The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released today (12) by the IBGE, shows that the national crops of cereals, legumes and oilseeds should total 314.8 million tonnes in 2025. This is 7.0% or 20.5 million tonnes higher than the crops obtained in 2024.

The increase in production is due to the higher previewed estimate, mainly, for soybeans (12.9% or 18,656,679 t), for 1st crop corn (9.3% or 2,128,619 t), for rice (6.5% or 686,911 t) and for 1st crop beans (29.0% or 262,238 t). For upland cotton seed, a decline of 0.8% or -40,885 tonnes was estimated; for second-crop corn, a decline of 0.1% or -136,331 tonnes; while for sorghum and wheat, reductions of 4.9% or -199,584 tonnes and 10.9% or -891,102 tonnes, respectively, were estimated.

“We expect an increase in production, a recovery from the losses we had in 2024. Although the 2025 agricultural year is delayed due to the delay in rainfalls in the grain-producing states, when those reainfalls came, producers joined efforts and quickly planted those crops and, now, they are doing relatively well, which increases the expectation of a rise in the crops for 2025”, highlighted Carlos Barradas.

The total estimated area for cultivation of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2025 was 79.8 million hectares, an increase of 0.8% compared to 2024. Regarding the predicted area, positive changes were seen in paddy rice (5.2%), first-crop beans (7.1%), upland cotton seed (1.0%), second-crop corn (0.9%) and soybeans (1.4%), and negative changes were seen in first-crop corn (-1.9%), sorghum (-4.7%) and wheat (-3.9%).

There were increases in production estimates in Mato Grosso (1.9%), Paraná (11.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (12.4%), Mato Grosso do Sul (24.1%), Minas Gerais (6.1%), Goiás (5.0%), Bahia (6.7%), São Paulo (16.3%), Tocantins (0.3%), Santa Catarina (4.6%), Piauí (2.3%) and Rondônia (10.6%). Declines in production estimates are expected for Maranhão (-0.2%), Sergipe (-1.7%) and Pará (-7.7%).

2024 crop is expected to be 6.7% smaller than that of 2023

The survey also provides the November estimate for the 2024 crops of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, which reached 294.3 million tonnes, 6.7% lower than that obtained in 2023 (315.4 million tonnes), a decrease of 21.1 million tonnes. Compared to October, there was an increase of 545.5 thousand tonnes (0.2%).

The area to be harvested this year is expected to be 79.1 million hectares, which represents a growth of 1.6% (1.2 million hectares more) compared to the area harvested in 2023. Compared to the previous month, the area to be harvested showed an expansion of 416.4 thousand hectares (0.5%).

“This 6.7% drop in the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2024 compared to 2023 is due to weather problems, which occurred in most of the producing states, mainly in the Central-West and South Regions. In these regions, lack of rain and high temperatures affected both harvests. In the state of Rio Grande do Sul, there was still a large volume of rain in the months of April and May of this year”, highlights the manager of LSPA, Carlos Barradas.

The main negative highlights of the 2024 crops compared to 2023 are the estimates for the production of corn and sorghum. Compared to 2023, there were increases in the estimated production of upland cotton seed (14.8%), rice (3.1%), beans (5.7%) and wheat (5.0%). On the other hand, soybeans (-4.7%), corn (-11.9%) (with -17.8% in 1st crop corn and -10.3% in 2nd crop corn) and sorghum (-5.8%) declined. Corn, soybeans and rice represent 92.1% of the production estimate and are responsible for 87.2% of the harvested area.

When compared to 2023, but in terms of the area to be harvested, there was growth of 16.2% in upland cotton seed, 6.0% in paddy rice, 7.1% in beans and 4.0% in soybeans. The areas of corn (-3.1%, with -9.8% in 1st crop corn and -1.0% in 2nd crop corn), wheat (-11.7%) and sorghum (-1.1%) showed declines.

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for September showed a positive annual change for the North Region (10.1%), while the change was negative for the others: South (-1.0%), Central-West (-10.0%), Southeast (-15.7%) and Northeast (-4.0%). As for the monthly change, production growth was seen in the South Region (0.1%) and Central-West Region (0.6%). The Northeast and Southeast regions remained stable (0.0%), while the North Region saw a decline (-2.1%). Compared to October, there were increases in the production estimates for grapes (19.3% or 282,034 t), sorghum (3.2% or 124,788 t), cocoa (1.5% or 4,177 t), tomatoes (1.4% or 57,947 t), oats (1.1% or 12,998 t), 2nd crop beans (1.0% or 14,071 t), soybeans (0.3% or 363,238 t), 2nd crop corn (0.1% or 62,210 t) and barley (0.0% or 16 t).

On the other hand, there were declines in the estimate of cashew nut production (-0.8% or -1,167 t), wheat (-0.3% or -24,736 t), first-crop beans (-0.2% or -1,880 t) and first-crop corn (-0.2% or -45,758 t).

“We had an increase in cotton production due to its price being more profitable in relation to corn, during the planting of the second crop. Therefore, some producers expanded the cotton areas, making them the largest in the IBGE time series”, adds Mr. Barradas.

With a 31.2% share, Mato Grosso leads the national grain production

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a 31.2% share, followed by Paraná (12.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (12.0%), Goiás (11.0%), Mato Grosso do Sul (6.8%) and Minas Gerais (5.6%), which together accounted for 79.3% of the total. Regarding regional shares, the distribution is as follows: Central-West (49.3%), South (26.8%), Northeast (8.8%), Southeast (8.8%) and North (6.3%).

The main positive absolute changes in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Goiás (904,547 t), Bahia (62,080 t), Santa Catarina (29,614 t), Sergipe (21,085 t), Tocantins (19,535 t), Paraná (10,200 t), Minas Gerais (6,120 t), Maranhão (1,459 t), the Federal District (468 t), Rio de Janeiro (178 t), and Rondônia (99 t). Negative changes occurred in Pará (-393,952 t), Paraíba (-34,485 t), Alagoas (-32,578 t), Mato Grosso (-20,718 t), Roraima (-14,119 t), Ceará (-11,809 t), Pernambuco (-1,684 t) and Rio Grande do Norte (-518 t).

About LSPA

Implemented in November 1972 with the purpose of meeting users' demands for monthly statistical information, the LSPA provides estimates of planted area, harvested area, amount produced and average yield of products selected based on criteria of economic and social importance for the country. It allows not only the monitoring of each crop investigated, from the planting intention phase until the end of the harvest, in the reference calendar year, but also the forecast for the following year's harvest, for which the survey is carried out in the months of October, November and December. Pelase, access the data in  Sidra. The next release of the LSPA, for November, will be on January 14.