The 0.7% increase in national industrial production in April 2026 was driven by ten of the 15 locations surveyed by the IBGE, compared to March, in the seasonally adjusted series. Bahia (3.0%), Ceará (2.3%), Espírito Santo (2.1%), and Minas Gerais (2.1%) showed the largest increases. Santa Catarina (1.7%), Goiás (1.7%), Rio de Janeiro (1.5%), the Northeast Region (1.4%), São Paulo (0.9%), and Paraná (0.8%) completed the set of locations with positive rates in the month. The most significant declines were in Mato Grosso (-5.2%), Pará (-5.0%), and Pernambuco (-3.6%), while Rio Grande do Sul (-1.6%) and Amazonas (-0.8%) also showed negative results. This information comes from the Monthly Regional Survey of Industry, released today by the IBGE.

The analyst responsible for this survey, Bernardo Almeida, explains that “although the effects of a restrictive monetary policy on industrial production remain, with interest rates at high levels, decreasing investments, there is a positive perspective regarding the labor market. The effects of a lower unemployment rate, with an increase in the wage bill, have positive repercussions on industrial production. Thus, from March to April, São Paulo was the main positive influence, positioning itself 0.8% above its pre-pandemic level (Feb/20), but still 21.0% below its highest level, reached in March 2011. The mining and quarrying and petroleum derivative sectors were important influences in this positive movement of São Paulo's industry. Amionh the negative results, Pará was the main influence, after three months of positive rates, when it accumulated a gain of 17.1%. In April, the mining and quarrying and basic metal sectors contributed to the negative performance of Pará's industry.”

Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro lead compared to April 2025

Compared to April last year, industry grew by 2.7%, with increases in twelve of the eighteen locations surveyed. With double-digit rates, Espírito Santo (32.9%) and Rio de Janeiro (10.1%) had the highest increases in industrial production in April. The Espírito Santo industry was mainly driven by mining and quarrying industries (petroleum, iron ore, and natural gas). In Rio de Janeiro, in addition to petroleum and gas extraction, the production of coke, petroleum derivatives, and biofuels also stood out.

In Goiás (6.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (5.3%), Minas Gerais (3.7%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (3.6%), industrial production also grew above the national average (2.7%). Other locations with positive rates in April were Mato Grosso (1.5%), São Paulo (1.4%), Paraná (1.1%), Bahia (1.0%), Santa Catarina (0.4%), and the Northeast Region (0.4%). The most significant decline occurred in industrial activities in Rio Grande do Norte (-13.6%), mainly due to the production of coke, petroleum products, and biofuels (diesel fuel). Other negative results in April came from Maranhão (-5.4%), Amazonas (-4.2%), Pernambuco (-3.8%), Pará (-2.8%), and Ceará (-0.4%).

Bernardo emphasizes that mining and quarrying industries stood out in the increases because “they have been playing a relevant role in both national and regional industry. While the contractionary effects of monetary policy put pressure on the manufacturing industry and its production chain, the mining and quarrying industry, with its specific characteristics, has shown a production rate that is sometimes capable of mitigating these negative effects on industrial production.”

Ten out of 18 states accumulate highs in 2026, especially Espírito Santo and Pernambuco

The country's industry is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2026, with positive rates in ten of the 18 locations surveyed by the IBGE. Espírito Santo (25.3%) and Pernambuco (19.7%) lead the way with double-digit growth. In Espírito Santo's case, the leading growth is due to the extraction of petroleum, gas, and iron ore, while in Pernambuco, it's due to the production of coke, petroleum derivatives, and biofuels.

Six states are projected to see growth in 2026 above the national average (1.7%): Mato Grosso do Sul (8.0%), Rio de Janeiro (7.3%), Mato Grosso (4.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (3.3%), the Northeast Region (2.0%), and Minas Gerais (1.8%). The remaining states with positive growth for 2026 are Goiás (1.1%) and Pará (0.4%). On the other hand, eight states have accumulated negative rates in industrial production in 2026, notably Rio Grande do Norte (-17.9%), pressured by the activity of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (diesel fuel). The other cumulative negative figures are from Bahia (-4.6%), Maranhão (-4.5%), Ceará (-4.4%), Amazonas (-3.5%), Santa Catarina (-2.8%), Paraná (-1.1%) and São Paulo (-0.4%).

Learn more about the Regional Monthly Survey of Industry:

The Regional PIM has been producing short-term indicators related to the behavior of the real output of mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries since the 1970s. The report provides monthly indices for 17 Federation Units whose participation is at least 0.5% of the total value of national industrial transformation: Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, and Goiás. In addition, as its 18th geographical segment, the Regional PIM has included the Northeast Region.

The survey results can also be consulted on Sidra, the IBGE database. The next release of Regional PIM, referring to May 2026, is scheduled for July 10th.

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