Regional industry
Industrial production declines in 7 of the 15 areas surveyed in July
September 12, 2025 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 12, 2025 05h18 PM
Industrial production fell in 7 of the 15 areas surveyed by the IBGE in July, compared to June, driving the negative result (-0.2%) for the national industry. The declines were in Paraná (-2.7%), Bahia (-2.6%), Minas Gerais (-2.4%) and Pará (-2.1%), Mato Grosso (-1.6%), the Northeast Region (-1.1%), and Ceará (-0.3%).
Data are from the Regional Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM), released today (Sept 8).
According to the survey analyst, Bernardo Almeida, high interest rates help explain this slowdown in industrial production. "High interest rates directly lead to higher credit costs, compromising companies' investment decisions and household consumption. As a result of this porcess, the production chain is affected, which ends up slowing production to adapt to the current situation," he claims.
Paraná's decline from June to July, the steepest since December 2024 (-4.5%), interrupted two consecutive months of growth, a period in which it had accumulated a 1.8% gain. Bahia and Minas Gerais declined again, after gains of 2.0% and 2.8%, respectively, in June. Pará, meanwhile, accumulated a -4.7% drop in two consecutive months of production declines.
Bernardo explains that Minas Gerais exerted the main negative influence this month, driven by the decline in the production of Electrical machinery, equipment, and materials, and Machinery and equipment. "The second negative influence came from Paraná, also pressured by the reduction in Electrical machinery, equipment, and materials. Bahia accounted for the third largest negative influence due to declines in the petroleum derivatives sector," comments the survey analyst.
Amazonas, with no change (0.0%), repeated the production level recorded in June 2025. Espírito Santo (3.1%) saw the highest increase and offset part of the 5.6% loss recorded in the previous month. Rio Grande do Sul (1.4%), Santa Catarina (1.1%), Rio de Janeiro (1.0%), Pernambuco (0.9%), São Paulo (0.9%), and Goiás (0.5%) also posted positive results.
São Paulo, home to almost a third of the country's industry, was the main positive influence, but is still 0.4% below its pre-pandemic level. "São Paulo's industry had experienced three months of negative results, accumulating a 3.1% loss from April to June. In July, we observed that the sectors of food, petroleum derivatives, and cars had a positive impact," explains Mr. Almeida.
The survey analyst also highlights the results for the industries in Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo. "Rio de Janeiro's industrial production recorded its third-highest positive rate, accumulating 4.2% gains in the period, influenced by the mining and quarrying and chemical sectors. Espírito Santo's industry stands out thanks to a positive influence from the mining and quarrying and food sectors."
Industry declines in 8 of the 18 surveyed areas compared to July 2024
Compared to July 2024, the industrial sector changed 0.2% in July 2025, with 8 of the 18 surveyed areas showing positive results. This comparison includes the states of Maranhão, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Rio Grande do Norte. It is worth noting that July 2025 (23 days) had the same number of business days as the same month the previous year (23).
Espírito Santo (14.5%) and Rio de Janeiro (10.4%) saw the sharpest increases, driven by positive performance in the mining and quarrying industries sectors (crude petroleum oils, natural gas, and pelletized or sintered iron ore) in the former, and in the mining and quarrying industries sectors (crude petroleum oils and natural gas) in the latter.
Mato Grosso do Sul (7.4%), Pernambuco (4.5%), Santa Catarina (2.2%), Goiás (2.0%), and the Northeast Region (0.8%) also saw stronger increases than the national average (0.2%). Bahia (0.1%) completed the set of areas with production growth compared to July 2024.
Amazonas and Ceará, with no change (0.0%), repeated the production level recorded in July 2024. Rio Grande do Norte (-19.1%) and Mato Grosso (-14.6%) recorded steeper declines in that month, driven by the activities of coke, petroleum products, and biofuels (diesel fuel) in the former; and coke, petroleum products, and biofuels (ethyl alcohol), chemicals (mineral or chemical fertilizers of NPK formulas and potassium chloride), and beverages (beer, draft beer, and soft drinks) in the latter. Pará (-4.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (-2.7%), Maranhão (-1.4%), Paraná (-1.1%), São Paulo (-0.9%), and Minas Gerais (-0.7%) recorded the remaining negative results compared to July 2024.
More about the survey
Since the 1970s, the Regional PIM has produced short-term indicators on the behavior of real output in the mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It provides monthly indices for 17 Federation Units whose share is at least 0.5% of the total value of national industrial transformation, and for the Northeast as a whole: Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and Northeast Region.
The survey results are also available in Sidra, the IBGE database. The next Regional PIM release is scheduled for October 10th.
