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Inflation preview

Driven by Food and Beverages, IPCA-15 reaches 0.36% in March

Section: Economic Statistics | Breno Siqueira

March 26, 2024 09h00 AM | Last Updated: March 26, 2024 06h01 PM

IPCA-15 decelerated in March, affected by increases in Food and Beverages - Photo: Helena Pontes/IBGE News Agency

The inflation preview stood at 0.36% in March, being 0.42 percentage points (p.p) below that of February, when it changed by 0.78%. The result was mostly influenced by Food and Beverages, with an increase of 0.91% and an impact of 0.19 p.p. on the overall index. The Extended National Consumer Price Index-15 (IPCA-15) was released today (26) by the IBGE.

The Special Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA-E), which is the cumulative IPCA-15 by quarter, stood at 1.46%, below the rate of 2.01% recorded in the same period of 2023. In the last 12 months, IPCA-15 changed by 4.14%, below the rate of 4.49% recorded in the immediately previous 12 months. In March 2023, IPCA-15 stood at 0.69%.

 

Five of the nine groups of products and services surveyed recorded increases in March. Besides Food and Beverages, Transportation (0.43% and 0.09 p.p.) and Health and Personal Care (0.61% and 0.08 p.p.) also stood out. The other groups stood between the rate of -0.58% of Household articles and the 0.19% of Housing.

In the group of Food and beverages (0.91%), food at home rose by 1.04% in March. This result was affected by the rise of onion (16.,64%), hen eggs (6.24%), fruits (5.81%) and long life milk (3.66%). Other items dropped: potato (-9.87%), carrot (-6.10%) and soybean oil (-3.19%). Food away from home (0.59%) accelerated from February (0.48%), due to the increase in meals (from 0.35% in February to 0.76% in March). Snacks (0.19%) recorded a change below tha in the preceding month (0.79%).

As for Transportation (0.43%), drops were observed in airfares (-9.08%), which accounted for the main negative impact (-0.07p.p.) this month. On the other hand, gasoline (2.39%) accounted for the main positive impact (0.12 p.p.). As for fuels (2.41%), prices of ethanol (4.27%) and gasoline (2.39%) rose (-0.24%), whereas vehicles gas (-2.07%) and diesel (-0.15%) dropped. Taxi rose by 0.61% due to the price adjustment of 8.31% in Belo Horizonte (6.04%), effected on February 8.

Also in Transportation, the change of intercity bus (0.71%) was influenced dy rise of prices in Rio de Janeiro (6.69%), in effect since Februay 24; and in Curitiba (6.41%), since February 5. As for subitem train (-1.00%), there was a decrease by 4.05% in fares in Rio de Janeiro (-2.20%), as of February 02.

In Health and personal care (0.61%), the result was influenced by health insurance plans (0.77%), pharmaceuticals (0.73%) and personal hygiene items (0.39%).

In Housing (0.19%), the following price adjustments were incorporated into piped gas (-0,35%) as of February 1: in Rio de Janeiro (-0.65%), an average drop of 1.30%; and in Curitiba (-1.20%), a drop of 2.29%.

Belém accounted for the highest increase, and Goiânia, for the lowest

Regarding regional indexes, all the areas surveyed recorded rises of prices in March. The biggest change was recorded by Belém (0.74%), due to rises of acai (18.87%) and gasoline (1.96%). Goiânia (0.14%) accounted for the lowest result, with price drops in used cars (3.19%) and meat (-1.02%).

More about the survey

To calculate the IPCA-15, the methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage. In order to measure IPCA-15, prices collected from January 16 to February 15, 2024 (reference) were compared with the ones in effect from December 15 2023 to January 15, 2024 (base).

The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, besides Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. Please take a look at the complete results on Sidra. The next release of IPCA-15, relative to March, will be on April 26.



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