The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) was 1.14% in September, 0.25 percentage points (pp) above the rate of August (0.89%). This was the highest IPCA-15 since February 2016 (1.42%) and the highest for a month of September since 1994. The IPCA-E, which constitutes the cumulative IPCA-15 in the quarter, was at 2.77%, while in the same period of 2020, the change had been 0.98%. In the year, the IPCA-15 accumulates an increase of 7.02% and, in 12 months, of 10.05%, above the 9.30% registered in the previous 12 months. In September 2020, the rate was 0.45%.

The biggest impact (0.46 pp) and the biggest change (2.22%) came from the Transportation group.The second largest contribution came from Food and beverages (1.27% and 0.27 pp), which rose more than in the previous month (1.02%).Then came Housing (1.55%), whose result decelerated in relation to the IPCA-15 of August (1.97%) and contributed with 0.25 pp to the index for the month. The other groups ranged between the -0.01% for Education and 1.23% for Household articles.

The result of the Transportation group (2.22%) was influenced by the rise in fuels (3.00%), above the one registered in the previous month (2.02%). Gasoline rose 2.85% and accumulated 39.05% in the last 12 months. This sub-item had the greatest individual impact of the month in the IPCA-15, the same as that of electricity: 0.17 percentage points. Other fuels also showed increases: ethanol (4.55%), vehicle gas (2.04%) and diesel fuel (1.63%).

Self-owned vehicles, which had risen 1.06% in August, registered an increase of 1.19% in September. New cars (1.70%), used cars (1.34%) and motorcycles (1.04%) remained high and contributed together with 0.08 pp in the IPCA-15 in September. Furthermore, some products and services related to these sub-items had similar behavior, which were the cases of voluntary excess (3.08%), lubricating oil (2.37%), tires (1.88%) and car repair (0.81%).

Also in Transportation, airfare prices rose 28.76% in September, after the 10.90% drop observed in August. In the intercity bus (0.40%), the positive change is mainly due to increases in Salvador (3.23%), where there was a 10.67% adjustment in departure rates on July 28, and Fortaleza (2.15 %), where ticket prices increased between 11.00% and 13.00% as of September 3rd. Other highlights were vehicle rental (4.63%) and transportation application services (4.00%), which had already increased in the previous month (9.53% and 9.12%, respectively).

The result of the Food and beverages group (1.27%) was mainly influenced by food at home, which increased from 1.29% in August to 1.51% in September. Meat prices rose 1.10% and contributed with 0.03 pp of impact. In addition, there were also increases in the prices of potatoes (10.41%), ground coffee (7.80%), chicken pieces (4.70%), fruit (2.81%) and long life milk (2.01%). On the other hand, there was a drop for the eighth consecutive month in rice prices (-1.03%) and for the sixth consecutive month in onion prices (-7.51%).

Food away from home also accelerated from August (0.35%) to September (0.69%). However, there were distinct movements in the two main components of this subgroup: while meals rose 1.31%, compared to the 0.10% increase in the previous month, snacks recorded a decrease of 0.46%, after a rise of 0 .75% in August.

In the Housing group (1.55%), the largest contribution (0.17 pp) came once again from electricity (3.61%), although the change was lower than in August (5.0%). Last month, the red flag level 2 was in effect, with an increase of R$ 9,492 for every 100 kWh consumed. As of September 1st, the Water Shortage tariff flag entered into effect, adding R$ 14.20 for the same 100 kWh. In addition, there was an 8.92% readjustment in the tariffs in Belém (10.24%), effective since August 7th.

Also in Housing, the reduction in the water and sewage fee (-0.08%) stood out, as a result of the change in the tariff collection methodology in Belo Horizonte (-9.47%), as of August 1st. On the other hand, there were adjustments of 11.93% in Recife (10.07%), as of August 19, and 9.07% in one of the concessionaires in Porto Alegre (4.44%), effective since 14 of August. Finally, there was an increase in piped gas (2.20%), due to the rises of 5.71% in Rio de Janeiro (3.24%), in effect from August 1st, and 10.80% in Curitiba (10.80%), effective since August 1st and fully covered in the IPCA-15 of September.

In relation to regional indices, all surveyed areas increased in September. The lowest result occurred in Fortaleza (0.68%), influenced by the drop in the prices of tomatoes (-14.35%), meat (-0.94%) and pharmaceuticals (-0.91%). The biggest change was registered in Curitiba (1.58%), where the rises in gasoline (5.90%) and electricity (4.92%) weighed.

For the calculation of the IPCA-15, prices were collected between August 14 and September 14, 2021 (reference) and compared with those in effect from July 14 to August 13, 2021 (base). The indicator refers to families with income from 1 to 40 minimum wages and covers the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, in addition to Brasília and the municipality of Goiania. The methodology is the same as that of the IPCA, differing only in the price collection period and geographic coverage.