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Inflation preview

Driven by Education, IPCA-15 reaches 0.78% in February

Section: Economic Statistics | Breno Siqueira

February 27, 2024 09h00 AM | Last Updated: February 28, 2024 02h11 AM

Due to price adjustments in the beginning of the school year, Education (5.07%) exerted impact on the PCA-15 of February - Photo: Tomaz Silva/Agência Brasil

Inflation preview stood at 0.78% in February, 0.47 percentage points (p.p) below that of January, when it changed by 0.31%. The result was mostly influenced by Education, with an increase of 5.07% and an impact of 0.30 p.p. on the overall index. The group was driven by regular courses, with an increase of 6.13%. The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) was released today (27) by the IBGE and refers to prices collected between January 16 to February 15, 2024.

In the year, the index had a cumulative increase of 1.09% and in the last 12 months, of 4.49%, above the 4.47% observed in the 12 previous month. In February 2023, the IPCA-15 was 0.76%. 

Eight of the nine groups of products and services surveyed recorded increases in February. The biggest change (5.07%) and the main impact (0.30 p.p.) came from Education, followed by Food and beverages, with an increase of 0.97% and an impact of 0.20 p.p. and Health and personal care (0.76% and 0.10 p.p.). The exception was Wearing apparel, which dropped in February, with a change of -0.39% and an impact of -0.02 p.p on the general index.

The main contribution to Education came from regular courses (6.13% and an impact of 0.27 p.p), due to price adjustments usually effected in the start of the school year. The main changes came from high school (8.58%), elementary education (8.23%), preschool education (8.14%) and daycare (5.91%) Technical courses (6.01%), Higher education (3.74%) and post-graduate courses (2.81%) also recorded increases.

In the group of Food and beverages (0.97%), food at home rose by 1.16% in February. This result was a consequence of the increases in carrots (36.21%), potatoes (22.58%), pinto beans (7.21%), rice (5.85%) and fruits (2,24%). Food away from home (0.48%) acelerated from the previous month (0.24%). Both meals (0.35%) and snacks (0.79%) recorded changes above those in the previous month (0.32% and 0.16%, respectively).

In Health and personal care (0.76%), the result was influenced by health insurance plans (0.77%), pharmaceuticals (0.61%) and personal hygiene items (0.70%). The rises in skincare products (1.67%) and perfumes (1.34%) stood out

In Housing (0.14%), the result of water and sewage rate (0.27%) was influenced by the average price adjustment of 4.21% in Belo Horizonte (3.06%), ain effect since January 01st. The following tariff adjustments were incorporated to piped gas (-0.90%): in Rio de Janeiro (-0.87%), average drops of 0.45% since January 1st and of 1.30% since February; in Curitiba (-4.81%), drops of 6.82% since January 1st and 2.29% since February 1st.

In the group Transportation (0,15%), there was a drop in airfares (-10.65% and -0.10 p.p.). As for fuels (0.77%), prices of vehicles gas (3.83%), gasoline (0.84%), and ethanol (0.32%) rose, whereas diesel (-0.32%) dropped. The sub-item taxi increased by 0.98% due adjustments, as of January 1st, of 4.21% in Rio de Janeiro (2.19%) and of 4.61% in Salvador (2.38%); and as of February 8th, of 8.31% in Belo Horizonte (2.15%).

Also in Transportation, the change in urban buses (2.14%) was influenced by the average increase of 16.67% in Belo Horizonte (6.71%), as of December 29th; and in São Paulo (7.34%), due to the application of free fares on Sundays and on some commemorative dates, starting on December 17th on. Also in São Paulo, there was an increase of 13.64% in the fares of train (6.84%) and subway (6.84%) as of January 1st. Due to the aforementioned rises, the integration of public transportation rose by 6.90% in this area. In Rio de Janeiro, there was a drop of 4.05% in train fares (-1.89%), as of February 02.

In the group Communication (1.67%), the result was influenced by the rises in subscription TV (4.02%), telephone, Internet and subscription TV combos (3.29%).

Goiânia recorded the main advance and Porto Alegre, the lowest drop

Regarding regional indexes, all the areas surveyed recorded rise of prices in February. The main change was that of Goiânia (1.07%), due to hikes in gasoline (7.28%) and regulares courses (4.56%). The lowest result was that of Porto Alegre (0.11%), which recorded a drop in prices of airfares (-16.59%) and gasoline (-1.59%).

More about the survey

To calculate the IPCA-15, the methodology is the same as the one used for the IPCA; the difference lies in the period of price collection and in the geographic coverage. In order to measure IPCA-15, prices collected from January 16 to February 15, 2024 (reference) were compared with the ones in effect from December 15, 2023 to January 15, 2024 (base).

The indicator refers to households with monthly income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and it encompasses the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador, Curitiba, besides Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. Please take a look at the complete results on Sidra. The next release of IPCA-15, relative to March, will be on March 26.

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