After registering rates of -0.7% in November and -0.2% in October, the industrial output changed -0.3% in December 2024, the third consecutive month of negative figures in the production. With this result, the industrial output is 1.3% above the pre-pandemic level (FEbruary 2020), though still 15.6% below the record level reached in May 2011. The data come from the Monthly Survey of Industry (PIM), released today (5) by the IBGE.

"A widespread profile of negative rates in the index is noticed this month, reaching three out of four broad economic categories and 15 out of 25 industrial sectors surveyed. The major negative influences were registered by machinery and equipment, which dropped 3.0%, interrupting two consecutive months of positive figures, and by rubber products and plastic material, which retreated 2.5% and recorded the second consecutive drop in the output," points out André Macedo, PIM´s Manager.

On the other hand, Macedo highlights that among eight industrial activities that grew their output, the major positive impacts in December 2024 were reported by mining and quarrying industries and by the sector of beverages, the former segment registering the second consecutive month of growth and the latter interrupting four consecutive months of negative rates.

Industrial sector accumulates rise of 3.1% in 2024, the third best result over the last 15 years

After changing 0.1% in 2023, the sector advanced 3.1% in the cumulative index in the year. It is the third highest figure of industry in the last 15 years, just behind 2010, when it recorded an index of 10.2% and 2021, with a rate of 3.9%, after the recovery of the pandemic, when the sector fell 4.% in 2020. It should be highlighted that the growth in 2010 was preceded by a retreat of 7.1% in 2009.

The PIM´s manager highlights that the 2024 result was quite widespread, with four broad economic categories and 20 out of 25 industrial sectors expanding their output. In 2021, 18 out of 25 activities reported positive rates.

"In general, the growth in the industrial sector in 2024 can be attributed to some factors, like a higher number of persons incorporated into the labor market, the drop in the unemployment rate, the increase in the wage bill and a bigger consumption by families, benefited from tax incentives, a higher income and the evolution in credit granting," explains him.

The major positive influences on the overall industry were registered by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (12.5%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (14.7%), electrical machinery and apparatus (12.2%), food products (1.5%) and chemicals (3.3%).

Even with a 2024 picture showing a higher positive figure than those in previous years, the last three months of the year reduced their pace, with a cumulative loss of 1.2% in the period. The movement of three consecutive drops - October (-0.2%), November (-0.7%) and December (-0.3%) - did not happen since February-April 2021, when the cumulative loss had been 5.3%.

"The loss in the dynamism of industry is related to the reduction in the confidence level of families and businessmen, explained, to a great extent, by a tighter monetary policy with the increase in the interests rate in September 2024, a currency devaluation impacting costs, and a higher inflation, especially of food," analyzes Macedo.

Quarterly moving average index was -0.4% in quarter ending in December

After recording 0.0% in November, 0.3% in October and -0.2% in September, the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry registered a negative change of 0.4% in the quarter ended in December 2024 over the level in the previous month.

Still concerning the marginal movement of this index among the broad economic categories, semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.8%) reported the highest negative rate in December 2024 and registered the fourth drop in a row, a period in which it accumulated a loss of 3.8%. The sector producing capital goods (-0.6%) also registered a negative figure this month and interrupted three consecutive months of growth, a period in which it accumulated a gain of 2.8%. After recording negative rates in November (-0.3%) and October 2024 (-0.1%), the sector producing durable consume goods recorded a null change (0.0%) this month. In contrast, the segment of intermediate goods (0.2%) registered the only positive figure in December 2024 and maintained the upward path started in May 2024.

More on the survey

PIM Brazil has been producing short-term indicators since the 1970s regarding the behavior of the real product of mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries. March 2023 marked the beginning of the release of the new time series of monthly indexes of the industrial production, after a redesign to update the sample of activities, products and informants; create a new weighting structure of the indexes based on the most recent industrial statistics; update the base year of reference of the survey; and incorporate new Federation Units in the release of regional results of the survey. These methodological changes are required and they aim at incorporating the economic changes of the society.

The survey results can also be consulted at the Sidra database.

The next release of the industrial output - Brazil, with the results for January 2025, will be on March 11.