The inflation preview for the first month of the year was 0.20%, a reduction of 0.05 percentage points (p.p.) in relation to the December preview. The group of Health and personal care, influenced by increases in personal hygiene items, exerted the greatest influence on the result of the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (27) by the IBGE.

Interrupting a sequence of seven consecutive months of decline, food at home rose 0.21%. As a result, Food and beverages, the group with the greatest weight in the index, accelerated from December (0.13%) to January (0.31%). In the year, the IPCA-15 accumulated an increase of 0.20% and, in the last 12 months, of 4.50%, above the rate of 4.41% observed in the immediately previous 12 months. In January 2025, the rate had been 0.11%.

Of the nine groups of products and services surveyed, Housing (-0.26%) and Transportation (-0.13%) showed a decline in the January rate. The other groups were between 0.05% of Education and 0.81% of Health and personal care.

In the group of Health and personal care, the highlights are personal hygiene items, which rose 1.38% compared to the 0.78% drop in December, and health insurance plans, with a 0.49% change.

With an increase of 0.73%, the group of Communication recorded the second biggest change, influenced by the sub-item telephone devices, which rose 2.57% in the month. After the 0.64% drop in December, the 0.43% change in Household articles was driven by the rise in TV, sound and computer equipment (1.79%).

Food and beverages, the group with the biggest weight in the index, accelerated from December (0.13%) to January (0.31%). Contributing to this result were increases in tomatoes (16.28%), potatoes (12.74%), fruits (1.65%) and meat (1.32%). On the dropping side, the highlights were the declines in long-life milk (-7.93%), rice (-2.02%) and ground coffee (-1.22%). Food away from home registered a change of 0.56% in January, with increases in snacks (0.77%) and meals (0.44%).

The group of Transportation showed a drop of 0.13% in January, influenced by airfare, which fell 8.92%, and urban buses, with a drop of 2.79%, especially due to the implementation of zero fare on Sundays and holidays in Belo Horizonte (-18.26%). Still regarding urban bus, fare adjustments were incorporated in Fortaleza, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, São Paulo and Belo Horizonte.  Furthermore, due to the fare reduction on holidays, Curitiba recorded a 0.37% reduction in urban bus and, in Brasília, the reduction was 0.69% due to free fare on Sundays and holidays, which are also in force in Belém (3.73%).

Still in Transportation, the 2.52% change in subway is due to the 0.69% reduction in Brasília, as a result of free fare on Sundays and holidays, and the 3.85% increase in São Paulo (4.58%), as of January 6, the same adjustment applied to trains (2.43%), with the same validity. Also in São Paulo (-0.94%), public transportation integration (-0.94%) takes into account, in addition to free services, the adjustment mentioned above. The taxi sub-item (0.42%) reflects the increase of 4.92% in Rio de Janeiro (1.94%) since January 2. On the rising side, fuels rose 1.25% with changes of 3.59% in ethanol, 1.01% in gasoline, 0.11% in vehicular gas and 0.03% in diesel fuel.

The group of Housing also showed a drop (-0.26%) in January, due to the 2.91 reduction in residential electricity, the biggest negative impact on the month's result, with -0.12 p.p. In December, the yellow tariff flag was in force, with an additional charge of R$1.885 for every 100 KWh consumed. In January, the current flag is green, at no additional cost to consumers. Additionally, there is the effect of the tariff adjustment of 21.95% at one of the concessionaires in Porto Alegre (-0.47%) since November 22.

Still in Housing, water and sewage fees (1.74%) reflects the following adjustments: 6.48% in São Paulo (2.75%) and 4.69% in Porto Alegre (0.99%), both since January 1st; 2.64% in Curitiba (2.49%) since December 15 and 9.75% in Rio de Janeiro (5.50%), in force since December 1st. Also note the 2.51% increase in piped gas, reflecting the 0.08% reduction in tariffs in Rio de Janeiro (-0.04%) since January 1st, and the 4.10% increase in São Paulo (4.51%) in effect since December 10.

Recife recorded the highest inflation preview in January and São Paulo, the lowest result

As for regional indexes, the biggest variation was observed in Recife (0.64%), due to increases in gasoline (2.57%) and personal hygiene items (1.23%). The lowest result occurred in São Paulo (-0.04%), with drops in long-life milk (-15.57%) and residential electricity (-3.11%).

More about the survey

To calculate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from December 13, 2025 to January 14, 2026 (reference) and compared with those in force from November 14 to December 12, 2025 (base). The indicator refers to families with an income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and covers the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, in addition to Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. The methodology used is the same as the IPCA, the difference is in the price collection period and geographic coverage. The next release of the IPCA-15 will be on February 27. See the complete results on Sidra.