Harvest estimate for 2022 drops, but keeps record level at 227,1 million tonnes
January 11, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: January 11, 2022 09h32 PM
National harvest is expected to reach one more record in 2022. After three years of record figures in a row, the latest estimae for the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), releases today (11) by the IBGE, shows that agricultural output was somewhat smaller in 2021, and closed the year at 253.2 million metric tons, 0.4% below the 2020 harvest. The study also shows that, for 2022, the estimate is of a new record, of 277.1 million tonnes, despite the slight decrease in relation to the previous estimate. /p>
“Opposite to the 2021 harvest, when there was delay in planting for the 2022 cropA, for this year, soybean has been planted in advance and in an accelerated way in most producing areas in the country, due to the high volume of rain throughout the month of October in the South, Southeast and Central West. That is expected to increase the planting window for 2nd crops and bring benefits for production,” says the manager of LSPA, Carlos Barradas.
He highlights, however, that there were climate-related impacts caused by instability in the states of the Northeast and Southeast, due to the intertropical Convergence Zone, and effects of the phenomenon “La Ninã” in southern states, now interfering with harvesting in the field.
““Rainfall above the average has been observed in Bahia e Ceará, whereas in the three states of the South and in Mato Grosso do Sul it is possible to observe a smaller volume of rain, with severe regionalized droughts, thus affecting summer crops. As a result, new information received in this third estimate indicate a drop of 0.3%, or 900 thousand tonnes against what had been estimated in the previous estimate for this year,” Mr. Barradas adds.
In spite of that, the output of 277.1 million metric tons in 2022 must be 9.4% above that of 2021, with 23.9 million metric tons more. The increase was mainly due to the bigger production of soybean (2.5%), corn (11.2% in the first crop and 29.4% in the second), upland cotton seed (4.6%), sorghum (11.4%) and beans (10.8% in the first crop and 4.6% in the second one).
The volume of output for soybeans hit a new record, being estimated at 138.3 million tonnes, and is expected to account for more than half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2022. The output estimate for corn is 108.9 million tonnes, with an expected record harvest, recovery of crops after a big decrease in production in 2021 due to delay in planting of 2nd crop and lack of rain in the main producing units.
The survey also estimates drops in the production of rice (-4.9%), beans - 3rd crop (-0.9%) and wheat (-7.4%).
“Despite the decrease, this production of rice must be enough to supply the Brazilian domestic market,” Mr. Barradas highlights.
Harvest in 2021 was smller than in 2020
On the other hand, the estimate for October for the 2021 harvest hit 251.2 million tonnes, 1.2% smaller (or less 3.0 million tonnes) than that of 2020 (254.1 million tonnes). Against the previous estimate, there was an increase of 420.6 thousand tonnes (0.2%). Rice, corn and soybean accounted for 92.6% of the output and 87.3% of the harvested area.
Mato Grosso leads the national production of grain with a share of 28.2%, followed by Rio Grande do Sul (14.9%), Paraná (13.1%), Goiás (10.0%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.5%) and Minas Gerais (6.0%), which, altogether accounted for 79.7% of the national forecast.
The output estimate recorded an annual positive change in three Major Regions: South (5.2%), Northeast (1.9%) and North (11.8%). Centro-Oeste (-4.3%) and Southeast (-4.6%) recorded decreases. The Central-West produced 116.5 million tonnes (46.1%), the South, 76.9 million tonnes (30.4%); the Southeast, 24.6 million tonnes (9.9%), the Northeast, 23.0 million tonnes (9.1%) and the North, 12.3 million tonnes (4.5%).
About the LSPA
Launched in November 1972 aiming at addressing the demand of users for monthly short-term statistical information, the LSPA provides estimates of planted area, harvested area, amount produced and average yield of products selected based on criteria of economic and social importance for Brazil. It does not only monitor each crop investigated in the calendar year of reference, from the intention to plant up to the end of the harvest, but also presents the forecast for the coming year, with surveys in the months of October, November and December. See available data at Sidra.