IPCA-15
Inflation preview was 0.83% in June, leveraged by gasoline and electricity
June 25, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: June 25, 2021 04h50 PM
The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), the official inflation preview, stayed at 0.83% in June, accelerating in relation to the previous month by registering 0.39 percentage points (p.p.) above the May´s rate (0.44%). More than one third of the rate recorded in June is due to the rises in gasoline and electricity, each one contributing with 0.17 percentage points, the biggest individual impacts.
The cumulative index in the quarter ended in June (IPCA-E) is 1.88%, whereas that change had been -0.58% in the same period of 2020. The cumulative change over the year was 4.13% and, in the last 12 months, 8.13%, above the rate of 7.27% recorded in the 12 immediately previous months. In June 2020, the rate had been 0.02%. The data were released today (25) by the IBGE.
In terms of groups surveyed, the highest change was reported in housing (1.67%), which accelerated in relation to the previous month (0.79%) and contributed with 0.26 p.p. to the month´s result. The increase was leveraged by electricity, due to the change in the tariff flag from red level 1 (R$4.169) to red level 2 (R$6.243). The change in the tariff flag was due to the water crisis, which has required the activation of thermal power plants, whose energy is more expensive. The extra values of the tariff flags are charged at each 100 kWh consumed.
Yet, the biggest impact (0.28 p.p.) in June came from transportation (1.35%), which was the only group to drop in May (-0.23%). The result of the group of transportation (1.35%) was influenced by the rise in the prices of fuels (3.69%). Although gasoline (2.86%) had been one of the lowest rises in the group of transportation - compared with vehicular gas (12.41%), ethanol (9.12%) and diesel fuel (3.53%) -, it has the highest weight and already accrues a change of 45.86% over the last 12 months.
Food and beverages remain rising, though in a stable way. In June, the rise was of 0.41%, close to the May´s IPCA-15 (0.48%). Food at home changed from 0.50% in May to 0.15% in June.
The retreat in the prices of fruits (-6.44%), potatoes (-9.41%), onions (-10.32%) and rice (-1.91%) contributed to that deceleration. On the other hand, meat (1.14%) remains rising. In addition, the prices of long-life milk (2.57%) and some derivatives like cheese (1.99%) also increased.
The movement was reverse in food away from home (1.08%). Both meals (0.86%) and snacks (1.67%) accelerated in relation to May, when they registered inflation of 0.16% and 0.72%, respectively. The rises can be partially explained by the increase in the prices of proteins like meat and cheese, as well as by the increase of other costs like transportation and energy.
The group of health and personal care (0.53%), in turn, changed less than in the previous month (1.23%) and contributed with 0.07 p.p. to the overall index.
More about the IPCA-15
The National System of Consumer Price Indexes – SNIPC produces continuously and systematically consumer price indexes. Released on the Internet since May 2000, the IPCA-15 differs from the IPCA only in the period of price collection, which is usually from day 16 of the previous month until day 15 of the reference month, as well as in the geographic coverage.
Today, the target population of the IPCA-15 encompasses households with earnings between 1 and 40 minimum wages, whatever the source, living in 11 urban areas of the regions included in the SNIPC, which are: metropolitan areas of Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, as well as the Federal District and the municipality of Goiânia.
