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Inflation preview was 1.20% in October, highest index for the month since 1995

Section: Economic Statistics | Carmen Nery

October 26, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 27, 2021 12h39 PM

Airfare was one of the greatest contributions to the monthly indicator with a high of 34.35% - Photo: Licia Rubinstein/IBGE News Agency

The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), which previews the official inflation, was 1.20% in October, 0.06 percentage points (pp) above the rate of September (1.14%). This is the biggest change for the month of October since 1995 (1.34%), and the biggest monthly change since February 2016 (1.42%).

In the year, the IPCA-15 accumulates an increase of 8.30% and, in 12 months, of 10.34%, above the 10.05% registered in the previous 12 months. In October 2020, the rate was 0.94%. The data were released today (October 26) by the IBGE.

With the greatest individual impact (0.19 pp) in October, electricity (3.91%) was the highlight in the Housing group (1.87%). The increase is largely due to the Water Scarcity tariff flag, in effect throughout the index's reference period, with an increase of R$ 14.20 in the electricity bill for every 100 kWh consumed, the highest among all flags. During the IPCA-15 base period, both the Water Scarcity flag in the first half of September and the red flag - 2nd level in the second half of August were in effect. Another important contribution within the group came from bottled gas (3.80%), whose prices rose for the 17th consecutive month and accumulated, in 2021, an increase of 31.65%.

In the transportation group, the highlight was airfares, which increased by 34.35%, recording an impact of 0.16 pp. There was an increase in the price of tickets in all regions, with the lowest in Goiânia (11.56% ) and the largest in Recife (47.52%). Fuels continue to rise (2.03%) and continue to put pressure on prices. Gasoline, the component with the greatest weight in the IPCA-15, rose 1.85% and accumulates 40.44% in the last 12 months. The other fuels also showed increases: ethanol (3.20%), diesel fuel (2.89%) and vehicle gas (0.36%).

In terms of analyzed groups, the greatest change was in the groups of transportation (2.06%), which, besides the highs in airfare and fuels, recorded positive change in new cars (1.64%), used cars (1.56%) and n=motorcycles (1.27%). IN the case of used cars, it tis the 13th consecutive high, accumulating a change of 13,21% in the last 12 months.

Other sub-items, as tires (1.71%) and lubricants (1.36%), recorded highs of 31,03% and 19.19%, respectively, in the cumulative index over 12 months. Intercity bus, in turn , changed 0.16%, due to the increases ranging between 11% and 13% in the prices of tickets in Fortaleza (8.25%) in effect since September 3.

The group food and beverages (1.38%) was influenced mainly by food at home, which went from 1.51% in September to 1.54% in October. The prices of fruit grew 6.41% and contributes with 0.06 pp of impact. There were highs also in the prices of tomatoes (23.15%), potatoes (8.57%), of chicken pieces (5.11%), of ground coffee (4.34%), of whole chicken (4.20%) and of cheese (3.94%).

There were decreases in the prices of onions (-2.72%) and, for the ninths month in a row, of rice (-1.06%). Meat (-0.31%), after 16 months in a row of highs, had decrease.

Food away from home accelerated from September (0.69%) to October (0.97%), mainly because of snacks (1.71%), whose prices had decreased in the previous month (-0.46%). The increase in meals (0.52%), in turn, was lower than that of September (1.31%)

All the surveyed areas presented increase in October. The lowest result occurred in Belém (0.51%), due to price drops in acai berry (-4.74%), of meat (-0.98%) and of items of personal hygiene (-0.64%) The biggest change was seen in Curitiba (1.58%), with highs in electricity (4.15%) and gasoline (3.47%).

More about the IPCA-15

The National System of Consumer Price Indexes – SNIPC continuously and systematically produces consumer price indexes. Having been released on the Internet since May 2000, the IPCA-15 differs from the IPCA only in the period of price collection, which is usually from day 16 of the previous month until day 15 of the reference month, as well as in the geographic coverage.

Today, the target population of the IPCA-15 encompasses households with earnings between 1 and 40 minimum wages, whatever the source, living in 11 urban areas of the regions included in the SNIPC, which are: metropolitan areas of Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, as well as the Federal District and the municipality of Goiânia.

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