IPCA-15
Deceleration of beef prices results in inflation preview of 0.71% in January
January 23, 2020 09h00 AM | Last Updated: January 24, 2020 11h35 AM
The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), official inflation preview, was 0.71% in January, after reaching 1.05% in December 2019, as released today (23) by the IBGE. That is the highest result for a month of January since 2016, when the index was 0.92%. In 2 months, the indicator had a cumulative result of 4.34%, above the 3.91% registered in the previous 12 months. In January, 2019, the rate was 0.30%.
The deceleration was pushed by the beef sector, which changed from an increase of 17.71% in September to 4.83% in January, but it recorded again the highest individual contribution to the index, with 0.15 percentage points (pp). The price of fruits (3.98%) and whole chicken (4.96%), however, accelerated in comparison with December. Nevertheless, onion edged down 5.43%.
Among the nine groups of products and services surveyed, seven showed increase from December to January. Food and beverage recorded the highest change (1.83%) and the major impact (0.45 pp). In the second position, Transportation, (0.92%), affected by gasoline, kept its upward trend in January (2.64%) and contributed with the second major individual impact to the index (0.11 pp). All the surveyed regions recorded increase in fuels.
Also in the Transportation group, the urban buses result (0.30%) was a consequence of adjustments in bus tickets in Brasilia and São Paulo. The same occurred to cabs (0.28%), due to the average increase of 2.20% in the fares in Rio de Janeiro, and in the bus tickets for interstate buses (2.91%), in Salvador. On the other hand, air fares decreased – 6.45 in January, after an increase of 15.63% recorded in the IPCA-15 in December.
The highest deflation came from Housing (-0.14%), influenced by electricity (-2.11%), which presented the major individual negative impact (-0.08 pp) on the indicator. The reduction in the price of electricity bills was due to changes in the yellow tariff flag in January, which adds R$ 1.34 per each 100 kw/hour consumed. Moreover, in Housing, piped natural gas and bottled gas changed 0.49% and 0.21%, respectively.
The other groups stood between the decrease of 0.01% in Household articles and the increase of 0.47% in Personal expenses.
The IPCA-refers to families with incomes from 1 to 40 minimum wages living in the main metropolitan regions of Brazil, besides Brasília and Goiânia. In January, all the surveyed areas recorded increase in inflation. The highest result was in Belém (1.13%) influenced by chickenTthe lowest index was recorded in Brasília (0.29%), due to the fall in airfare prices.
New IPCA basket
In order to estimate the IPCA-15, the prices were collected in the period between December 12 and January 14. The result released today (23) was the last one based on the basket of products and services that compose the inflation rate in effect since 2012. According to results from the latest Consumer Expenditure Survey (POF), conducted between 2017 and 2018, the index elements were modified to follow the changes in the population’s consumption habits.
From February on, the official inflation will be released by the IBGE based on the new basket of products and services, which includes 56 new elements, such transportation applications, streaming services, pet shop (hygiene) services, and products for fast consumption, like instant noodles. Other examples are services relates to a healthy lifestyle and aesthetics, like eyebrow design, hairdresser’s and barber’s, professional shaving and physical activity. Those and other changes were the subject in the first edition of Lentes.com, which celebrated the IPCA 40th anniversary.
