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Agricultural production

2024 harvest should stay at 299.6 million tonnes, 5.0% lower than in 2023

Section: Economic Statistics | Vinícius Britto

May 14, 2024 09h00 AM | Last Updated: May 14, 2024 05h09 PM

Rain period in the beginning of the year helped in the recovery of 0.9% in the output of soybeans reported in April - Picture: Licia Rubinstein

According to the April estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production, released today (14) by the IBGE, the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds should reach 299.6 million tonnes in 2024. It represents a production 5.0% lower than that obtained last year (315.4 million tonnes). Compared with the March´s estimate, it increased 0.4% or 1.2 million tonnes.

The output of soybeans, the major Brazilian commodity, grew 0.9% compared with what was forecast in March and it should reach 148.3 million tonnes. This amount is equivalent to a retraction of 2.4% in the comparison with the total amount produced last year.

The effects caused by the climate phenomenon El Niño, characterized by the excess of rainfall in the states of the South Region and the lack of regular rainfall, coupled with high temperatures in the center-north of Brazil, limited the productive potential of this legume in most producing Federation Units.

The positive highlight was Rio Grande do Sul, as pointed out by the survey´s manager. “When it comes to soybeans, more specifically in Rio Grande do Sul, there is a recovery in the beginning of the year after a period of drought that affected three harvests. It rained a lot in the 2023-2024 summer, causing an increase in the output of soybeans and corn - first crop. Therefore, the production of soybeans is recovering when we look at the estimate made in April, analyzing the first part of the year,” assesses Carlos Barradas, the manager of the LSPA.

When considering the two harvests, the production of corn fell 0.3% compared with what was estimated in the previous month and it should add up to 115.8 million tonnes in 2024, standing 11.7% below what was produced in 2023, a drop of 15 million tonnes.

The output of corn in Brazil dropped, mainly due to its price, which plummeted and discouraged the planting of the second crop. It is also important to highlight that corn - 1st crop faced unfavorable weather conditions in some states with much rainfall and heat. As already highlighted in other releases, one of the consequences is that some producers neglected this output and planted cotton, which also resulted in records in the production of cotton,” reminds the IBGE researcher.
On the other hand, the harvest of rice should grow 2.0% compared with what was produced last year. The estimate was 0.3% higher than that forecast in March, hitting 10.5 million tonnes. Altogether, soybeans, corn and rice accounts for 91.6% of the national output of grains.

“This growth is mainly due to the increase in the planted area, which rose 3.7%. Rice is planted during the summer harvest and it suffers a fierce competition from soybeans, the major Brazilian crop. As the prices of rice rose over the last months, the planted area also increased to the detriment of soybeans in some localities. It helps to explain the growth of 2.0% in the output of rice in relation to the previous year,” highlights Barradas.

The April´s estimate for the production of sorghum was of 4.0 million tonnes, an increase of 6.6% over what was forecast in March and a reduction of 6.8% in relation to that obtained in the 2023 harvest.

“An important characteristic of sorghum is that it is ‘rougher’, i.e., it needs less water. Therefore, whenever producers lose the planting window of corn - 2nd crop, they manage to plant sorghum, as this grain better supports the lack of humidity. The increase in relation to the March´s estimate might be attributed to some producers, in some regions, who have lost the planting window of corn - 2nd crop,” says the manager of the survey.
The estimate of the output of beans for 2024, considering the three harvests, grew 0.1% in relation to the previous month and it should reach 3.3 million tonnes, an increase of 11.1% in relation to 2023.

“It is interesting to notice that the output of beans easily addresses the Brazilian consumption. The second crop stood out as the most important in Brazil, staying at 1.6 million tonnes, with the state of Paraná accounting for nearly half of this total, with 49.8% of the production,” highlights the manager of the LSPA.

Mato Grosso remains leading the national production of grains

In the distribution of the production by Federation Unit, Mato Grosso led as the biggest national grain producer with a share of 28.0%, followed by Paraná (13.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.3%), Goiás (10.6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.3%) and Minas Gerais (5.6%). These states together accounted for 79.2% of the national result.

In regional terms, the Central-West (47.2%) leads this ranking, whereas the other regions show the following shares: South (28.9%), Southeast (9.2%), Northeast (8.7%) and North (6.0%).

The major absolute positive changes in the output estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Goiás (1,279,774 t) and Pará (998,575 t). The negative changes occurred in Paraná (-801,000 t), São Paulo (-442,380 t) and Minas Gerais (-96,291 t).

About the LSPA

Launched in November 1972 aiming at addressing the demand of users for monthly short-term statistical information, the LSPA provides estimates of planted area, harvested area, amount produced and average yield of products selected based on criteria of economic and social importance for Brazil. It not only follows up each crop investigated in the calendar year of reference, from the intention to plant up to the end of the harvest, yet also the forecast of the harvest in the coming year, for which the months of October, November and December are surveyed. Please access the data on Sidra. The next release of the LSPA, related to May, will be on June 13.

Concerning the public disaster in Rio Grande do Sul and the results of the LSPA for May, the IBGE states that it is required to wait for the evolution of the facts and check how the transmission of information to the IBGE will behave along the month to estimate potential impacts in terms of generation of results and of the publication of indicators relative to Rio Grande do Sul and its share in the national indicators. Take a look at the complete report here.

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