Lack of rain delays planting and reduces corn crop forecast in 2018
December 12, 2017 09h00 AM | Last Updated: December 12, 2017 10h18 AM
A reduction of 1.1 million metric tons in the amount expected for the second corn harvest was the main cause of the 700-thousand-metric-ton decrease in the second forecast for 2018 of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) of November, released today by IBGE.
With the decrease, the forecast for the 2018 harvest was 219.5 million metric tons, 9.2% less than the estimated figure for 2017. The drop is mainly due to the impact of the lack of rain in September and October, when soybeans are normally planted, usually before the second corn crop in the field.
"The decrease in the second crop of corn has to do with the fact that the soybean crop has not been harvested yet, because corn is only planted after soybean harvest. As soybean planting has delayed, corn will be delayed too. The window of planting will be better, possibly reaching a period of lack of rain, which might cause decrease in the production, "explains IBGE researcher Carlos Antônio Barradas.
The second corn crop of 2018, therefore, had its estimate reduced from 59 million to 57.9 million from October to November. There is a possibility, however, that this number be revised upwards in the next few months, as producers are taking advantage of better weather conditions to regain the work pace.
"The planting started late because there was no rain, so since the first preview this was well established. From then on, it has started to rain, but it a reflex of the bad weather remained, because some states have only updated their reports recently, and this influenced the survey," he adds.
Meanwhile, there was a small increase in the 2017 harvest preview, which rose 0.1% in relation to October's estimate and stood at 241.9 million metric tons – a volume which hit the record of the time series begun in 1975.
Text: Rodrigo Paradella
Infograph: J.C. Rodrigues
Image: Wikimedia Commons
