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Agricultural production

May estimate forecasts record harvest of 305.4 million tonnes in 2023

Section: Economic Statistics | Carmen Nery e Carlos Alberto

June 13, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: June 14, 2023 11h38 AM

Having risen 24%, soybeans recover losses of 2022 and should hit an output record in 2023, reaching 148.2 million tonnes - Picture: Gilson Abreu/AEN-PR

Released today (13) by the IBGE, the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production unveils that the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds should register a new record in 2023, adding up to 305.4 million tonnes. It is 16.1%, or 42.2 million tonnes, bigger than the harvest obtained in 2022. Compared with April, the estimate pointed out a rise of 1.1%, an increase of 3.3 million tonnes. A record is expected in the output of soybeans, corn and wheat.

The area to be harvested should be 76.6 million hectares, representing an increase of 4.6% against the area harvested in 2022, an increase of 3.4 million hectares. In relation to April, the area to be harvested increased by 237,739 hectares (0.3%).

The major highlights of the 2023 harvest are the output estimates of soybeans, corn and wheat, all of them establishing news records. In the case of soybeans, the production should reach 148.2 million tonnes, an increase of 24.0% compared with the amount obtained in 2022. Corn has an output estimated at 122.8 million tonnes, a value 11.5% higher than in 2022. According to Carlos Barradas, manager of the LSPA, the good performance of crops is due to the increase in the planting areas and, mainly, to a more favorable rainfall in 2023 when compared with 2022. Therefore, the output of corn shows a new record in the IBGE´s time series.

The output of wheat, which should reach 10.6 million tonnes, increased 7.3% in relation to April and 5.5% in relation to 2022, when Brazil had already harvested the biggest harvest in history.

“High prices of commodities caused producers to increase the planting area of these products. In addition, investments in crops increased and, as the weather is being very beneficial in 2023 when compared with 2022, the performance of crops increased a lot. In the 2023 harvest, only Rio Grande do Sul had weather problems. All the other Federation Units had a favorable weather, which explains the production record of the Brazilian harvest of grains,” analyzes Barradas.

He explains that soybeans, the major product of the Brazilian agriculture, manage to become the priority for producers in the summer harvest, which is planted in September, in the rain season, and harvested in January and February. The second harvest is planted after harvesting the summer harvest and its harvesting is from June onwards. “Producers are reducing the area of other cereals, like rice, to plant soybeans. As prices were high, investments increased as well. It is worth reminding that the weather was very unfavorable to soybeans in 2022. The production of rice and beans should be sufficient to supply the domestic market,” completes Barradas.

Carlos Alfredo Guedes, manager of Agriculture, notices that soybeans closed last year with a drop of 11.4% in relation to 2021, due to unfavorable weather conditions in the South Region and in Mato Grosso do Sul. “In 2023, the growth percentages of soybeans in these places are very high, pointing out to the recovery of the harvest. Even with weather problems remaining in 2023 in Rio Grande do Sul, the harvest is bigger than in 2022, a year in which droughts were very harsh,” analyzes Guedes.

He highlights that the increase in the output has caused the prices to drop at the global level. In the case of corn and soybeans, it impacts on the reduction of costs for animal food, positively affecting livestock.

“The drop in the prices is also related to the currency rate, to the drop of the dollar an to the increase in the American harvest of soybeans. The increase in the global supply with the growth in the production of the Brazilian and American harvests are causing the prices to reduce,” completes the manager of Agriculture.

On the other hand, wheat benefits from the war between Russia and Ukraine, major producers and exporters. A wheat shortage in the market caused the prices to rise and national products to increase the planting area of wheat in Brazil.

The favorable weather also benefited the production of coffee, which added up to 3.3 million tonnes, a growth of 5.9% over 2022. “This year would be of negative biennial bearings, with a smaller harvest. Due to the large amount of rainfall in Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, the output of coffea arabica is growing, causing a reversion in the biennial bearings,” complements Barradas.

