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Regional industry

Industrial production declines in 7 of 15 places surveyed in July

Section: Economic Statistics | Caio Belandi

September 09, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 10, 2021 08h16 PM

Reflecting the national result, the sector of beverges influenced decrease in Amanzonas - Photo: José Fernando Ogura/AEN-PR

Industrial production presented decrease in seven of the 15 places analyzed by the Monthly Survey of Industry (Regional PIM), from June to July. The main retreat was in Amazonas: -14.4%. The retraction in São Paulo (-2.9%) was the second biggest, but the first one in influence on the result, due to the weight of the São Paulo industry in the domestic production. The data were released today (September 9) by the IBGE. The domestic production fell 1.3%, as released by the IBGE last week (September 2).

With July’s result, three places are above the pre-pandemic level, of February 2020, with a highlight to Minas Gerais (11.8% above), which since July last year is the only p´lace to hold steady.  Santa Catarina (3.4%) and Paraná (0.4%), which was included in the list with July’s result, are the two other places.

For Bernardo Almeida, survey analyst, July depicts, mainly, the regional industry which was seen before the pandemic. “With the vaccination progress and a greater circulation of people, the industry starts showing its pre-pandemic reality, but with conditions that went sharper, as unemployment and inflation”, he says. According to the last results of the Continuous National Sample Household Survey (PNAD) and the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), Mr. Bernardo Almeida adds that “the regional industry’s result reflects the economic moment demonstrated by other IBGE surveys”.

After four positive rates, the decrease in Amazonas in July (-14.4%) eliminated part of the 18.6% growth accumulated in the period (March-June)”. Two very influential sectors in the state had a low performance: beverages and other transportation equipment”, explains Mr. Almeida. The decrease is sharper since April last year, when the industry of the Amazon reached its worst level in the time series (-48.7%), at the pandemic peak. With this result of July, Amazonas was the second main negative contribution to the National index and left the list of the places above the pre-pandemic level.

As the major negative influence and second greatest absolute drop, São Paulo recorded the second negative rate in a row, accumulating in two months a loss of 3.7%. "This drop in July is much related to the vehicle sector, which stood out negatively, and as already known, is one of the biggest in the São Paulo industry", says the analyst. July's result also took São Paulo out of the set of places above the pre-pandemic level and the state of São Paulo is now 0.4% below February 2020. Minas Gerais (-2.6%), Pará (-2.0%) , Rio Grande do Sul (-1.7%), Santa Catarina (-1.5%) and Rio de Janeiro (-1.4%) completed the set of places with a decline in production in July.

Among the places with highs, Bahia (6.7%) had the biggest growth in production and was the second biggest positive influence, driven by the petroleum derivatives sector. In the last two months (June-July), the industry of Bahia accumulated a gain of 20.6%. The first influence came from Paraná (3.3%), a result driven by the motor vehicles and petroleum derivatives sectors. Espírito Santo (3.7%), Northeast Region (3.4%), Pernambuco (2.5%), Ceará (1.5%), Mato Grosso (1.1%) and Goiás (0.8%) recorded the other positive regional results in July.

Compared to July 2020, seven places had highs

In comparison with July last year, whose national growth was 1.2%, seven of the 15 places surveyed showed growth in production. Espírito Santo (9.4%), Minas Gerais (8.6%), Paraná (8.2%) and Santa Catarina (7.8%) had the highest increases. Rio de Janeiro (2.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (2.4%) and São Paulo (1.3%) were the other places with growth in July.

On the other hand, Bahia (-12.2%), Pará (-10.9%) and the Northeast Region (-9.6%) had the most intense falls in this comparison, followed by Pernambuco (-8.6%), Amazonas (-8.1%), Ceará (-3.2%), Mato Grosso (-3.1%) and Goiás (-3.0%). It is worth mentioning that July 2021 (22 days) had one less business day than the same month in the previous year (23). Mr. Almeida also points out that, this month, the high positive results compared to July 2020 are influenced, to a great extent, by the low base of comparison. “In the same month of last year, the industrial sector was still under pressure due to the interruptions at several industrial plants, but it was already giving signs of production resumption, due to the relaxation of social isolation measures”, he concludes.

More about the survey

The Monthly Survey of Industry - Regional Physical Production - has produced, since the 1970s, short-term indicators relating to the behavior of the real product of the mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. It brings, every month, indexes for 14 Federation Units whose participation is at least 1% in the total value of the national industrial manufacturing and, also for the Northeast as a whole: Amazonas, Pará, Ceará, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and the Northeast Region.

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