Quarterly Accounts
Agriculture drops, yet GDP rises 1.2% over Q1 2017
May 30, 2018 09h00 AM | Last Updated: June 05, 2018 10h30 AM
The Gross Domestic Product - GDP increased 1.2% in the first quarter of 2018 compared with the same period a year ago, with a drop of 2.6% in agriculture. Industry and services rose 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively, leveraged by manufacturing industry, cargo transportation and wholesale trade. The GDP added up to R$1.6 trillion at current values. This result, part of the System of Quarterly National Accounts, was released today by the IBGE.
The negative rate of agriculture can be explained by the drop in the production of the major crops harvested in the first quarter of the year. According to the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production, released in May, the estimate of the annual production of some crops decreased. Rising 0.6%, soybeans was the exception, as explained by Cláudia Dionísio, manager of Quarterly National Accounts: "regardless of the low index, when we say that soybeans rose, we need to remind that it was a growth over the year in which it hit a record harvest".
Still comparing with the first quarter last year, consumption of households grew 2.8%, registering the fourth quarter of advance in a row, whereas investments – gross fixed capital formation – increased 3.5%, recording the second positive figure after 14 quarters of drops. Such improvement can be explained by the behavior of the credit indicators for natural persons, with lower inflation and interest rates: "by contrast, the labor market remains weakened, in which the income has been negatively contributing to the performance of the consumption of households", stressed Cláudia.
The investment rate, which is the gross fixed capital formation on the GDP, was 16%, the first rise since the first quarter of 2015, though the second lowest rate of the time series started in 1996. According to the manager of Quarterly National Accounts, the slight improvement "reflects the growth in volume of the investments that took place in the last quarters. It is possible to perceive an improvement in the confidence level of the entrepreneurs, though still insufficient to recover the losses taken place in the past".
GDP increases less compared with the fourth quarter last year
The GDP registered a positive change of 0.4% in relation to the fourth quarter of 2017, the fifth positive figure after eight consecutive drops in this type of comparison. Agriculture grew 1.4% over the previous quarter, whereas industry and services changed 0.1%.
Having increased 1.4% against the first quarter of 2017 and fallen 2.6% over the fourth quarter a year ago, the difference of the results in agriculture can be explained by the seasonality of the harvests. "Here we are comparing the first quarter, which harvests soybeans, with a quarter that does not harvest it. Seasonality should be taken into account", says her.
In this basis for comparison, the investments – gross fixed capital formation – increased 0.6% and the consumption of households, 0.5%.
