Five of the 15 areas surveyed by the Regional Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) advanced from February to March, when the country's industrial production grew 0.9%. The biggest increases were recorded in Pará (3.8%), Mato Grosso (2.5%) and Santa Catarina (2.3%), while Amazonas (-13.9%) and Paraná (-13.0%) showed double-digit declines and the highest in that month. In the cumulative index over 2024, the 1.9% increase in the national industry was followed by positive results in 16 of the 18 areas surveyed. The data was released today (09) by the IBGE.

“We have seen that even with a somewhat expansionary monetary policy, with a cut in interest rates and the number of hiring increasing slightly, there is still a short-term scenario reflected in the production chain. Even though the interest rate has been cut, we still observe high levels, which relatively gives us a less expensive credit line, but still narrow one, due to interest rates at high levels, leading to some caution in industrial production”, explains survey analyst Bernardo Almeida.

The industry in Pará, with an increase of 3.8%, stood out among the five areas that showed growth from February to March, both with the highest positive rate in absolute terms and with the greatest positive influence on the results.

“The sector that most influenced this performance was the mining and quarrying sector, which has a lot of influence on the local industry. This outcome comes after two months of negative results, which, in turn, occurred after the end of 2023 with positive results, also indicating that, at times, production may slow down according to the production strategy within the sector itself”, explains Mr. Almeida.

Following this same logic, Mato Grosso (2.5%) and Santa Catarina (2.3%) recorded the other sharpest advances from February to March, with the first eliminating part of the 3.6% drop seen in the previous month and the second returning to growth after accumulating a loss of 3.6% in the first two months of the year.

On the other hand, Amazonas (-13.9%) showed one of the double-digit declines and the highest this month, interrupting three consecutive months of production growth.

“The main influences on this drop are from the computer equipment, electronic and optical products sector. It is a very active activity within the Amazon industry due to some industrial incentives in the sector. This drop comes after three months of positive results, when Amazonas achieved an cumulative gain of 35.9%, an increase also influenced by the same sector. Therefore, in the month of March, we observed another strategic movement to slow down production after three months of growth”, points out the analyst.

The other most intense decline, also a double-digit one, came from industry in Paraná, which fell 13.0%. “We have two sectors influencing this drop: petroleum derivatives and biofuels and chemical products. It is also important to highlight that the industry in Paraná presented this drop in March after two months of positive results, when it accumulated gains of 3.9%”, says Almeida.

Industry declines in 11 of the 18 places surveyed in relation to March 2023

The country's industrial production fell 2.8% compared to March last year, with negative results in 11 of the 18 locations analyzed by Regional PIM. Paraná (-12.6%) and Amazonas (-10.9%) recorded double-digit declines, the sharpest ones this month.

In Paraná, the drop was mainly influenced by the negative behavior observed in the coke, petroleum products and biofuels (diesel fuel, aviation kerosene and motor gasoline) sectors, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (cars, auto parts, tractor-trucks for trailers and semi-trailers and trucks), food products (frozen meat and poultry offal, sweets and chocolate bars, frozen, fresh or chilled pork meat, sausage or salami products and other poultry meat and feed preparations), machinery and equipment (harvesters, agricultural tractors, drilling and surveying machines – used in petroleum prospecting, loaders and conveyors and machinery or equpment for agriculture, forestry and livestock) and chemical products (mineral or chemical fertilizers of NPK formulas, fungicides for use in agriculture, urea and deodorants).

In the case of Amazonas, the explanation for the negative result lies in the behavior of the sectors of computer equipment, electronic and optical products (memory units, cell phones and televisions), beverages (syrup preparations for the production of drinks for industrial purposes) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (motor gasoline and aviation kerosene).

Pernambuco (-6.3%), Northeast Region (-5.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-4.3%), Minas Gerais (-3.6%) and Bahia (-3.4%) also fell more than the national average (-2.8%), while Santa Catarina (-2.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (-2.1%), Maranhão (-1.8%) and São Paulo ( -1.6%) completed the set of places with negative results.

On the other hand, Rio Grande do Norte (16.3%) recorded the highest expansion this month, driven, to a large extent, by coke activities, petroleum products and biofuels (diesel fuel and motor gasoline). Goiás (7.0%), Espírito Santo (4.0%), Rio de Janeiro (3.1%), Mato Grosso (2.1%), Pará (2.0%) and Ceará (0.5% ) showed the remaining positive results for the monthly index in March 2024.

The IBGE researcher also highlights the difference in calendar between the months compared in the index. “The month of March 2024 came with a very significant calendar effect, with three working days less than in 2023. The -2.8% result in the national index in this type of comparison was very much due to this, which also was observed in the regional results”, highlights the analyst.

Cumulative index in the year presents positive rates in 16 of the 18 areas surveyed

The cumulative result for 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, showed an expansion of 1.9% in the industrial sector, with positive rates in 16 of the 18 locations surveyed. Rio Grande do Norte (24.1%) and Goiás (10.9%) recorded double-digit advances and the sharpest ones in the cumulaive index for the first three months of the year.

“Contextualizing, 16 of the 18 areas showed positive results after all locations having showed positive rates in this type of comparison last month. The result of the industry in Rio Grande do Norte was the highest in absolute terms and the sixth in terms of influence. The petroleum derivatives sector was the one that most influenced these results, mainly the increase in the production of diesel fuel and motor gasoline. It is worth noting that the industry in Rio Grande do Norte is very concentrated in the petroleum derivatives sector, which helps us explain the importance of this activity for the local industry”, analyzes Mr. Almeida.

Mato Grosso (6.2%), Ceará (6.0%), Rio de Janeiro (5.9%), Espírito Santo (5.5%), Amazonas (4.4%), Santa Catarina (3.5%), Bahia (3.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (3.0%) , Pará (2.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (2.3%), Minas Gerais (2.2%) and São Paulo (2.1%) also recorded more intense positive rates than the national average (1 .9%), while Maranhão (0.5%) and the Northeast Region (0.4%) completed the group of places with growth in production in the cumulative index in the year.

On the other hand, Paraná (-1.9%) showed the sharpest decline in the cumulative index for the period of January-March 2024, mainly driven by the activities of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (cars and auto parts), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (diesel fuel and aviation kerosene) and machinery and equipment (drilling and surveying machines - used in petroleum prospecting, harvesters, agricultural tractors, loaders and conveyors and machinery or equipment for agriculture, forestry and livestock). Pernambuco, with a negative change of 0.1%, marked the other negative rate in the index.

Eleven of the 18 areas surveyed showed positive rates in the last 12 months

The cumulative index in the last twelve months, having increased by 0.7% in March 2024, continued to show growth, but reduced intensity compared to the February result (1.0%). Eleven of the 18 places surveyed recorded positive rates in March 2024, but eleven showed less dynamism compared to February's rates. Amazonas (from 2.9% to -0.2%), Paraná (from 3.1% to 2.1%), Minas Gerais (from 3.1% to 2.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (from -0.1% to -0.9%) and Maranhão (from -4.1% to -4.8%) recorded the main losses between February and March 2024, while Rio Grande do Norte (from 19.3% to 20.6%) and Goiás (from 7.6% to 8.5%) showed the main gains between the two periods.

More about the survey

PIM Regional has been producing, since the 1970s, short-term indicators relating to the behavior of the real product of mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It brings, every month, indices for 17 Federation Units whose participation is at least 0.5% in the total value of the national industrial transformation and for the Northeast as a whole: Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Northeast Region.

The survey results can also be consulted in Sidra, the IBGE database. The next release of the Regional PIM, for April 2024, will be on June 14th.