Five out of 15 places investigated by the Regional Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) dropped between March and April, when the national industrial output fell 0.5%. The biggest retreats were in Pará (-11.2%) and Bahia (-5.4%). On the other hand, the growth of 12.8% in Paraná and of 12.2% in Pernambuco stood out. The result was released today (14) by the IBGE.

"It is important to stress that the national behavior in April, of retreat, was concentrated in activities with higher weights, though other activities were spread on the positive side, leading to seven dropping activities and 18 growing ones. Likewise, we noticed only five places with a negative behavior in the regional survey this month," explains Bernardo Almeida, an analyst of the survey. The researcher stresses that the samples of each place, including the national survey, are independent. "The seasonal adjustment is applied to each individual time series, which cause them to lose the additivity factor, i.e., they lose the property in which their sum equals the entirety. Therefore, the sum of the regional figures is not the same as the national one, clarifies him.

The major influence and the biggest percentage drop were those of the industry in Pará, which recorded the most intense retreat since May 2022 (-18.1%), pressed by the result of the mining sector. "It is a place whose biggest industrial concentration is on the mining sector," highlights Almeida. The negative rate in April offset the growth of the industry in Pará in March (4.7%).

The drop in the industry of Bahia was the second one in influence and in percentage. The retreat comes after three months of positive rates, when it accumulated a growth of 4.0%. The behavior of the sectors of petroleum products and chemicals helps to explain the drop.

Goiás (-0.9%) was another drop more intense than the national average. Minas Gerais (-0.5%) and the Northeast Region (-0.1%) were the other places with negative rates in April 2024. 

On the rising side, Paraná (12.8%) grew once again, after accumulating a loss of 12.6% in the months of March and February. The southern state was the major positive influence and registered the highest percentage rise, due to the performance of the sector of petroleum products and food, as well as of vehicles. "This rise was the most intense since September 2020, when it grew 13.5% in the recovery of industry after the first months of the Covid-19 pandemic, with the relaxation of isolation and social distancing," reminds the researcher.

Pernambuco was another positive highlight. Having risen 12.2%, the northeastern state recorded the second highest percentage rise and the third biggest influence, offsetting the drop of 3.5% reported in March. "The result was influenced by the sectors of motor vehicles and petroleum products," highlights the analyst of the Regional PIM.

As the largest industrial park in Brazil, SãoPaulo was the second place in positive influence (1.9%). The industry in São Paulo grew once again after two months of negative figures, when it accumulated a change of -0.4%. The April´s rate was influenced by the performance of the sector of food, besides the industries of petroleum products and vehicles. With this result, São Paulo stayes 1.8% above the pre-pandemic level (February 2020).

The other positive figures were registered in Mato Grosso (4.4%), Amazonas (4.2%), Ceará (3.9%), Espírito Santo (2.7%), São Paulo (1.9%), Santa Catarina (0.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (0.2%) and Rio de Janeiro (0.1%).

Industry grows in 16 out of 18 places surveyed in relation to April 2023

Compared with April 2023, the national industry grew 8.4% in April 2024, with 16 out of 18 places surveyed with positive figures. Rio Grande do Norte (25.6%), Santa Catarina (16.0%), Pernambuco (13.2%) and Goiás (12.7%) recorded the biggest rises. Ceará (12.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (11.7%), Paraná (10.9%), São Paulo (10.8%) and Amazonas (10.0%) also reported two-digit positive rates, more intense than the national average. "In this comparison, a significant number of two-digit figures can be perceived. This is explained by the lower comparison basis in some places and, mainly, by the significant positive calendar effect, since April 2024 had 22 business days, more four days than the same month in the previous year, when they were 18," notes Almeida.

Espírito Santo (8.2%), Mato Grosso (8.1%), Maranhão (7.6%), Rio de Janeiro (4.4%), Minas Gerais (3.7%), Northeast Region (2.6%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (2.0%) rose as well. Pará registered the biggest drop in this index (-13.6%). Having fallen 3.5%, Bahia was the other drop.   

Cumulative index in the year grows in 17 out of 18 places

The April´s Regional PIM also showed the the result of the cumulative index in the year (January-April) in 2024, compared with the same period in 2023. In this index, the national industry grew 3.5%, with positive figures in 17 out of 18 places surveyed.

Rio Grande do Norte (24.4%) and Goiás (11.3%) recorded the steepest two-digit advances. Likewise, Ceará (7.6%), Mato Grosso (6.8%), Santa Catarina (6.5%), Espírito Santo (6.2%), Amazonas (5.7%), Rio de Janeiro (5.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (5.0%) and São Paulo (4.3%) reported more intense rises than the national average. Pernambuco (3.1%), Minas Gerais (2.6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (2.2%), Bahia (1.6%), Maranhão (1.4%), Paraná (0.7%) and the Northeast Region (0.6%) were the other places with positive rates in this index. Having dropped 1.7%, only Pará declined in this index.

More about the survey

The Regional PIM has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product from mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It brings monthly indexes for 17 Federation Units whose share are at least 0.5% of the total value added of the national industry and for the Northeast as a whole: Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Northeast Region.

The results of the survey can also be viewed on Sidra, the IBGE database. The next release of the Regional PIM, related to May 2024, will be on July 12.