Inflation preview
Inflation preview stands at 0.30% in July
July 25, 2024 09h00 AM | Last Updated: July 26, 2024 10h03 PM
The inflation preview of July stood at 0.30%, after recording 0.39% in June. The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (25) by the IBGE, indicates that the biggest change (1.12%) and the main impact (0.23 percentage points) came from Transportation. It was followed by Housing (0.49% and 0.07 p.p) and Health and personal care (0.33% and 0.05 p.p).
In the last 12 months, IPCA-15 changed by 4.45%, above the 4.06% observed fin the previous 12 months. In July 2023, the rate was -0.07%.
Seven of the nine groups of products and services surveyed recorded increases in July. Food and beverages (-0.44%) and Wearing apparel (-0.08%) were the only groups recording negative changes.
In the Food and Beverages group (-0.44%), food at home fell by 0.70% in July. The main contribution came from carrot (-21.60%), tomato (-17.94%), onions (-7.89%) and fruit (-2.88%). On the other hand, there were increases in long-life milk (2.58%) and ground coffee (2.54%).
Food away from home (0.25%) slowed down against June (0.59%), due to less intense increases in snacks (from 0.80% in June to 0.24% in July) and meals (0.51% in June to 0.23% in July).
The Housing group (0.49%) was mainly influenced by residential electricity (1.20% and 0.05 p.p.). In July, the yellow tariff flag came into force, which adds R$1.885 to every 100 kwh consumed. The increase was also influenced by the following adjustments in fares: 6.76% in Belo Horizonte (3.40%), as of May 28; and -2.43% in one of the concessionaires in São Paulo (0.42%), as of July 4.
Also in Housing, the rise of water and sewage fares (0.22%) is due to the following adjustments in fares: 9.85% in Brasília (5.02%), since June 1; and 2.95% in Curitiba (0.09%), since May 17. In piped gas (-0.28%), the result in Rio de Janeiro (-0.93%) is due to an average adjustment of 1.75%, since June 1st.
As for Transportation (1.12% and 0.23 p.p.), airfares rose by 19.21% and contributed 0.12 p.p. to the July index. Considering fuels (1.39%) gasoline (1.43%), ethanol (1.78%) and diesel (0.09%) rose, while vehicular gas (-0.25%) recorded a drop in prices.
As for the regional indexes, ten areas of coverage rose in July. The biggest change was recorded in Brasília (0.61%), due to increases in airfares (13.68%), water and sewage fares (5.02%) and gasoline (2.94%). The lowest rate was in Recife (-0.05%), with decreases in prices of tomato (-37.13%) and carrots (-28.27%).
More about the survey
To calculate the IPCA-15, the methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage. In order to estimate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from June 15 to July 15, 2024 (reference) and compared with those in effect from May 16 to May 14, 2024 (base).
The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, besides Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. See the complete results at Sidra. The next release of IPCA-15, relative to July, will be on August 27.
