The industrial output grew 2.9% between November and December. In the previous month, the industry had registered a null change (0.0%), which interrupted five consecutive months of drops. As a result, the sector stands 0.9% below the level of February 2020, in the pre-pandemic scenario, and 17.7% below the record level, registered in May 2011. It recorded a cumulative gain of 3.9% in the year. These are the results of the Monthly Industrial Survey - PIM, released today (2) by the IBGE.

André Macedo, manager of the survey, highlights that the result of the year reflects the loss of pace of the industry along 2021. “This is the first positive figure after two years. In 2019, the cumulative index in the year had been -1.1% and, in 2020, -4.5%. In 2021, it decreased along the year, since it registered a cumulative gain of 13.0% in the first semester and, later, the industrial sector reduced the pace. The positive figures in the first months of the year were related to a very depreciated basis of comparison, since very intense losses were recorded in the industry in 2020,” explains him.

On the other hand, the second semester of the year, whose cumulative result was -3.4%, had a higher basis of comparison. “Moreover, the pandemic still reflects on the production process, with more expensive production costs and lack of raw material. On the side of the domestic demand, inflation at higher levels and a labor market still characterized by precarious work conditions and paying lower salaries, though showing a certain degree of recovery,” says the researcher.

In the cumulative index in the year, the industry reported positive figures in three out of four major economic categories and in 18 out of 26 activities investigated by the survey, highlighted by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (20.3%), machinery and equipment (24.1%) and basic metals (15.4%).

“It is a year in which the industry grows over a period of many losses. This is also a characteristic of the activity of motor vehicles, which, in 2020, recorded a cumulative rate in the year of -27.9%. It follows the behavior of the overall industry: it grows and stands on the positive side, though it had not reversed the losses in the previous year. In terms of products, the highlight is the advance in the production of trucks,” states Macedo.

According to the manager of the survey, that sector is an example of disarticulation of the production chains during the Covid-19 pandemic. “In addition to the increasing costs of production, industrial plants lost supplies, characterized by the lack of inputs and parts for the production of the final good. The manufacture of cars was marked by the shutdown of industrial plants along 2021,” completes him.

Compared with November, the expansion of 2.9% of the overall industry caused most activities investigated by the survey to grow. The greatest influence came from motor vehicles, trailers and bodies, a segment that rose 12.2% in December. This is the fourth consecutive month of growth of that sector, a period in which it accumulated a gain of 17.4%.

Food products also strongly influenced on the result of the industry. Even rising 2.9% in December, that sector grew less than that registered in the previous month (7.1%). “This is the second month of growth of that activity and this gain is mainly due to the production of sugar and the resumption of exports of beef to China,” explains him. In spite of the positive figure, that sector is still 4.1% below the pre-pandemic level.

Other positive results came from computer, electronic and optical products (12.0%), basic metals (3.8%), mining and quarrying industries (1.6%), non-metallic mineral products (2.0%),  machinery and equipment (1.3%), pulp, paper and paper products (1.7%) and leather, traveling goods and footwear (4.5%). Five activities dropped, highlighted by pharm-chemicals and pharmaceuticals (-6.9%), which offset the gain of 1.8% in November.

Industry declines 5.0% over December 2020

Compared with December a year ago, the industrial output fell 5.0%. The negative results hit three out of four major economic categories and 20 out of 26 segments surveyed. The major negative influences among the activities came from basic metals (-13.9%), rubber products and plastic material (-19.9%) and fabricated metal products (-19.1%).

Among the six activities that rose, coke, petroleum products and biofuels (3.4%) stood out. Other segments with positive figures were mining and quarrying industries (2.0%), food products (1.8%) and pulp, paper and paper products (6.1%).

Among the major economic categories, the segment of durable consumer goods
(-16.8%) registered the sharpest drop. The sectors of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-7.4%) and of intermediate goods (-3.9%) also retreated. The only positive rate among the major economic categories was that of capital goods (5.8%).

More on the survey

PIM Brazil has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product of the mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. From May 2014, the release of a new series of monthly industrial production indices began, after a reformulation to: update the sample of activities, products and respondents; prepare a new weighting structure for the indices based on the most recent industrial statistics, in order to harmonize with the needs of the implementation the National Accounts Series - reference 2010;  and to adopt the new classification of activities and products used by other industry surveys from 2007 onwards, namely: the National Classification of Economic Activities - CNAE 2.0 and the List of Industrial Products - PRODLIST-Industry.

The survey results can also be consulted in the Sidra  database.