The 2.4% drop in the national industrial production from December 2021 to January 2022, in the seasonally adjusted series, was followed by ten of the 15 places surveyed by the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM Regional Edition). The state of Amazonas had the biggest drop, of 13.0%, in the month, but the biggest influence on the general result of the industry was the decrease of 10.7% in Minas Gerais. These are some regional results that the IBGE has published today (March 15).

“Amazonas eliminated almost all the expansion of December, of 14.3%, with the 13.0% decrease in January being the sharpest in the monthly comparison since April 2020, when the state had a 48.9% drop. The beverage sector, very strong in the local industry, exerted the main negative influence on the Amazon result”, emphasizes survey analyst Bernardo Almeida.

But, in the general index of the national industry, Amazonas was in fourth place in terms of influence.  The major impact came from Minas Gerais (-10.7%), which also recorded its sharpest fall since April 2020 (-15.3%), interrupting two months in a row of production growth, a period when it accumulated a gain of 7.5%.

“In this case, it was the mining and quarrying sector that drove the index down. Excessive rainfalls hampered the mining and quarrying operation, one of the major activities in the state of Minas and also one of the most important in Pará, causing a drop pf 9.8% and being the second major negative influence in the national index” explains Mr. Almeida.

Pará registered the second consecutive negative rate (-2.6% in December), accumulating losses of 12.1% in the period.  In addition to mining and quarrying, local food production has had a negative impact.

And the fall in food production also had an impact on Paraná (-5.1%), the third major influence on the national index, as well as the drop in motor vehicles.  After advancing 7.7% in December, the industry of Paraná had a decrease of 5.1%, which was the most intense since June 2021, when it retreated 6.1%.

But the industry of São Paulo, the fifth biggest influence on the national index, also had a decrease of 1.0%, under the impact of the fall in the production of motor vehicles, as well as machinery and equipment.

“The motor vehicle sector still suffers from reduced inputs, more expensive raw materials and decreasing demand, due to the fall in the purchasing power of the population.  However, it is also worth mentioning that January is a month in which, normally, the industries in the sector grant collective vacations to their employees, contributing to the month’s retreat”, Almeida highlights.

Pernambuco (-5.0%) and Ceará (-3.8%) also recorded sharper negative rates than the national average (-2.4%). And Goiás (-1.7%), Northeast Region (-1.6%) and Rio de Janeiro (-1.4%) completed the group of places with negative indexes in January.

At the other end, Mato Grosso (4.0%) and Espírito Santo (2.6%) showed the highest increases in January compared to December, with the former marking the fourth positive rate in a row and accumulating in this period an expansion of 37.6%; and the latter registering growth of 8.8% in two consecutive months of expansion in production.  Bahia (1.2%), Santa Catarina (0.9%) and Rio Grande do Sul (0.8%) had the other positive results of the month.

“Mato Grosso stands out with the advance in the food sector, having been the main positive influence on the national result.  The state had its fourth consecutive positive rate and accumulated an increase of 37.6% in the period”, points out Mr. Almeida.

Compared with January 2021, MT grew 43%

Over January 2021, the industry decreased 7.2% in January 2022, followed by 11 of the 15 places surveyed, having January 2022 (21 days) one more business day than the same month a year ago (20). Pará (-24.4%), Ceará (-24.3%), Pernambuco (-12.3%) and Northeast Region (-10.1%) had the sharpest declines.  Minas Gerais (-9.8%), Santa Catarina (-9.7%) and São Paulo (-8.7%) also registered negative rates above the national average (-7.2%).  And Rio Grande do Sul (-6.3%), Amazonas (-4.1%), Bahia (-3.9%) and Paraná (-3.7%) completed the set of negative indices in the comparison.

On the other hand, Mato Grosso, with an expansion of 43.0%, had the highest growth in January 2022, largely driven by the advance observed in the activities of food products and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (ethyl alcohol).  Espírito Santo (5.4%), Rio de Janeiro (2.8%) and Goiás (2.1%) showed the other positive results in the comparison with the same month of the previous year.

In the cumulative index in the last twelve months, the 3.1% increase in the total industry in January 2022 was followed by ten of the 15 surveyed locations, but nine of these locations showed less dynamism compared to December 2021 indices.  Ceará (from 3.7% to 0.5%), Pará (from -3.7% to -6.8%), Pernambuco (from -0.2% to -2.0%), Santa Catarina (from 10.2% to 8.5%), Minas Gerais (from 9.8% to 8.3%), Paraná (from 9.1% to 7.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (from 8.7% to 7.5%) and São Paulo (from 4.9% to 3.8%) showed the main declines between December 2021 and January 2022.  On the other hand, Mato Grosso (from -0.1% to 3.9%) had the biggest gain between the two periods.

More about the survey

The Regional PIM has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product from mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It presents, every month, indexes for 14 Federation Units, each one accounting for at least 1% of the national value of manufacturing, and also for the Northeast Region as a whole.  Amazonas, Pará, Ceará, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Northeast Region. Please, see the complete results on Sidra database.