The mining and quarrying industry exerted impact on the two largest expansions among the areas surveyed - Photo: Ricardo Teles/Portal Brasil.gov.br

Six of the 15 places surveyed by the Regional Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM) fell from December to January, when the country's industrial production shrank 1.6%. The biggest drops were recorded in Espírito Santo (-6.3%) and Pará (-4.9%), while the main negative influence on the national result came from Rio Grande do Sul (-3.8%). In the cumulative index in 12 months, the industry changed 0.4%, with positive rates in ten places. Data were released today (13) by the IBGE.

“The 1.6% drop in the national industry was recorded after five months without negative results, with a cumulative gain of 2.9%, and represents a strategy by the industry itself to equalize supply and demand behavior. It is a natural movement in relation to previous months, which is also observed regionally”, explains survey analyst Bernardo Almeida.

An example is what happened in the Espírito Santo industry, which in addition to having the highest retraction among the locations surveyed, exerted the second greatest negative influence on the results of Brazilian industry. “Mining and quarrying activities exerted the highest impact on this behavior within this industry. This sector was one of those responsible for the pace gain at the end of the second half of 2023 and, from December to January, there was this downward movement that we can observe in the national and state results”, says the analyst.

The mining and quarrying sector also influenced the negative result of Pará's industry (-4.9%). “This same movement in the sector was observed in Pará, where the industry is more concentrated in this activity”, he states. The state's industrial production had grown in November (1.8%) and December (2.7%), with a cumulative gain of 4.5% in this period.

In Rio Grande do Sul, the 3.8% drop came after an increase of 1.6% in the previous month. “The January rate is the most intense since September 2023, when it reached -5.5%. This result was impacted by the activities of petroleum derivatives and tobacco products, which are very active within the industry in Rio Grande do Sul,” says the researcher. The other states with negative rates were Goiás (-3.3%), Santa Catarina (-3.1%) and Ceará (-0.2%).
 
Among the nine places that increased production, the highlight was Amazonas (16.7%), which had the greatest expansion and had the greatest positive impact on the national industry. “The biggest influence on this result came from the computer equipment, electronic and optical products. Between September and November, the severe drought in the state affected the logistics of the local industry, both in terms of production flow and the supply of inputs. This generated additional costs, which resulted in a reduction in the production rate. From December onwards, there was an improvement in the scenario”, explains the researcher. In two months, the Amazon industry cumulative an increase of 30.3%.

The second biggest positive influence came from São Paulo (0.8%), which accounts for around 33% of the country's industry. “The sectors that most influenced this increase were chemical products and other transportation equipment. With this result, we observe that the industry of São Paulo is 0.4% above its pre-pandemic level”, highlights the analyst. The state's industry also operates 22.1% below the highest level recorded in March 2011.

In December, the state's industrial sector had declined 1.6%. “Before that, the industry of São Paulo had two consecutive months of growth. Based on these results, it is possible to observe an improvement in the pace of local production”, he points out.

In Paraná (1.9%), the third biggest influence on the national result, the biggest contributions came from the sectors of electrical machinery, apparatus and materials and machinery and equipment. The other positive results came from the following locations: Mato Grosso (4.4%), Northeast Region (3.2%), Bahia (2.1%), Minas Gerais (1.0%), Rio de Janeiro (0. 8%) and Pernambuco (0.5%).

Industry grows in 16 of the 18 locations surveyed in relation to January 2023

The country's industrial production grew 3.6% compared to January last year, with growth in 16 of the 18 locations analyzed by PIM Regional. Rio Grande do Norte (30.6%), Amazonas (11.7%) and Goiás (10.2%) recorded the biggest changes. “In this indicator, we observed a spread of positive results across locations, largely explained by the low comparison base. In January 2023, 11 locations showed negative results”, points out Mr. Almeida.

The researcher highlights other factors that impacted the result, including expansionary monetary policy. “In this scenario, there was reduction in interest rates, increasing lines of credit and, consequently, disposable income and family consumption, in addition to an improvement in the job market, with a drop in the unemployment rate and a greater number of hirings. From the supply perspective, the expansion of credit allowed more optimistic decision-making by producers, resulting in an increased pace of production”, he details.

Still in relation to the same period last year, the biggest positive influence on the national index came from São Paulo (4.6%). “In this industry, the biggest influences were the activities of petroleum derivatives, with the increase in the production of diesel fuel, fuel oils, aviation kerosene, naphtha and motor gasoline. In the second place were the chemical products sector. Of the 18 activities surveyed in the São Paulo industry, 12 grew in this indicator”, highlights the analyst.

The other places that grew in this comparison were Mato Grosso (9.5%), Bahia (8.0%), Rio de Janeiro (7.1%), Santa Catarina (6.3%), Minas Gerais (5.5%), Pará (5.1 %), Paraná (3.9%), Ceará (3.6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (3.0%), Espírito Santo (2.4%), Northeast Region (1.3%) and Pernambuco ( 1.0%). Maranhão (-6.6%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-4.5%) fell.

More about the survey

PIM Regional has been producing, since the 1970s, short-term indicators relating to the behavior of the real product of mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It brings, monthly, indices for 17 Federation Units, whose participation is at least 0.5% in the total value of national industrial transformation and for the Northeast as a whole: Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte , Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Northeast Region.

The survey results can also be consulted in Sidra, the IBGE database. The next release of the Regional PIM, for February 2024, will be on April 9th.