, 2022 (base).
The target population of the IPCA-15 encompasses households with earnings between 1 and 40 minimum wages, whatever the source, living in the following metropolitan areas: Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, as well as the Federal District and the municipality of Goiânia. Please take a look at the complete results at Sidra.
