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With fuel prices falling, preview of September inflation stays at -0.37%

Section: Economic Statistics | Caio Belandi

September 27, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 28, 2022 07h50 PM

September inflation preview shows fuels down by almost 10% - Photo: Helena Pontes/IBGE News Agency

The September inflation preview was -0.37%, registering the second consecutive drop after -0.73% in August. The price of fuel had the greatest influence, with emphasis on the decline in gasoline, in particular. The IPCA-E, which is the IPCA-15 accumulated quarterly, was -0.97%. In the year, the IPCA-15 is up 4.63% while in the last 12 months, the rate slowed to 7.96%, below the 9.60% recorded in the 12 immediately previous months. In September 2021, the index was 1.14%.

Despite deflation, only three groups of products and services of the nine surveyed dropped in September, according to the Extended Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) released today (Sept 27) by the IBGE. Influenced by the item “fuels”, the Transportation group recorded a decrease of 2.35% in prices and made the largest contribution in percentage points (-0.49 pp) to the index.

The subitems ethanol (-10.10%), gasoline (-9.78%), diesel fuel (-5.40%) and vehicular gas (-0.30%) had their prices decreased in the period, with gasoline contributing with the most intense negative impact (-0.52 pp) among the 367 subitems surveyed in the September IPCA-15. This result is due to the reduction in the price of fuels sold to distributors on August 16 (R$ 0.18 per liter) and on September 2 (R$ 0.25/l). Also in Transportation, there was a drop in urban buses (-0.08%), thanks to the reduction in ticket prices on Sundays in Salvador (-0.82%), effective on September 11th.

On the other hand, in the group there was increase in airfare prices (8.20%), which rose again after the fall of 12.22% in August, in voluntary excess (1.74%), vehicle registration and licenses (1.71%) and car repair (0.62%).

In addition, Communication (-2.74%) and Food and Beverages (-0.47%) also recorded a drop in prices, with impacts of -0.14 pp and -0.10 pp, respectively. The former, as the biggest negative change in absolute terms (-2.74%), was influenced by the reduction in the prices of landline telephony (-6.58%) and mobile telephony (-1.36%), and by decrease in Internet access combos (-10.57%) and in telephony, Internet and pay-TV combos (-2.72%). There was also deflation in telephone devices (-0.99%). It is worth mentioning that Complementary Law 194/22, enacted at the end of June, set a limit for the maximum ICMS rate on fuel, electricity and communications.

The group of Food and Beverages (-0.47%) had the index moved down by food at home (-0.86%). Among the subitems, the highlights were the declines in soybean oil (-6.50%), tomatoes (-8.04%) and mostly long-life milk (-12.01%). Despite this fall in September, the price of milk accumulates a high of 58.19% in the year in the IPCA-15. On the other hand, the subitems that rose in the group were onions (11.39%), chicken pieces (1.64%) and fruit (1.33%).

Food away from home, on the other hand, decelerated from 0.80% in August to 0.59% in September. The item snack (0.94%) remains on the rise, with a change close to the previous month (0.97%), while the meals slowed down: from 0.72% to 0.36%.

The other six groups showed a rise in the IPCA-15 of September. Wearing Apparel (1.66%) stands out, with an increase in the prices of women's apparel (1.83%), men's apparel (1.78%) and childrenswear (1.52%), which rose again more intensely. In addition, footwear and accessories (1.58%) also increased by more than 1%, while jewelry and costume jewelry (0.98%) grew after falling 0.36% in August.

The group of Health and personal care (0.94%) was influenced by the items of personal hygiene (1.28%), health plans (1.13%) and pharmaceutical products (0.81%).

Coming from a drop of 0.37% in August, the Housing group (0.47%) saw prices increase mostly due to bottled gas (0.81%) and residential rent (0.72%), in addition to electricity (0.41%), considering that, in Belém (10.52%), the tariff per kWh increased by 14.74% on August 7th. The subitem piped gas (0.30%) also grew, due to increases in two areas: in Rio de Janeiro (0.13%), with a rise of 0.20% since August 1st; and in Curitiba (1.95%), where a 2.26% increase in residential rates was applied on August 9th.

In the analysis by area, nine of the 11 areas presented deflation in September. The biggest drop occurred in Recife (-0.93%), influenced by the decrease in gasoline prices (-13.85%). The biggest increase was in Belém (0.50%), driven by the rise in residential electricity (10.52%). Curitiba registered 0.03% in the IPCA-15 of September.

More about the survey

The IPCA-15 differs from the IPCA, the country's official inflation, only in the collection period and geographic scope. To calculate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from August 13 to September 14, 2022 (reference) and compared with those in force from July 14 to August 12, 2022 (base).

The IPCA-15 refers to households with incomes from 1 to 40 minimum wages, whatever the source, in the Metropolitan Areas of Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, in addition to the Federal District and the municipality of Goiânia. See the full results on Sidra.

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