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Agricutural production

First prognosis previews a 2.8% reduction in the 2024 harvest compared to 2023

Section: Economic Statistics | Vinícius Britto e Umberlandia Cabral

November 09, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: November 13, 2023 01h35 PM

Drop in soybean and corn production negatively impacted the first forecast for the 2024 harvest - Photo: Jaelson Lucas/EN-PR

The Brazilian harvest of grains, cereals and legumes is expected to total 308.5 million tonnes in 2024, according to the first prognosis of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released today (09) by the IBGE. This production represents a decline of 2.8% compared to the 2023 Crop, or 8.8 million less tonnes.

The drop in production is mainly due to the reduction in the production of soybeans (-1.3% or -1,985,180 t) and corn (-5.6% or -7,331,066 t). In relation to the expected area, paddy rice (4.5%), beans (1.6%) and sorghum (0.2%) showed positive changes, and soybeans (-0.6%), corn (-0.4%), upland cotton seed (-0.8%) and wheat (-0.3%) had negative changes.

“The high level of rainfall in the South Region and the dry weather in the North are delaying the planting of the new crop in some Federation Units, which could delay the harvest and, consequently, the planting of the second crop, bringing greater climate insecurity to crops”, analyzes LSPA manager, Carlos Barradas.

“We have important reductions in forecasts for soybeans, which despite a drop of 1.3%, will still have a very good harvest, of 149.8 million tonnes, and for corn, of 124.3 million tonnes, falling 5.6% after having reached a record harvest in 2023”, highlights IBGE agriculture manager, Carlos Alfredo Guedes.

The only production growth forecast for 2024 is that of rice ( paddy rice). The estimate points to a production of 10.5 million tonnes, a growth of 2.5% with an increase of 4.5% in the area to be harvested.

“In the case of rice, as it is raining a lot in Rio Grande do Sul, the water reserves that will be used to irrigate this grain increase. Furthermore, prices are at relatively high levels. This production should be enough to supply the Brazilian domestic market”, points out Carlos Barradas.

In relation to the predicted area, paddy rice (4.5%), beans (1.6%) and sorghum (0.2%) showed positive changes, and negative changes for soybeans (-0.6% ), corn (-0.4%), upland cottonseed (-0.8%) and wheat (-0.3%).

Rio Grande do Sul should be the only state with an increase in harvest in 2024

Production in 2024 is expected to grow in Rio Grande do Sul (41.2%) and decline in Mato Grosso (-8.1%), in Paraná (-9.6%), in Goiás (-6.5%), in Mato Grosso do Sul (-7.4%), in Minas Gerais (-4.6%), in Santa Catarina (-7.8%), in Tocantins (-6.4%), in Rondônia (-2. 9%), in São Paulo (-3.2%), in Bahia (-2.9%), in Maranhão (-0.9%), in Piauí (-6.2%), in Pará (-10 .7%) and in Sergipe (-7.0%).

Estimate for 2023 crop is 20.6% higher than that of 2022

The survey also brings the October estimate for the 2023 crop of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, which reached 317.3 million tonnes, 20.6% higher than that obtained in 2022 (263.2 million tonnes), growth of 54.1 million tonnes. In relation to September, there was a decrease of 803.2 thousand tonnes (-0.3%). The area to be harvested was 78.0 million hectares, showing a growth of 6.5% compared to the area harvested in 2022, an increase of 4.8 million hectares. In relation to the previous month, the area to be harvested increased by 183,508 hectares (0.2%).

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which, together, represent 92.5% of the estimated production and account for 87.1% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were increases of 5.0% in the corn area (0.4% decline in corn 1st crop and 6.8% growth in corn 2nd crop), 6.3% in upland cottonseed, 23.7% in sorghum, 8.9% in wheat and 8.1% in soybeans, with declines of 7.9% in the rice area and 4.7% in the of the beans.

With regard to production, there were increases of 27.0% in soybeans, 12.5% in upland cottonseed, 47.2% in sorghum, 19.5% in corn, with increases of 10 .1% for corn 1st crop and 22.4% in the cron 2nd crop, while for paddy rice and wheat, there were decreases of 4.0% and 8.7%, respectively.

For soybeans, the production estimate was 151.8 million tonnes. As for corn, the estimate was 131.7 million tonnes (28.0 million tonnes of corn in the 1st crop and 103.7 million tonnes of corn in the 2nd crop). Rice production was estimated at 10.2 million tonnes; that of wheat at 9.2 million tonnes; that of upland cottonseed at 7.6 million tonnes; and sorghum, at 4.2 million tonnes.

Stock capacity grows 4.8% in the 1st half of 2023

The Survey of Stocks, also released today (9) by the IBGE, showed a 4.8% increase in storage capacity in the country in the first half of this year compared to the previous six months. As a whole, there are 201.4 million tonnes. Rio Grande do Sul is still the state with the highest number of storage establishments: 2,214. Mato Grosso continues to have the largest storage capacity, with 51.7 million tonnes.

Regarding the types of storage, the predominance is silos, which reached 105.2 million tonnes. This represents more than half (52.2%) of the total storage capacity. Compared to the last semester, there was an increase of 6.0%. Next come bulk warehouses, which reached 73.2 million storable capacity, an increase of 4.0% in the same comparison.

The survey also estimated the total stock of agricultural products at 76.1 million tonnes. Compared to the same semester last year, there was an increase in stocks of soybeans (33.0%), wheat (44.2%) and coffee (10.1%) and a reduction in corn (-11.5%) and rice (-5.1%). Soybean stocks have the largest volume among the products (46.9 million tonnes), followed by corn (17.1 million), rice (4.8 million), wheat (3.3 million) and coffee (0.8 million).

About the LSPA

Implemented in November 1972 with the purpose of meeting users' demands for monthly cyclical statistical information, the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production – LSPA provides estimates of planted area, harvested area, quantity produced and average yield of selected products based on criteria of economic and social importance for the country. It allows not only the monitoring of each crop investigated, from the planting intention phase until the end of the harvest, in the reference calendar year, but also the forecast of the following year's harvest, for which the survey is carried out in the months of October, November and December. The LSPA is available on SIDRA. The next LSPA result will be on December 7th.

About the Survey od Stocks

The survey, which covers the entire country, aims at providing statistical information on the volume and spatial distribution of stocks of basic storable agricultural products, in addition to the units where they are stored. The data collected by the Survey of Stocks is essential for public and private managers and is related to food security issues. The information is provided by the owner, trained employee or accountant of the surveyed establishment and is answered in person, by telephone, e-mail, through an online questionnaire or electronic spreadsheet. Results are released every semester. The data is available on SIDRA database.

res públicos e privados e têm relação com questões de segurança alimentar. As informações são fornecidas pelo proprietário, funcionário capacitado ou contador do estabelecimento pesquisado e são respondidas de forma presencial, por telefone, e-mail, por meio de questionário online ou planilha eletrônica. Os resultados são divulgados a cada semestre. Os dados estão disponíveis no SIDRA.

Keywords: Primeiro prognóstico prevê redução de 2, 8% na safra de 2024 frente a 2023

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