In November, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2024 should total 294.3 million tonnes, 6.7% lower than that obtained in 2023 (315.4 million tonnes), with a reduction of 21.1 million tonnes; and 0.2% above that reported in October, with an increase of 545.5 thousand tonnes.

The area to be harvested is 79.1 million hectares, an increase of 1.6% compared to the area harvested in 2023, with a rise of 1.2 million hectares, and of 0.5% (416.4 thousand hectares) compared to October.

Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products, together represent 92.1% of the estimated production and account for 87.2% of the area to be harvested. Compared to 2023, there were increases of 16.2% in the area to be harvested for upland cotton (seed), 6.0% for paddy rice, 7.1% for beans, and 4.0% for soybeans, with declines of 3.1% in the area for corn (a drop of 9.8% for  corn 1st crop and 1.0% for corn 2nd crop), 11.7% for wheat, and 1.1% for sorghum.

In relation to production, there were increases of 14.8% for upland cotton (seed), 3.1% for rice, 5.7% for beans and 5.0% for wheat, and decreases of 4.7% for soybeans, 11.9% for corn (reductions of 17.8% in  corn 1st crop and 10.3% in corn 2nd crop) and 5.8% for sorghum.

Brazilian grain crops are expected to total 314.8 million tonnes in 2025

The Brazilian grain crops (cereals, legumes and oilseeds) in 2025 are expected to total 314.8 million tonnes, an increase of 7.0% compared to 2024 or 20.5 million tonnes. The increase in production is due to the higher forecast, mainly, for soybeans (12.9% or 18,656,679 t), for corn 1st crop (9.3% or 2,128,619 t), for rice (6.5% or 686,911 t) and for beans 1st crop (29.0% or 262,238 t).

The November estimate for soybeans was 144.9 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was 115.5 million tonnes (22.8 million tonnes of corn 1st crop and 92.7 million tonnes for corn  2nd crop). Rice production was estimated at 10.6 million tonnes; wheat at 8.1 million tonnes; upland cotton seed at 8.9 million tonnes; and sorghum at 4.1 million tonnes.

The estimate for the production of cereals, legumes, and oilseeds showed a positive annual change for the North Region (10.1%), while for the others, the change was negative: South (-1.0%), Central-West (-10.0%), Southeast (-15.7%), and Northeast (-4.0%). As for the monthly change, production growth was seen in the South (0.1%) and Central-West (0.6%) Regions. The Northeast and Southeast Regions remained stable (0.0%), while the North region declined (-2.1%).

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 31.2%, followed by Paraná (12.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (12.0%), Goiás (11.0%), Mato Grosso do Sul (6.8%) and Minas Gerais (5.6%), which together accounted for 79.3% of the total.

Highlights in the November 2024 estimate compared to the previous month

In relation to October, there were increases in the production estimates for grapes (19.3% or 282,034 t), sorghum (3.2% or 124,788 t), cocoa (1.5% or 4,177 t), tomatoes (1.4% or 57,947 t), oats (1.1% or 12,998 t), beans second-crop (1.0% or 14,071 t), soybeans (0.3% or 363,238 t), corn second-crop  (0.1% or 62,210 t) and barley (0.0% or 16 t), and declines in the production estimate for cashew nuts (-0.8% or -1,167 t), wheat (-0.3% or -24,736 t) and wheat (-0.3% or -24,736 t). t), beans first-crop  (-0.2% or -1,880 t) and corn first-crop (-0.2% or -45,758 t),

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was distributed as follows: Central-West, 145.0 million tonnes (49.3%); South, 79.0 million tonnes (26.8%); Northeast, 25.8 million tonnes (8.8%); Southeast, 25.8 million tonnes (8.8%) and North, 18.5 million tonnes (6.3%).

The main positive absolute changes in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Goiás (904,547 t), Bahia (62,080 t), Santa Catarina (29,614 t), Sergipe (21,085 t), Tocantins (19,535 t), Paraná (10,200 t), Minas Gerais (6,120 t), Maranhão (1,459 t), the Federal District (468 t), Rio de Janeiro (178 t), and Rondônia (99 t). The negative changes occurred in Pará (-393,952 t), Paraíba (-34,485 t), Alagoas (-32,578 t), Mato Grosso (-20,718 t), Roraima (-14,119 t), Ceará (-11,809 t), Pernambuco (-1,684 t) and Rio Grande do Norte (-518 t).

