IPCA
Inflation stands at -0.08% and decreases for the first time in the year
July 11, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: July 12, 2023 08h48 PM
Inflation dropped by 0.08% in June, and stood 0.31 percentage points (p.p.) below the rate of May (0.23%). That is the lowest change for June since 2017, when the index was 00.23%. In the year, the cumulative IPCA reached 2.87% and, in 12 months, 3.16%, below the 3.94% registered in the previous 12 months. The monthly change in June 2022 was 0.67%.
Food and beverages (-0.66%) and Transportation (-0.41%) were the groups accounting for the main contributions to the result of June, and impacts of -0.14 p.p. and -0.08 p.pon the general index, respectively. Decreases were also registered by Household articles (-0.42%) and Communication (-0.14%). The biggest impact (0.10 p.p.) and the main change (0.69%) came from Housing. The other groups stood between the rate of 0.06% in Education and 0.36% in Personal expenses.
“Food and beverages and Transportation account for the main contributions in the basket of consumption. Together, they represent about 42% of the IPCA. Also, the decrease in prices of these two groups was the main factor accounting for deflation in June,” says André Almeida, analyst of the survey.
The group Food and beverages was mainly affected by the fall of prices of food at home (-1.07%). The drops in soybean oil (-8.96%), fruits (-3.38%), long-life milk (-2.68%) and meats (-2.10%) stand out. Food away from home (0.46%) decelerated from the previous month (0.58%), as a result of lower increases in snacks (0.68%) and meals (0.35%).
“In the last few months, grain prices, such as soybean, have dropped. That had a direct effect on the price of soybean oil and an indirect effect on the prices of beef and milk, for example. These commodities are inputs for animal feed, a a lower price helped reduce production prices. In the case of milk, there is also a bigger supply by the market,” Mr. Almeida explains.
As for Transportation (-0.41% and -0.08 p.p.), the result was influenced by the the fall of prices of new cars (-2.76%) and used cars (-0.93%). In addition, the result of fuels (-1.85%) stood out, due to the drops in diesel (-6.68%), ethanol (-5.11%), vehicular gas (-2.77%) and gasoline (-1.14%). As for increases, airfares rose 10.96%, after a decrease of 17.73% in May.
“All the fuels surveyed dropped. In addition to that, gasoline is the subitem qith the highest individual weight on the IPCA, 4.84%. The decrease in gasoline, this month, accounted for -0.06%,” the analyst says.
He also explains that the fall of car prices: “The subitem new car represented the main individual impact in the month, -0.09 p.p. This drop is related to the discount program for the purchase of bew cars, launched on June 6 by the federal government. That can also be related to the fall of prices of used cars.”
As for the rise of Housing (0.69%), the biggest contribution (0.06 p.p.) came from electricity (1.43%), followed by water and sewage fees (1.69%). In both cases, price rises were observed in some areas of coverage of this survey. On the other hand, drops were observed in piped gas (-0.04%), due to the reduction of taxes, and also of gas cylinders (-3.82%).
The result of the group Health and personal care (0.11%) reflected the increase in the prices of health insurance plan (0.38%), as a result of the adjustment of 9.63% authorized by the National Regulatory Agency for Private Health Insurance and Plans (ANS).
As for regional indexes, only five areas recorded increases in June. The biggest change was that observed in Below Horizonte (0.31%), due to residential electricity (13.66%). The lowest change was recorded in Goiânia (-0.97%), influenced by drops of 5.40% in gasoline and of 4.83% in residential electricity.
INPC decreases by 0.10% in June
The National Consumer Price Index (INPC), released today as well, dropped by 0.10% in June. In May, the index recorded an increase of 0.36%. In the year, the INPC had a cumulative increase of 2.69% and, in the last 12 months, of 3.00%, below the rate of 3.74% observed in the 12 previous months. In June 2022, the rate had been 0.62%.
Food products decreased by 0,66% in June and on-food products rose 0.08%, having decelerated from May (0.43%). Twelve metropolitan areas recorded decreases in June, with the lowest result coming from Goiânia (-0.86%), and the highest, from Recife (0.38%).
More about the surveys
The IPCA encompasses households with earnings between 1 and 40 minimum wages, whereas the INPC, households with earnings between 1 and 5 minimum wages, living in the Metropolitan Areas of Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Vitória, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, as well as in the Federal District and in the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís and Aracaju. Please access the data at Sidra. The next result of the IPCA, related to June, will be released on July 11.
