Domestic industrial prices fell 0.30% in July compared to June (-1.27%), the sixth consecutive negative rate after a series of 12 consecutive positive results between February 2024 and January 2025. The Producer Price Index (PPI) thus rose 1.36% over 12 months, and the year-to-date figure was -3.42%. In July 2024, the monthly change was 1.53%.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries measures "factory-gate prices" of products, excluding taxes and freight, and covers the broad economic categories.

In July 2025, 12 of the 24 industrial activities surveyed showed negative price changes compared to the previous month, in line with the change in the index for the general industry. In June of this year, 14 activities had lower average prices compared to May. Data was released today (5) by the IBGE.

The industrial activities responsible for the greatest influences on the July result were food (-0.33 percentage points), basic metals (-0.11 percentage points), Mining and Quarrying industries (0.10 percentage points), and machinery and equipment manufacturing (0.06 percentage points).

"This is the sixth consecutive negative result for the IPP, but at a less intense level than those observed in June, which was -1.27%, and in May, which was -1.21%. However, when we look at the activities surveyed, there is a balance between price declines and increases. Twelve activities had lower prices compared to June, and 12 activities had higher prices. The strongest influence, from the food sector, was negative and helps explain the overall industrial result. Excluding food, the other activities had a combined positive influence of 0.03 percentage points. In other words, one of the main reasons for the IPP remaining in the negative range in July is the decline in food prices," explains Murilo Alvim, IPP manager.

In terms of change, Mining and Quarrying industries (2.42%), basic metals (-1.65%), fabricated metal products (-1.54%), and perfumery, soaps, and cleaning products (1.41%) were the highlights in July.

The food sector (-1.33%) again showed a negative change, the sixth of the year, but less intense than that observed in June (-3.42%). Thus, the year-to-date figure is -7.17%, the largest cumulative decline through July in the entire time series of the survey, which began in 2010. In July 2025, prices were 3.50% higher than in July 2024, the lowest result since May 2024 (-1.41%). July's result, year-to-date, represented the fourth highest change recorded among the 24 industrial sectors analyzed. In this same context, the food sector ranked first in the ranking of most significant influences on the monthly change (-0.33 percentage points), the year-to-date (-1.85 percentage points), and the 12-month (0.85 percentage points).

"Regarding the food sector, we can highlight the lower sugar prices, a decline that is in line with the drop in international prices, largely due to an increase in supply in major producing countries such as India, Thailand, and Brazil. This caused the sugar manufacturing and refining group to experience a 4.31% decline in July and was the main influence on the sector's results. Another relevant aspect was the reduction in coffee prices, explained by lower production costs, largely due to the start of the new crop in the country. This caused the coffee roasting and grinding group to experience the largest monthly drop in its entire time series, with a 6.20% decline in July. The declines seen in orange juice and soybean derivatives also contributed," Mr. Alvim highlights. He notes that all of these products, because they are exportable, have their price fluctuations driven by the dollar's fluctuation.

From June to July 2025, basic metals (-1.65%) had the second-largest influence (-0.11 percentage points) on the negative performance of the industry, among all the sectors surveyed. This is the seventh consecutive month of decline, during which it accumulated a decrease of 11.01%, the second largest change. The 12-month cumulative result, after 13 consecutive positive rates, showed a negative figure, with prices for the activity in July 2025 averaging 0.14% lower than in July 2024.

With the third largest influence on the PPI in July, Mining and Quarrying industries (0.10 percentage points) accelerated the growth observed in June. This represented the largest monthly change (2.42%) among all the industrial sectors surveyed. However, the indicators for the year-to-date (-12.82%) and the last 12 months (-9.85%) remained negative. It is worth remembering that Mining and Quarrying industries also stood out in terms of their influence in the year to date (-0.62 pp in -3.42%) and in the last 12 months (-0.48 pp in 1.36%), representing, respectively, the third and second most intense influences.

"The decline in basic metals was driven primarily by lower prices for products in the steel industry group, which, in turn, fell 2.69% in the month, in line with a greater supply of steel in the market and the accumulated decline in iron ore prices, despite the commodity's one-off increase in July. On the other hand, the rise in iron ore prices, a movement that paralleled international market prices, was the main driver of the mining and quarrying sector's results, which went against the industry average and rose 2.42% in the month. This was the main positive influence on the overall IPP result, slightly stemming the decline observed in the index," adds Mr. Alvim.

From the perspective of broad economic categories, the price change observed from June to July 2025 had the following repercussions: a 0.51% change in capital goods (BK); a -0.32% change in intermediate goods (BI); and -0.43% in consumer goods (BC). The change observed in durable consumer goods (BCD) was 0.30%, while in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (BCND) it was -0.57%. Intermediate goods (-0.17 percentage points) were the ones that most influenced the IPP in July.

Learn more about the IPP

The IPP tracks the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, and their evolution over time, signaling short-term inflationary trends in the country. It is an essential indicator for macroeconomic monitoring and a valuable analytical tool for decision-makers, both public and private.

The survey investigates, in just over 2,100 companies, the prices received by producers, excluding taxes, tariffs, and freight, set according to the most common commercial practices. Approximately 6,000 prices are collected monthly. The complete IPP tables are available on Sidra. The next IPP release, for August, will be on October 10th.