After registering 0.33% in July, the inflation preview dropped 0.14% in August. Released today (26) by the IBGE, the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) was the lowest one since September 2022 (-0.37%) and the first negative index since July 2023 (-0.07%). In the year, the IPCA-15 accumulated a rise of 3.26% and, in 12 months, of 4.95%, below the rate of 5.30% registered in the 12 immediately previous months. In August 2024, the IPCA-15 had been 0.19%.

The most intense change and negative impact came from the group of Housing (-1.13% and -0.17 p.p.), due to the fall in residential electricity (-4.93%), the sub-item that exerted the most intense impact on the index (-0.20 p.p.). Food and beverages (-0.53% and -0.12 p.p.) and transportation (-0.47% and -0.10 p.p.), the groups with the highest weight in the IPCA-15 together with Housing, recorded drops in August as well.

In addition, Communication registered a drop (-0.17% and -0.01 p.p.) and the other groups reported either positive or null changes and impacts: Personal expenses (1.09% and 0.11 p.p.), Education (0.78% and 0.05 p.p.), Health and personal care (0.64% and 0.09 p.p.), Wearing apparel (0.17% and 0.01 p.p.) and Household articles (0.03% and 0.00, p.p.).

Housing left a 0.98% increase in July to a 1.13% drop in August. The group was influenced by electricity, which retreated 4.93% in August, due to the incorporation of the Itaipu bonus, despite being in force the red tariff flag level 2, which adds R$7.87 to the fare per 100 kWh consumed. In July, the red tariff flag level 1 was in force.

Energy also suffered a series of fare adjustments: 4.25% in Belém (-6.47%), since August 7; 13.97% in one of the concessionaires in São Paulo (-0.88%), in force since July 4; 1.97% in Curitiba (-6.19%), in force since June 24; 14.19% in one of the concessionaires in Porto Alegre (-8.38%), in force since June 19; and a reduction of 2.16% in one of the concessionaires of Rio de Janeiro (-6.49%), since June 17.

Also in Housing, water and sewage fares (0.29%) included the adjustment of 4.97% in Salvador (4.64%), in force since July 18. Piped gas (0.17%) was adjusted by 6.41% in the fares in Curitiba (2.99%) since August 1st and by a 1.22% reduction in Rio de Janeiro (-0.57%) since August 1st.

The group of Food and beverages (-0.53%) showed a negative result for the third consecutive month, stepping up the fall compared to July (-0.06%) and June (-0.02%). Food at home retreated 1.02% in August, especially mango (-20.99%), potatoes (-18.77%), onion (-13.83%), tomatoes (-7.71%), rice (-3.12%) and meat (-0.94%). Food away from home rose 0.71% in August, due to the rise in snacks (1.44%), the second highest positive impact on the index (0.03 p.p.), and in meals (0.40%).

Transportation went from 0.67% in July to -0.47% in August. The result was driven by the drops in airfare (-2.59%), new cars (-1.32%) and gasoline (-1.14%). In the group of fuels (-1.18%), diesel fuel (-0.20%), vehicular gas (-0.25%) and ethanol (-1.98%) retreated as well.

In addition, the result was reflected by the gratuity granted on Sundays and holidays in subway (0.19%) in Brasilia (2.80%), and in urban bus (0.49%) in Brasilia (2.80%) and Belém (6.68%), as well as the reduction of fare on Sundays and holidays in Curitiba (2.94%). Additionally, taxi (0.63%) incorporates the average adjustment of 24.53% in the fare in Belém (2.46%) since August 12, and of 12.37% in the fare in São Paulo (1.65%) since August 11.

On the rise, the group of Personal expenses accelerated from 0.25% in July to 1.09% in August. In force since July 9, the adjustment in games of chance (11.45%), sub-item with the biggest positive impact in August (0.05p.p.), stood out.

In Health and personal care, the index went from 0.21% to 0.64% between July and August. The biggest contributions came from personal hygiene items (1.07% and 0.04 p.p.) and health insurance plans (0.51% and 0.02 p.p.), which reflects the incorporation of adjustments authorized by the National Regulatory Agency for Private Health Insurance and Plans (ANS).

On the other hand, the group of Education changed 0.78% in August, with the incorporation of adjustments in regular courses (0.80%), mainly due to the sub-items higher education (1.24%) and primary school (0.68%). The rise in other courses (0.93%) was influenced by language courses (1.85%).

In regional terms, São Paulo (0.13%) was the only area with a positive change, due to the highs of regular courses (1.14%) and personal hygiene (1.33%). The lowest result occurred in Belém (-0.61%), influenced by the drop in the prices of electricity (-6.47%) and gasoline (-2.75%).

More about the survey

In order to estimate the IPCA-15, the prices collected from July 16 to August 14 (reference) were compared with the ones in force from June 14 to July 15 (base). The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, besides Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. The methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage. See the complete results on Sidra.  The next release of the IPCA-15, relative to September, and of the IPCA-E, related to the third quarter, will be on September 25.