Agricultura
Estimate indicates decrease, but 2019 is expected to have 3rd biggest harvest in the time series
November 08, 2018 09h00 AM | Last Updated: November 08, 2018 05h35 PM
The first output estimate for next year points to a decrease of 0.2% agains the 2018 figure. Nevertheless, the expected 226.7 million metric tons (t) of cereals, legumes and oilseeds make up the third biggest estimate in the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production time series, which started in 1975. The current result is in the third position after that of 2017 (240.6 million) and 2016 (227.2 million). Planted area is expected to increae by 1.1% next year.
After a record harvest in 2018, the output of soybeans is expected to fall by 1%, and to reach 116.6 million metric tons. Despite the increase of 1.1% in planted area, equivalent to 35.3 million hectares (ha), there was decrease of 2.3% in average yield, which is estimated at 3,303 kg/ha, caused by uncertainties related to climate during the crop cycle.
Among the major producer of soybeans, Mato Grosso, which iaccounts for 26.6% of the total amount produced in the country, is estimated to harvest 31 million metric tons (t), a decrease of 2% in comparison with 2018, despite the increase of 0.7% in the planted area. Paraná, the second main producer and responsible for 17% of the national output , is expected to produce 19.8 million metric tons (t), an increase of 2.8%, due to the increment of 2.6% in the average yield. And Rio Grande do Sul, the third main producer of this oilseed, had an estimated output of 18.6 metric tons (t), with an increase of 5.8% in relation to 2018.
“With taxation of the American soybeans imposed by China, the Brailian producers expect an increase of the international demand for soybeans and of the profitability of the product", says the IBGE researcher Carlos Antônio Barradas.
In terms of corn, the first estimate for 2019 is of an output of 83.8 million metric tons (t), with an increase of 1.4% in relation to that of 2018. For corn 1st-crop, the expected output is 25.4 million metic tons (t), 1.9% smaller than in the same period of 2018. The estimated increase in the area to be planted is 0.4%; in the area to be harvested, 1.1%, whereas the average yield must fall by 3%. For corn 2nd-crop, the estimated output is 58.4 million metric tons (t), an increase of 2.9% in relation to 2018.
“We had a record harvest in 2017 which, despite the decrease observed, 2018 scored the second biggest result. Now, the small decrease expected for 2019 shows that we will have a good harvest even so”, highlights the reseacher.
In 2018, coffee has biggest harvest in the whole time series
As for the 2008 harvest, the tenth estimate amouted to 227.2 million metric tons (t), 5.6% below that of 2017 (240.6 million metric tons, t), with a decrease of 13.4 million t. The area to be harvested was estimated at 60.8 million ha, with a decrease of 356.2 thousand ha, against 2017.
The Brazilian output of coffee this year was another record in the IBGE time series. The national output is expected to be 3.5 million t, or 58.6 million 60-kg bags, with an increase of 2% in relation to the previous month.
Storage of grains increase 1.2% in the first semester
The Survey of Stocks, also released today, shows that the total ustorage capacity recorded an increase of 1.2% in the first semester of 2018, against that second semester of 2017, amounting to 169 million t. In terms of useful storage capacity, silos prevailed in the country, with 81.1 million t, which make up 48% of the total useful capacity. Automated and bulk warehouses accounted for 63.6 million t of storage capacity, whereas conventional, structural and inflatable warehouses conventional, structural and inflatable warehouses represented 24.3 million t.
