Trade sales were up 1.4% in May, after an increase of 4.9% in April. The result of May is the second consecutive increase of retail, which is now 3.95 above the pre-pandemic level. Cumulative indexes are 6.8%, in the year, and 5.4% in the last 12 months. Data comes from the Monthly Survey of Industry (PMC), released today (7) by the IBGE.

Sales increase was observed in seven of the eight activities surveyed by PMC. The biggest change was that of fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (16.8%), followed by fuels and lubricants (6.9%) and other personal and domestic articles (6.7%). Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (1.4%), office, computer and communication material and equipment (3.3%), hypermarkets, supermarkets, beverages, food products and tobacco (1.0%) and furniture and household appliances (0.6%) were other activities recording increase in sales in May. 

“These sectors have followed different paths. The activity fabric, wearing apparel and footwear, with the biggest change, had already increased 6.2%, but it is still way below the pre-pandemic figure. In addition to that, the sector recorded a new decrease in March this year. So recovery comes from a low comparison basis,” says the survey manager Cristiano Santos.

The only activity to register a decrease in volume of sales in May was pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (-1.4%). “Both this activity and hypermarkets and supermarkets were affected in different ways by the pandemic. They were both regarded as essential, with stores being kept open. That makes them different from the other sectors.”

Sales in extended retail trade, which includes, besides retail, the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (1.0%) and construction material (5.0%), increased by 3.8% from April to May. It is also the second month of increase in a row. “That was mainly due to the sector of vehicles, which has a low comparison basis and is not at pre-pandemic levels but has recovered since April. Construction also increased by the second consecutive month,” says the researcher.

According to Cristiano Santos, the cumulative indicator in the last 12 months points to sales acceleration. “In March 2020, that indicator was at 2.2% and then got to zero due to effects of the pandemic. Some time later, it grew gradually and, in the beginning of the year, fell again due to the aggravation of the pandemic. From March to April, there was an increase by three percentage points. Then up to May there was a moment of acceleration,” he explains.

The result of April, released last month as 1.8%, was revised to 4.9% this month. The adjustment is a consequence from the application of a deseasonalization algorithm, which removes seasonal effects of volume of trade purchases, such as in the festivities of Christmas and Easters, for example. “With the pandemic, there is a new scenario in trade, with striking differences. Carnival, for example, was not celebrated this year. So adjustment is based on information that have been included more recently in the month.”

Retail trade grows 16.0% from May 2020

Retail trade sales increased by 16.0% from May last year. For the third consecutive month, the indicator registered increase. Seven of the eight activities surveyed had positive results, mainly fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (165.2%), other personal and domestic articles (59.8%) and books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (59.4%).

“In relation to this indicator, we should keep in mind the comparison basis was extremely low. That was the record in the survey time series. So, figures were high, especially in the fabric segment, due to decreases registered in the months of March, April and May 2020. So that reflects this very low basis for comparison, as in other sectors,” Mr. Santos says.

Extended retail trade also had its third increase in a row against the same month a year ago. In May, increase was of 26.2%, mainly due to the performance of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (71.9%) and construction material (25.7%).

In retail trade, the only sector with a decrease in sales against May last year was hypermarkets and supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-4.1%). “At the time this sector had encompassed the demand for other products usually consumed in other sectors. It increased in some moments, then decelerated, but had a high basis in March, April and May last year. That accounts for the decrease in the last three months,” the researcher explains.

26 Federation Units record increase in sales

From April to May, retail trade increased in 26 of the 27 Federation Units. Amapá (23.3%), Ceará (9.4%) and Minas Gerais (9.2%) stand out. Goiás (-0.3%) was the only Federation Unit to record retraction in volume of sales.

In extended retail trade, there was a predominance of positive results. Among the 24 Federation Units that recorded increase in volume of sales, Amapá (21.6%), Minas Gerais (8.6%) and Federal District (6.9%) stand out. The three states with negative rates were Sergipe (-4.9%), Ceará (-1.0%) and Tocantins (-0.3%).

In comparison with May last year, retail trade recorded positive results in 26 Federation Units. Highlights, in terms of change, were Amapá (92.0%), Piauí (44.6%) and Pará (43.4%). São Paulo (19.0%), Rio de Janeiro (17.4%) and Minas Gerais (11.3%) were the states accounting for the biggest share of the retail trade rate.

In the same comparison, in extended retail trade, 27 Federation Units recorded increase, with the most significant in Amapá (105.3%), Piauí (62.4%) and Pará (57.5%).

More about the survey

PMC produces indicators that make it possible to monitor the current behavior of retail trade in the country, investigating the gross resale revenue of formally incorporated enterprises, with 20 or more persons employed, and whose main activity is retail trade.

Started in 1995, the PMC brings monthly results of the changes in the sales volume and nominal revenue for the retail trade and extended retail trade (cars and construction materials) for Brazil and Federation Units. The data collection techniques employed in the survey are the Electronic Self-Filled Questionnaire (CASI) and the Personal Interview with a Paper Questionnaire (PAPI). Results can be found at the Sidradatabase.