Inflation preview stands at 1.14% in September, the highest figure for the month since 1994

Section: Economic Statistics | Irene Gomes

September 24, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 24, 2021 07h09 PM

#PraCegoVer Mangueira de combustível abastecendo um carro prata
Gasoline increases 2.85% and, together with electricity, exerts the greatest individual impact on the high of IPCA-15 - Photo: Helena Pontes/IBGE News Agency

Driven by the increase in the transportation group, the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) was 1.14% in September, the highest result for the month since the beginning of the Real Plan, in 1994, when it stood at 1.63%. In addition, this month's result is the highest in the time series since February 2016 (1.42%). In the year, the indicator accumulates an increase of 7.02%, and in the last 12 months it has already surpassed two digits (10.05%), as shown by the data released today (September 24) by the IBGE.

Gasoline and electricity were the items that, individually, had the greatest impact on the index, both with 0.17 percentage points (pp). By groups, the main influences came from transportation, with a rise of 2.22% and an impact of 0.46 percentage points; food and beverages (1.27% and 0.27 pp); and housing (1.55% and 0.25 pp).

In transportation, the rise in fuels (3.00%) was above the one registered in the previous month (2.02%). Gasoline rose 2.85% and accumulated 39.05% in the last 12 months. The other fuels also showed increases: ethanol (4.55%), vehicle gas (2.04%) and diesel fuel (1.63%). In the group, the highlight is the rise in the prices of airfares, which rose 28.76% in September, exerting the third biggest impact (0.11 pp) on the month's IPCA-15.

In food and beverages, food at home accelerated from 1.29% in August to 1.51% in September. Meat prices rose 1.10% and contributed with 0.03 pp of impact. The prices of  potatoes (10.41%), ground coffee (7.80%), chicken pieces (4.70%), fruit (2.81%) and long-life milk (2.01%) also rose. On the other hand, there was a drop for the eighth consecutive month in rice prices (-1.03%) and for the sixth consecutive month in onion prices (-7.51%).

The housing group was once again pulled by the rise in electricity (3.61%), although it slowed down compared to August (5.0%). Last month, the red flag level 2 was in effect, with an increase of R$ 9,492 for every 100 kWh consumed. As of September 1st, the Water Shortage tariff flag entered into effect, adding R$ 14.20 for the same 100 kWh.

In relation to regional indexes, all surveyed areas increased in September. The lowest result was in Fortaleza (0.68%), influenced by the fall in the prices of tomatoes (-14.35%), meat (-0.94%) and pharmaceutical products (-0.91%). The biggest change was registered in Curitiba (1.58%), where the rises in gasoline (5.90%) and electricity (4.92%) were significant.

More about the survey

The National System of Consumer Price Indexes – SNIPC continuously and systematically produces consumer price indexes. Released on the Internet since May 2000, the IPCA-15 differs from the IPCA only in the period of price collection, which is usually from day 16 of the previous month until day 15 of the reference month, as well as in the geographic coverage.

Today, the target population of the IPCA-15 encompasses households with earnings between 1 and 40 minimum wages, whatever the source, living in 11 urban areas of the regions included in the SNIPC, which are: metropolitan areas of Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, as well as the Federal District and the municipality of Goiânia. Please take a look at the complete results at Sidra.