COCOA (almond) - The estimate for Brazilian cocoa production was 284.1 thousand tonnes, an increase of 1.5% compared to the previous month, and a reduction of 2.2% compared to 2023. The 3.6% drop in crop productivity was the main reason, with reviews being carried out in Pará, Roraima and Mato Grosso. Pará is the country's main cocoa producer, with a production of 152.6 thousand tonnes of almonds, an increase of 2.8% compared to the previous month and 1.3% compared to 2023. The main reason for the increase was the expansion of the cultivated area by 4.4% when compared to the previous year, encouraged by attractive market prices.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) - The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oats and barley. For wheat (grain), the estimated production reaches 8.1 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous month, and growth of 5.0% compared to 2023, when Brazil, despite initially expecting a record crop, had its expectations frustrated due to a series of weather problems, damaging crops in the South Region.

The production of oats (grain) was estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, an increase of 1.1% compared to October and 31.3% compared to 2023. The average yield showed an increase of 0.8% compared to the previous month and growth of 32.1% compared to 2023, when adverse weather damaged winter crops in the South Region of the country. The largest producers of the cereal are Rio Grande do Sul, with 919.0 thousand tonnes, an increase of 57.4% compared to the volume harvested in 2023; and Paraná, with 167.0 thousand tonnes, an increase of 2.9% compared to October and a decline of 32.5% compared to 2023.

For barley (grain), the estimated production was 427.3 thousand tonnes, an increase of 12.6% compared to the previous year. The planted area shows a decline of 11.3%, while the average yield increased by 26.6%. In 2023, the adverse weather affected winter crops in the South of the country, thus reducing the comparison base for the current harvest. The largest barley producers are Paraná, with 287.9 ​​thousand tonnes, an increase of 0.7% compared to October and 3.7% compared to 2023, participating with 67.4% in the 2024 crop, and Rio Grande do Sul, with a production of 118.7 thousand tonnes, with a share of 27.8% of the total.

BEANS (seed) - The estimate for bean production, considering the three crops, should reach 3.1 million tonnes, an increase of 0.4% compared to the previous month and 5.7% over the 2023 crop. This production should meet Brazilian domestic consumption in 2024, with no need to import the product. Paraná is the largest Brazilian producer of beans, with 829.9 thousand tonnes or 26.6% of the national production, followed by Minas Gerais with 532.5 thousand tonnes or 17.1% of the share and Goiás with 349.5 thousand tonnes or 11.2% of the share.

The production of beans1st bean crop was 902.9 thousand tonnes, representing 28.9% of the national share among the three crops, being 0.2% lower than the October estimate. In this comparison, the drop was seen in the harvested area (-0.5%), with an increase of 0.3% in the average yield. Production declined in Pará (37.0%), Ceará (-1.4%), Rio Grande do Norte (-1.7%) and Paraíba (-34.6%), and growth in Rondônia (1.1%), Pernambuco (4.8%) and Roraima (1,569.4%), with this Federation Unit having reviewed the cultivated areas and crop productivity. Beans 2nd crop was estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, corresponding to 45.5% of the share among the three crops. Compared to October, there was a 1.0% increase in production, justified by the 1.3% increase in the area to be harvested, since the yield declined by 0.3%. More than half of the beans produced in this cro (52.9%) comes from the South Region, with Paraná being the largest producer, with 668.8 thousand tonnes or 47.1% of the total crop. For beans 3rd crop, the production estimate for October was 796.8 thousand tonnes.

CORN (grain) - The estimated corn production totaled 115.5 million tonnes, a drop of 11.9% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month. Despite the 0.3% increase in the harvested area, the 0.2% reduction in yield (5,394 kg/ha) caused production to grow by only 16,452 tonnes (0.0%). All regions showed growth in production and average yield in the monthly comparison, with the exception of the Southeast region, which remained stable, and the Central-West region, which showed declines of 0.2% in production and 0.6% in productivity.

Corn first crop showed a reduction of 0.2% in production compared to the previous month (45,758 tonnes), totaling 22.8 million tonnes, due to a reduction in the harvested area of ​​0.4%, although the average yield was 4,889 kg/ha, 0.2% higher than October 2024. In the annual comparison, production declined by 17.8%, due to the 8.8% drop in productivity and 10.2% in the planted area. Only the North region showed growth, compared to the production of the previous month, of 6.4%, related to the 4.8% increase in the average yield and 1.5% in the area.

