IPCA-15
Inflation preview for October stands at 0.18%, with increase in fuel prices
October 24, 2025 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 24, 2025 01h19 PM
The inflation preview for October showed an increase of 0.18%, 0.30 percentage points (pp) below the rate recorded in September (0.48%). The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (24) by the IBGE, indicates that the greatest positive impact came from the Transportation group, with 0.41% and 0.08 pp, respectively. Year-to-date, the IPCA-15 has accumulated an increase of 3.94% and, in the last 12 months, the change was 4.94%, below the 5.32% observed in the preceding 12 months. In October 2024, the rate had been 0.54%.
In addition to Transportation, five of the nine groups of products and services surveyed showed an increase in October: Wearing apparel (0.45%), Personal expenses (0.42%), Health and personal care (0.24%), Housing (0.16%) and Education (0.09%). Household articles (-0.64%), Communication (-0.09%) and Food and beverages (-0.02%) showed negative changes.
Responsible for the greatest impact on the index this month, the Transportation group (0.41%) showed expansion compared to September, when it fell by 0.25%. The result was mainly influenced by fuels (1.16%) and airfares (4.39%). Ethanol (3.09%), gasoline (0.99%) and diesel fuel (0.01%) showed increases, while vehicular gas fell by 0.40%. The sub-items urban bus (0.32%) and subway (0.03%) also contributed to the positive result of the group.
In Personal expenses (0.42%), the highlights this month were cinema, theater and concerts (2.05%), tourist packages (1.97%) and domestic workers (0.52%). In the Housing group, which decelerated from 3.31% to 0.16% between September and October, the main negative contribution came from residential electricity, which went from 12.17% to -1.09%, due to the implementation of the red tariff flag level 1 from October onwards, adding R$ 4.46 to the electricity bill for every 100 kWh consumed. Among the sub-items with increases, bottled gas (1.44%) and residential rent (0.95%) stood out.
In Food and beverages (-0.02%), food at home registered a change of -0.10%, after a decrease of 0.63% in the previous month. Contributing to this result were decreases in onions (-7.65%), chicken eggs (-3.01%), rice (-1.37%), and long-life milk (-1.00%). On the other hand, soybean oil (4.25%) and fruits (2.07%) rose and stood out.
Regarding food away from home, there was a deceleration from September (0.36%) to October (0.19%), due to less intense increases in snacks (from 0.70% in September to 0.42% in October) and meals (from 0.20% to 0.06%).
As for regional indices, seven of the 11 areas surveyed experienced price increases in October. The largest change was recorded in Goiânia (1.30%), due to increases in ethanol (23.80%) and gasoline (10.36%). The lowest result occurred in Belém (-0.14%), which showed a decrease in the prices of acai berries (-6.77%) and whole chicken (-3.55%).
More about the survey
For the calculation of the IPCA-15, prices were collected from September 16 to October 13, 2025 (reference period) and compared with those in effect from August 15 to September 15, 2025 (base period). The indicator refers to families with incomes ranging from 1 to 40 minimum wages and covers the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, as well as Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. The methodology used is the same as that of the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and geographical coverage. See the complete results in Sidra. The next release of the IPCA-15, referring to November, will be on the 26th of the same month.
