The industrial sector fell 0.2% in July, compared to June, remaining predominantly negative since April, when it accumulated a 1.5% loss. With this result, industrial production is 1.7% above its pre-pandemic level (February 2020), but still 15.3% below the record level reached in May 2011. Compared to July 2024, industrial production rose 0.2%.

Year-to-date, compared to the same period last year, the industrial sector grew 1.1%, and over 12 months, 1.9%. The quarterly moving average fell 0.3% in the quarter ended in July, compared to the previous month, after also falling in June (-0.4%). Data are from the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM), released today (3) by the IBGE.

According to survey manager André Macedo, "an important evidence of the reduced intensity that has marked the industry's behavior since April is seen in the small positive difference compared to December 2024 – currently, the industry is only 0.3% above the end of last year," explains the survey manager.

"In cyclical terms, the effects of a more restrictive monetary policy stand out – which makes credit more expensive, increases default rates, and negatively affects consumption and investment decisions. These factors contributed to limiting the pace of industrial production growth in the period, resulting in more moderate results compared to previous months," analyzes Mr. Macedo.

There was a decline in production in 13 of the 25 industrial activities. Basic metals had the greatest impact, with a 2.3% drop, interrupting two consecutive months of growth, when it had accumulated a 1.6% gain. Other negative impacts came from other transportation equipment (-5.3%), printing and reproduction of recorded media (-11.3%), beverages (-2.2%), maintenance, repair, and installation of machinery and equipment (-3.7%), computer equipment, electronics, and optical products (-2.0%), miscellaneous products (-3.5%), and rubber and plastic products (-1.0%).

Among the eleven activities with increased production, the main positive impacts came from pharmaceuticals (7.9%), food products (1.1%), mining and quarrying industries (0.8%), and chemicals (1.8%). Of note were the positive impacts recorded by coke, petroleum products, and biofuels (0.6%), machinery and equipment (1.2%), and pulp, paper, and paper products (0.7%).

From June to July, durable consumer goods (-0.5%) and capital goods (-0.2%) recorded negative rates in July 2025, with both declining again after a 0.2% increase in the previous month. On the other hand, intermediate goods (0.5%) and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (0.1%) showed positive results this month, with the former eliminating the 0.2% loss accumulated in June and May and the latter interrupting three consecutive months of production declines, a period in which it accumulated a 5.6% loss.

Industrial production changes 0.2% compared to July 2024

Compared to the same month of the previous year, the industrial sector recorded a positive change of 0.2% in July 2025, with positive results in one of the four broad economic categories, 12 of the 25 sectors, 39 of the 80 groups, and 47.8% of the 789 products surveyed. It is worth noting that July 2025 (23 days) had the same number of business days as the same month in the previous year (23).

Among the activities, the main positive influence on the industry total was recorded by mining and quarrying industries (6.3%), an activity driven primarily by the increased production of crude petroleum and natural gas. Also noteworthy were the positive contributions from food products (2.2%), pharmaceuticals (12.0%), machinery and equipment (5.2%), chemicals (1.9%), textiles (9.9%), pulp, paper, and paper products (3.8%), and maintenance, repair, and installation of machinery and equipment (8.7%).

"The mining and quarrying sector showed positive performance in all comparisons, even exerting the main positive impact on the industry's overall results. Crude petroleum and natural gas stand out in this sector, with increasing production and records throughout the year. Also noteworthy in this sector are the positive results in 2025 for iron ore, manganese ore, and copper ore," explains Mr. Macedo.

Of the 13 sectors experiencing declines, compared to July 2024, coke, petroleum products, and biofuels (-7.7%) exerted the greatest influence on the industry average, largely pressured by lower ethyl alcohol production. Other significant negative impacts were recorded in the beverage sector (-8.8%), printing and reproduction of recordings (-29.1%), fabricated metal products (-5.0%), and miscellaneous products (-12.2%), electrical machinery, equipment, and materials (-3.6%), and non-metallic mineral products (-3.0%).

More about the survey

PIM Brasil has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of real output in the mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. In March 2023, the new series of monthly industrial production indices began to be released, following a reformulation to update the sample of activities, products, and respondents; develop a new weighting structure for the indices based on more recent industrial statistics; update the survey's reference base year; and include new Federation Units into the dissemination of regional survey results. These methodological changes are necessary and seek to reflect the economic changes in society.

The results can be found on Sidra. The next PIM Brasil release, for August 2025, will be on October 3rd.