The production of corn second crop was 92.7 million tonnes, a reduction of 10.3% in the annual comparison, justified by the drop in the average yield, of 9.3% (5,535 kg/ha). Compared to the month of October, there was an increase of 0.1% or 62.2 thousand tonnes more in production, related to the 0.4% growth in the planted and harvested areas. The Brazilian regions that showed growth in the monthly estimates were the Northeast (2.0%) and the South (0.3%), while the Central-West and Southeast showed drops of 0.1% and 0.0%, respectively. The North showed stability in production.

SOYBEAN (grain) - Production should reach 144.9 million tonnes, which represents a decrease of 4.7% compared to the amount produced in the previous year, totaling 46.0 million hectares harvested. The production of oilseeds represents almost half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2024. This month, there were more significant reviews in Goiás, which showed an increase of 833.6 thousand tonnes, representing 5.2% of the state's production, and in Pará, with a reduction of 449.9 thousand tonnes, representing 10.9% of the quantity produced. These adjustments represented, in percentage terms, a monthly increase of 0.3% in the national estimate. Mato Grosso continues to be the largest soybean producer in the country, maintaining its production estimate at 39.1 million tonnes, a decrease of 12.0% in the year, participating with 27.0% of the national production of the oilseed. Paraná should be the second largest producer in the country, maintaining its production estimate at 18.6 million tonnes, just ahead of Rio Grande do Sul, with 18.3 million tonnes.

SORGHUM (grain) - The November estimate for sorghum production was 4.1 million tonnes, an increase of 3.2% compared to October and a decrease of 5.8% compared to the 2023 crop. The national average yield was 3,037 kg/ha, representing a reduction of 6.8% in the annual comparison and an increase of 0.4% in the monthly comparison. Sorghum occupied 1.3 million hectares, with 1.6% of the areas allocated to cereals, legumes and oilseeds in the 2024 crop, representing 1.3% of this production. The monthly increase is due to the review of production in Goiás, which in the current crop is harvesting 1.6 million tonnes, an increase of 8.7% compared to the previous month. The planted area and the harvested area show an increase of 8.2%, while the average yield increased by 0.5%.

TOMATOES - The estimated tomato production was 4.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.4% compared to the previous month and 9.7% compared to 2023. In the monthly comparison, there was an increase of 1.0% in the area and 0.3% in the average yield. In the annual comparison, there was an increase of 4.3% in the harvested area and 5.2% in the average yield. The largest tomato producers are Goiás, with 1.4 million tonnes or 33.2% of the national total; São Paulo, with 981.5 thousand tonnes and a 22.8% share; and Minas Gerais, with 589.8 thousand tonnes and a 13.7% share. Production increases compared to October occurred in Rondônia (0.7%), Paraíba (4.5%), Pernambuco (4.2%), Minas Gerais (6.7% or 37,122 tonnes), Paraná (0.1%), Santa Catarina (0.6%) and Goiás (1.7% or 23,190 tonnes). Declines were seen in Roraima (-8.6%) and Rio de Janeiro (-5.1%).

In the annual comparison, there was an increase in production in Goiás (38.8%), Minas Gerais (5.0%), Paraná (9.6%), Ceará (5.7%), Bahia (1.5%), Espírito Santo (1.1%), Rio de Janeiro (4.5%), Alagoas (47.4%) and Rio Grande do Norte (12.9%). Declines were seen in São Paulo (-5.6%), Santa Catarina (-6.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (-7.4%), Pernambuco (-18.5%), the Federal District (-0.2%) and Paraíba (-7.0%).

GRAPES - Grape production was 1.7 million tonnes, an increase of 19.3% compared to 2023 and 1.3% compared to 2023. In November, Pernambuco reviewed its production estimate, reporting a growth of 64.7% compared to October, with an increase of 60.0% in the area and 3.0% in the average yield. Compared to 2023, Pernambuco's production shows a growth of 61.2%, with increases of 56.9% in the harvested area and 2.7% in the average yield. With a production of 717.0 thousand tonnes, the State is the largest national producer, with a share of 41.2% of the total. Rio Grande do Sul, whose production reached 703.0 thousand tonnes in the current season, became the second largest producer, having reported a 22.3% decline in production when compared to the previous year, with a 23.9% drop in average yield, affected by the unfavorable weather during the year. Other important producers are: São Paulo, with 144.8 thousand tonnes (-10.7%), Paraná, with 56.7 thousand tonnes (-0.4%), Santa Catarina, with 36.9 thousand tonnes (-33.3%) and Minas Gerais, with 19.2 thousand tonnes (-4.4%).

