Regional industry
Industrial activity drops in nine of the 15 areas surveyed by the IBGE
July 11, 2025 09h00 AM | Last Updated: July 14, 2025 06h26 PM
In May 2025, the drop of 0.5% in national industry from April, in the seasonally adjusted series, was followed by nine of the 15 areas surveyed by the IBGE: Mato Grosso (-7.0%), Bahia (-3.7%) Amazonas (-3.3%), Minas Gerais (-1.9%), Northeast Region (1.3%), Goiás (-1.1%), São Paulo (-0.8%) Pernambuco (-0.6%) and Santa Catarina (-0.2%). Data come from the Regional Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) Regional, released today (11) by the IBGE.
Mato Grosso has had a cumulative drop of 8.9% in the last two months. Bahia, meanwhile, interrupted two consecutive months of increase, a period when it grew 2.3%, and Amazonas intensified the drop observed in April (-1.3%). For Bernardo Almeida, analyst of the Monthly Industrial Survey, "some well-known factors help account for the loss of pace in industrial production and the predominance of areas with negative results: high interest rates, reducing investment in production lines; uncertainties in both the domestic and international markets; inflation impacting household consumption and disposable income, forcing production to adapt to a more subdued demand."
On the other hand, industrial activity in Espírito Santo had a double-digit growth (16.2%), the highest in the month and the highest rate for this state since January 2023 (24.2%). "The extractive sector, which is very active within Espírito Santo's industry, drove and contributed to its positive performance, in contrast to the performance of national industry this month," Almeida observes. Also, Ceará (3.5%), Rio de Janeiro (2.0%), Paraná (1.3%), Pará (0.9%), and Rio Grande do Sul (0.2%) also recorded positive results in May 2025.
Against May 2024, industrial activity increased in 11 of the 18 areas
Against May 2024, the industrial sector grew 3.3%, with positive results in 11 of the 18 areas surveyed. The biggest increases were in Rio Grande do Sul (29.1%) and Espírito Santo (23.9%), both with double-digit growth rates. The industry in Rio Grande do Sul was driven primarily by chemicals, food products, machinery and equipment, tobacco products, leather items, travel articles and footwear, and motor vehicles, trailers, and bodies. In Espírito Santo, the boost came from mining and quarrying industries. According to Bernardo, "both rates can be explained by the low comparison bases in May 2024, as, in the same period a year ago, industry in Rio Grande do Sul faced shutdowns at several production units due to the floods." ,
Nine of the 18 areas surveyed record cumulative increase in industry in 2025
The cumulative increase of industry in the year, against the same period in 2024, reached 1.8%, with positive results in nine of the eighteen areas surveyed. The leaders were Pará (9.6%) and Paraná (5.7%). Mining and quarrying industries and basic metals were prominent in Pará. "The increase in the production of manganese, copper, and iron ore contributed to the positive performance of Pará's industry in this type of comparison," notes the analyst. In Paraná, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies, coke, petroleum products and biofuels, machinery, electrical equipment and materials, and chemical products recorded increases. "The positive performance of industry in Paraná this month showed a significant influence from these sectors, with an increase in production primarily of cars and car pieces in the former, and diesel and automotive gasoline in the latter."
São Paulo's industry shows declines in all three comparisons
In May, industrial activity in São Paulo dropped 0.8% from April, with seasonal adjustment, and fell 1.3% from May 2024. Also, from January to May (against the same period last year), São Paulo's industry recorded a decline of 0.7%.
The Furthermore, the seasonally adjusted index shows that São Paulo's industry is 22.1% below its peak, which was reached in March 2011. "The seasonally adjusted result, against April, the industry of São Paulo reached its second consecutive negative rate, with a cumulative loss of 2.5% in the period. With this result, it is 0.6% below its pre-pandemic level, which was established in February 2020. Furthermore, the extractive sector also contributed to this negative performance in May. In year-over-year comparisons, compared to May 2024 and cumulative in the year, the pharmaceutical sector accounts for the main negative contributions."
More about the survey
Since the 1970s, the Regional PIM has produced short-term indicators on the behavior of real output in mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It provides monthly indices for 17 states that account for at least 0.5% of the total value of national industrial manufacturing and for the Northeast region as a whole: Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás, and the Northeast Region.
The survey results can also be found in Sidra, the IBGE database. The next Regional PIM release, for June 2025, will be on July 11th.
