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Inflation preview

IPCA-15 stays at 0.35% in September, influenced by gasoline rise

Section: Economic Statistics | Carmen Nery

September 26, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: September 26, 2023 04h22 PM

Gasolina rose 5.18%, and was the biggest individual impact (0.25 pp) in the September index - Photo: Helena Pontes/IBGE News Agency

The inflation preview was 0.35% in September, 0.07 percentage points (pp) above the rate recorded in August (0.28%). The biggest change (2.02%) and the biggest impact (0.41 pp) came from Transportation, mainly due to the 5.18% increase in gasoline. The IPCA-E, which is the IPCA-15 accumulated in the quarter (July, August and September), stood at 0.56%, above the rate of -0.97% recorded in the same period of 2022.

In the year, the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15, released today (26) by the IBGE, accumulates an increase of 3.74% and, in 12 months, of 5.00%, above the 4.24% recorded in the 12 preceding months. In September 2022, the rate was -0.37%.

Six of the nine groups of products and services surveyed increased in September. The biggest change (2.02%) and the biggest impact (0.41 p.p.) came from Transport. The Housing group (0.30% and 0.05 p.p.) slowed down in relation to the previous month (1.08%). On the decline side, the highlight was Food and beverages (-0.77%), which contributed with -0.16 p.p.

In the Transportation group, gasoline rose 5.18% and was the sub-item with the biggest individual impact on the month's index (0.25 pp). As for other fuels (4.85%), diesel fuel (17.93%) and vehicle gas (0.05%) increased, while ethanol (-1.41%) recorded a drop in prices. After a decline of 11.36% in August, there was an increase of 13.29% in air tickets (13.29%) in September.

In Transportation, the increase in taxi fares (0.19%) is due to the 20.19% increase in fares from July 24th in Fortaleza (5.54%). In intercity buses (1.05%), there was an increase of 12.90% in Salvador (8.08%), as of August 10th and of 6.00% in Porto Alegre (1.09%), as of from August 1st.

Housing records increases in energy, water and sewage and drops in gas prices

In the Housing group (0.30%), the highlight is the increase in residential electricity (0.66%), influenced by the 9.40% rise in Belém (8.81%), as of August 15th. The increase in the water and sewage fee (0.12%) is due to the 5.02% increase in Brasília (2.76%), as of August 1st. In turn, the drop in piped gas (-0.46%) is due to tariff reductions in two coverage areas: in Curitiba (-1.47%), a reduction of 2.23%, as of August 4; and in Rio de Janeiro (-0.84%), an average reduction of 1.70%, as of August 1st.

In Health and personal care (0.17%), the highlight was the increase in the health plan item (0.71%), resulting from increases authorized by the National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS) for plans signed before Law no. 9,656/98, with retroactive effect from July. Therefore, in September's IPCA-15, the monthly fractions of the old plans for the months of July, August and September were appropriated.

Drop in Food and beverages was influenced by deflation of food at home

The fall in the Food and beverages group (-0.77%) was again influenced by deflation in prices of food at home (-1.25%), as in the previous three months. Of note are the declines in potatoes (-10.51%), onions (-9.51%), carioca beans (-8.13%), long-life milk (-3.45%) , meat (-2.73%) and chicken pieces (-1.99%). Among the highs, rice (2.45%) and fruits (0.40%) rose in price, especially lemons (32.20%) and bananas (4.36% ).

Eating away from home (0.46%) accelerated in relation to the previous month's result (0.22%). Increases were recorded in snacks (0.74%) and meals (0.35%). In August, the changes in these sub-items were 0.14% and 0.35%, respectively.

In the regional scenario, only Salvador showed negative change in August

As for regional indices, only one area showed a negative change in September. The smallest change occurred in Salvador (-0.03%), whose result was influenced by the drop in the prices of onions (-16.60%) and meat (-3.95%). The biggest change was recorded in Belém (1.00%), due to the increase in residential electricity (8.81%) and gasoline (6.51%).

More about the survey

In order to calculate the IPCA-15, the same methodology for the IPCA is used, the difference is in the price collection period and geographic coverage. Prices were collected from August 15th to September 14th (reference) and compared with those in force from July 14th to August 14th.

The indicator refers to families with an income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and covers the Metropolitan Areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, in addition to Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia. See the full results on Sidra database. The next release of the IPCA-15, for October, will be on October 26th.

Keywords: IPCA-15 fica em 0, 35% em setembro, influenciado pela alta da gasolina

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