UPLAND COTTON (seed) - The estimate for cotton production is 8.8 million tonnes, practically the same as the 2024 harvest (-0.8%). In relation to the first preview, there were small adjustments, an increase of 0.2% in expected production, with a reduction of 0.5% in productivity and an increase of 0.6% in the planted area, which should reach 2.0 million hectares. In relation to 2024, the initial expectation is for a reduction of 0.8%, with a growth of 1.0% in the planted area and a reduction of 1.7% in the average yield of crops. Mato Grosso, the largest national producer, expected to participate with 70.8% of the national total, should present a production of 6.2 million tonnes, a reduction of 0.6% in relation to the first estimate and of 1.5% in relation to 2024.

RICE (in husk) - The estimate for 2025 points to a production of 11.3 million tonnes, growth of 6.5%, in relation to the previous year's harvest, with an increase of 5.2% in the area to be harvested; and a 1.2% increase in average yield.

BEANS (grain) - The second forecast for bean production in 2025, considering the three harvests, is 3.4 million tonnes, an increase of 8.2% compared to the crop harvested in 2024. The 1st crop should produce 1.2 million tonnes, the 2nd crop, 1.4 million tonnes and the 3rd crop, 774.9 thousand tonnes.

The area to be harvested in the summer crop (1st crop) should reach 1.3 million hectares, an increase of 7.1% compared to 2024, while the estimate for the average yield, of 866.0 kg/ha, represents a growth of 20.4%. Production should grow by 29.0%.

Production estimates for the 2nd and 3rd bean crops, since they will be fully planted and harvested in 2025, are still likely to change greatly, reflecting the current price situation for the product and expectations regarding the weather, mainly. Since these elements are currently unknown, it is considered that the current crop information is subject to major changes in the course of the next previews, as well as in the monthly data from the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production for next year.

CORN (in grain) - The estimate for corn production in 2025 is 117.5 million tonnes, an increase of 1.4% compared to the 1st forecast for 2025 and 1.7% compared to the crop harvested in 2024. Both the growth in the monthly and annual estimates are a reflection of a positive adjustment in the average yield (5,473 kg/ha), of 0.7% and 1.5%, and of the increase in the total area of ​​0.7% and 0.3%, respectively.

For corn 1st crop , the estimate is a production of 24.9 million tonnes, remaining stable in relation to the 1st forecast and showing a growth of 9.3% in relation to the 2024 crop. The positive annual adjustment in the average yield (5,451 kg/ha), of 11.5%, justifies the advance, since there is a decline of 2.9% in the area to be planted (136.8 thousand hectares less). The increase of 15.3% in the production estimate for the Southern Region, with 40.6% of national participation, in relation to what was produced in 2024, also contributes to the advance in the estimates.

For corn second crop, the production estimate is 92.6 million tonnes, an increase of 1.8% compared to the first forecast, due to the 0.8% increase in productivity (5,479 kg/ha) and 1.0% in the planted area and the area to be harvested. However, the values ​​were still not enough to recover production in relation to the 2024 crop, showing a decline of 0.1%, even with a positive adjustment of 0.8% of the planted area (135.5 thousand hectares more).

SOYBEAN (grain) - The second estimate of soybean production for 2025 showed a positive monthly adjustment of 2.0% in the volume produced, which should total 163.5 million tonnes, an increase of 12.9% compared to 2024, which would characterize a new record in the national production of the legume, surpassing the production recorded in 2023. The annual production leap is mainly due to the expected increase of 11.3% in the average yield, which should total 3,507 kg/ha, and a lower comparative base, after the average productivity in the country registered a drop in the previous crop.

SORGHUM (grain) - The November forecast for the 2025 sorghum crop is 3.9 million tonnes, an increase of 1.3% compared to the previous forecast, and a decline of 4.9% compared to the amount harvested in the 2024 crop. The production area was estimated at 1.3 million hectares, a reduction of 4.7% compared to the previous year, with declines occurring mainly in the Central-West (-3.9%) and Southeast (-6.0%). These regions are, respectively, the main and second in productive importance in terms of sorghum. For the average yield, a negative change of 0.2% is expected compared to that obtained in 2024.