Inflation preview
Inflation preview of June stands at 0.26%
June 26, 2025 09h00 AM | Last Updated: June 27, 2025 12h41 AM
The June inflation preview stood at 0.26%, after a rate of 0.36% recorded in May. The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (26) by the IBGE, indicates that the group with the greatest impact on the index was Housing, with an increase of 1.08% and 0.16 percentage points, followed by Wearing apparel (0.51%). The Food and beverage group recorded its first drop (-0.02%), after nine consecutive months of increases.
The sub-items accounting for the greatest positive impacts on the index were residential electricity, with an increase of 3.29% and a contribution of 0.13 p.p., influenced by the change in the tariff flag. Next come ground coffee (2.86%), urban bus (1.39%), water and sewage fees (0.94%), meals (0.60%) and health insurance (0.57%), all of which with an impact of 0.02 p.p.
The biggest negative impacts came from food at home, mainly due to the prices of tomatoes (-7.24%), chicken eggs (-6.95%) and rice (-3.44%), all with 0.2 p.p. The drop in gasoline prices (-0.52%) was responsible for 0.3 p.p. of the IPCA-15.
IPCA-E, the cumulative IPCA-15 in the quarter, stood at 1.05%, close to the rate of 1.04% recorded in the same period last year. In the last 12 months, IPCA-15 had a cumulative increase of 5.27%, below the 5.40% observed in the immediately previous 12 months. In June 2024, the rate was 0.39%.
Seven of the nine groups recorded increases in June
In addition to Food and beverages (-0.02%), only Education had a negative rate, also -0.02%.
In Housing, the increase in residential electricity is related to the red tariff flag level 1, with an additional charge of R$4.46 for every 100 kWh consumed, which came into effect in June, and to the adjustments: 7.36% in Belo Horizonte (6.82%), starting on May 28; 3.33% in Recife (4.58%), starting on April 29; 2.07% in Salvador (2.30%), starting on April 22; and a 1.68% reduction in the tariff in Fortaleza (3.53%), starting on April 22.
Water and sewage rates, which rose by 0.94%, incorporated adjustments of 9.88% in Brasília (4.43%), in effect since June 1; 3.83% in Curitiba (3.70%), since May 17; 9.98% in Recife (3.33%), since April 26 and 6.58% in one of the concessionaires in Porto Alegre (1.95%), since May 4. Also relevant was piped gas (0.13%), with an average adjustment of 0.77% in Rio de Janeiro (0.39%), in effect since May 1.
The highlights in Wearing apparel (0.51%) were the increases in women's apparel (0.66%) and footwear and accessories (0.49%). The result of Health and personal care (0.29%) this month was influenced by health insurance (0.57%).
In Transportation (0.06%), after the drop recorded in May, it is possible to see the impact of free or reduced prices for the subway and/or urban buses, granted on Sundays and holidays, in Curitiba (5.08%), Brasília (21.54%) and Belém (11.52%). Taxis (0.21%) encompass the average 8.71% increase in fares in Belo Horizonte (2.08%), starting on June 7.
Fuel prices fell 0.69% in June (compared to the 0.11% increase in May), with drops in the prices of diesel (-1.74%), ethanol (-1.66%), gasoline (-0.52%) and vehicle gas (-0.33%).
Food at home fell by 0.24% in June, against increase of 0.30% in May, influenced by the declines in tomato (-7.24%), chicken eggs (-6.95%), rice (-3.44%) and fruits (-2.47%). On the other hand, onions (9.54%) and ground coffee (2.86%) stood out.
Food away from home (0.55%) decelerated from May (0.63%), due to the decline in snacks (from 0.84% in May to 0.32% in June). On the other hand, meals fell from 0.49% in May to 0.60% in June.
Recife records the biggest change, with 0.66%
The biggest change was recorded in Recife (0.66%), due to increases in residential electricity (4.58%) and gasoline (3.44%). The lowest result occurred in Porto Alegre (-0.10%), which saw a drop in the prices of tomato (-10.04%) and gasoline (-2.87%).
More about the survey
To calculate the IPCA-15, the methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage. In order to estimate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from May 16 to june 13, 2025 (reference) and compared with those in effect from April 15 to May 15, 2025 (base).
The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, besides Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. Please take a look at the complete results on Sidra.
