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Inflation hits 0.26% in September, driven by the rise of gasoline prices

Section: Economic Statistics | Caio Belandi

October 11, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: October 14, 2023 02h28 AM

Most relevant subitem to the IPCA, gasoline rose and impacted the September inflation rate - Photo: Helena Pontes/IBGE News Agency

Inflation in September stood at 0.26, and was 0.03 percentage points above the rate of August. The result was driven by the rise of 2.80% in gasoline, the subitem accounting for the main individual contribution (0.14 p.p) to th Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), released today by the IBGE. The cumulative index in the year increased by 3.50% and, in the last 12 months, it stood at 5.19%, above the rate of 4.61% registered in the 12 immediately previous months. The monthly change had been -0.29% in September 2022.

“Gasoline is the subitem accounting for the main contribution to the IPCA. This increase represents an important contribution to the result of September,” the manager of IPCA, André Almeida, explains. This way, among the nine groups of products surveyed, the grroup Transportation accounted for the main positive impact (0.29 p.p) and the biggest change (1.40%). In this group, a highlight is the subitem air fares, second main monthly change (13.47%) and the second biggest impact (0.07 p.p) on the total of IPCA, after a drop of 11.69% in August..

Also in Transportation, the item fuels, which encompasses the subitem gasoline, recorded an increase of 2.70%, with rise of prices of diesel (10.11%) and vehicle gas (0.66%) and drop of ethanol (-0.62%). The rise of intercity buses (0.42%) results from the price adjustment of 12.90% in Salvador (2.62%), in effect since August 10th.

Another important impact among the rises in Housing, with an increase of 0.47% in prices of September compared to those in August. Accounting for the main contribution to the group (0.04 p.p.), residential electricity rose by 0.99%. “Adjustments of fares were observed in three areas of coverage of the survey,” says Mr. Almeida, as he mentions the revisions in São Luís (10.74%), with price adjustment of 10.43% in effect since August 28th; in Belém (3.00%), with an increase of 9.40% in effect since August 15th; and in Vitória (0.65%), where the price adjustment of 3.20% went into effect on August 07th.

In the same group, the rise of water and sewage fares stood out (0.02%), with price adjustments in two areas surveyed by the IPCA: 5.02% in Brasília (0.45%), in effect since August 1st, and 1.37% in Vitória (0.13%), since August 1st.

On the other hand, there was a drop in piped gas (-0.10%), due to reduction in fares of two capitals: Curitiba (-0.42%), with a reduction of 2.23% since August 4th, and Rio de Janeiro (-0.14%), with an average reduction of 1.70% since August 1st.

As for decreases, the index of September was affected by Food and beverages. “That is the group with the highest weight on the IPCA and recorded deflation for the fourth month in a row, with a downward trend in food products, msinly for househod consumption,” the researcher explains. Deflation in the group Housing reached 0.71%, accounting for -0.15 p.p. of the monthly rate. Prices of food at home fell by 1.02%, mainly of potato (-10.41%), onion (-8.08%), hen eggs (-4.96%), long life milk (-4.06%) and meat (-2.10%). Prices of rice (3.20%) and tomato (2.89%) rose.

Food away from home rose by 0.12%, but decelerated from August, when it had recorded 0.22%. The group also recorded increases in meals (0.13%) and snack (0.09%), also less significant one than a month ago (0.18% and 0.30%, respectively).

Among the regional indexes, the only decrease was registered in (-0.11%), due to the deflation in residential electricity (-2.97%). The main changes were those of São Luís (0.50%), as a result of residential electricity price rise (10.74%) and rice (4.09%).

INPC of September stood at 0.11%

The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) was also released today. It rose 0.11% in September, being below the result of August (0.20%). The cumulative index in the year stood at 2.91% and, in the last 12 months, at 4.51%, above the rate of 4.06% registered in the 12 immediately previous months. The rate was -0.32% in September 2022.

Food products dropped 0.74% in August, after a drop of 0.91% in August. The prices of non-food produtcs rose by 0.38%, less than in the previous month, when the increase amounted to 0.56%.

As for regional indexes, five areas recorded drops in September. The lowest change was recorded by Goiânia (-0.28%), due to a drop of 2.97% in residential electricity. Rio Branco recorded the main change (0.53%), as a result of the rise of gasoline (3.60%).

More about the surveys

The IPCA encompasses households with earnings between 1 and 40 minimum wages, whereas the INPC, households with earnings between 1 and 5 minimum wages, living in the Metropolitan Areas of Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Vitória, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, as well as in the Federal District and in the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís and Aracaju. Please access the data at  Sidra. The next result of IPCA, relative to September, will be released on November 10th.

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