The output estimate of cereals, legumes and oilseeds recorded a positive annual change in five Major Regions: South (26.9%), Central-West (15.8%), Southeast (4.3%), North (13.5%) and Northeast (3.3%).  As for the monthly change, the Northeast Region (0.5%), the Central-West Region (2.9%) and the North Region (1.5%) recorded increases. The Southeast Region remained stable (0.0%), whereas the South Region declined (-1.5%).

In relation to April, the estimates for the output of wheat (7.3% or 723 714 t), oat (6.3% or 70 853 t), sorghum (5.9% or 207 797 t), corn - 2nd crop (3.2% or 2 968 400 t), rice (2.1% or 206 037 t), beans - 3rd crop (1.6% or 10 110 t), barley (0.7% or 3 328 t), coffea arabica (0.4% or 8 820 t), beans - 1st crop (0.3% or 3 585 t) and coffea canephora (0.2% or 1 551 t) rose. Conversely, the estimates for the output of tomatoes (-4.5% or -177 003 t), beans - 2nd crop (-3.1% or -42 397 t), cassava (-1.0% or -182 909 t), soybeans (-0.6% or -867 990 t) and corn - 1st crop (-0.1% or -21 813 t) declined.

With a share of 31.1%, Mato Grosso leads national output of grains

Mato Grosso leads the national production of grains with a share of 31.1%, followed by Paraná (15.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (9.7%), Goiás (9.6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.6%) and Minas Gerais (5.9%). These states together accounted for 80.2% of the national estimate. As for participation of the Brazilian Major Regions, the distribution is as follows: Central-West (49.6%), South (27.3%), Southeast (9.5%), Northeast (8.6%) and North (5.0%).

The major positive changes in the output estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Mato Grosso (2,372,277 t), Mato Grosso do Sul (1,535,404 t), Goiás (359,108 t), Rondônia (238,722 t), Maranhão (40,869 t), Ceará (39,067 t), Alagoas (33,887 t), Rio Grande do Norte (11,580 t) and Acre (3,743 t). The negative changes occurred in Rio Grande do Sul (-1,021,166 t),  Paraná (-262,700 t), Federal District (-56,250 t), Amapá (-19,144 t) and Minas Gerais (-5,340 t).

The next release of the LSPA will be on July 13.

Stock capacity grows 1.8% in the second semester of 2022

Also released today (13) by the IBGE, the Survey of Stocks showed a rise of 1.8% in the available storage capacity in Brazil in the second semester of 2022 against the previous semester, reaching 192.2 million tonnes.

Mato Grosso keeps the biggest storage capacity in Brazil, with 47.5 million tonnes. Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná follow, with 35.2 and 33.2 million tonnes of storage capacity, respectively.

As for the types of storage, the survey showed that the silos still prevail, having hit 99.2 million tonnes (51.6%) of the total storage capacity. They are followed by automated and bulk warehouses, which hit 70.3 million tonnes of storage capacity, and conventional, temporary and inflatable warehouses, with 22.6 million tonnes.

Concerning the stock of the five major agricultural products existing in the storage facilities on December 31, 2022, the stock of corn represented the highest volume (18.1 million tonnes), followed by the stock of soybeans (8.1 million), wheat (7.4 million), rice (2.2 million) and coffee (0.9 million). Those products comprise 94.0% of the total volume stocked among the products monitored by this survey, being the remaining 6.0% comprised by cotton, black beans, colored beans and other grains and seeds.

On December 31, 2022, corn, soybeans and wheat increased their stocks when compared with December 31, 2021, whereas rice and coffee dropped.

The next Survey of Stocks will be released on November 9.

More about the LSPA

Launched in November 1972 aiming at addressing the demand of users for monthly short-term statistical information, the LSPA provides estimates of planted area, harvested area, amount produced and average yield of products selected based on criteria of economic and social importance for Brazil. It not only follows up each crop investigated in the calendar year of reference, from the intention to plant up to the end of the harvest, yet also the forecast of the harvest in the coming year, for which the months of October, November and December are surveyed. Please access the data on Sidra.

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