Inflation preview is 0.55% in January
January 24, 2023 09h00 AM | Last Updated: January 24, 2023 02h17 PM
Inflation preview in January rose 0.55%, after registering 0.52% in December. The Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released today (24) by the IBGE, unveils that the biggest impacts came from Health and personal care (1.10%) and Food and beverages (0.55%), with 0.14 p.p. and 0.12 p.p., respectively.
All the nine groups of products and services surveyed recorded price rises in January. The group of Communication stood out as the highest change (2.36% and 0.11 p.p.), whereas the others stood between the rate of 0.17% in Transportation and Housing and 0.57% in Personal expenses. In the last 12 months, the IPCA-15 changed 5.87%, below the rate of 5.90% recorded in the immediately previous 12 months. The index stayed at 0.58% in January 2022.
The group of Health and personal care accelerated between December (0.40%) and January (1.10%), mainly influenced by the rise in the prices of personal hygiene items (1.88%), which had risen 0.04% in December. Toiletries (4.24%) and skincare products (3.85%) reported the most significant rises. Health insurance plans (1.21%) repeated the same change as in the previous month, reflecting the incorporation of the monthly fraction of the adjustments of new and old plans for the 2022-2023 cycle.
The change in Food and beverages (0.55%) stood below that registered in December (0.69%). The rises in potatoes (15.99%), tomatoes (5.96%), rice (3.36%) and fruits (1.74%) caused an increase of 0.61% in the prices of food for consumption at home. On the other hand, the most significant drops were in onions (-15.21%) and long-life milk (-2.04%). Food away from home (0.39%) stood close to that in the previous month (0.45%), in which snacks rose 0.80% and meals, 0.14%.
In the group of Communication (2.36%), the result was influenced by the rises in pay TV (11.78%), telephone, Internet and pay TV combo (3.24%), access to Internet (2.11%) and telephone devices (1.78%). Telephone, Internet and pay TV combo was the sub-item that exerted the biggest impact (0.05 p.p.) on the month´s index.
Transportation decelerated between December (0.85%) and January (0.17%). The major reason was the drop in the prices of fuels (-0.58%). Except for the rise in ethanol (0.51%), the prices of diesel fuel (-3.08%), gasoline (-0.59%) and vehicular gas (-0.40%) dropped. It is worth highlighting the rise in the sub-item car licensing (1.61%), which incorporated for the first time the monthly share relative to the IPVA (vehicle tax) of 2023.
In the group of Housing (0.17%), the prices of bottled gas (-1.32%) and residential electricity (-0.16%) dropped. The changes in the areas surveyed stayed between -4.82% in Rio de Janeiro, which recorded a reduction of 5.99% in the residential fare in one of the concessionaires surveyed, in force since December 15, and 3.96% in Salvador, where the ICMS returned to the level of 27% since January 1st. In addition, the contribution for funding the service of street lighting (COSIP) was adjusted on January 1st in São Paulo (0.41%), Curitiba (0.06%) and Brasília (-0.53%).
Still in Housing, the rise in piped gas (7.09%) also stood out, as a consequence of the adjustments of 9% in the fare in Rio de Janeiro (3.64%), in force since January 1st, and of 10.90% in São Paulo (10.90%), in force since December 10. The latter was not included in the December´s IPCA-15 and, thus, it was fully incorporated into the January´s index. Water and sewage fees (0.75%) is due to the adjustments of 14.62% in Belo Horizonte (5.85%) and of 9.51% in Brasília (3.80%), both of them since January 1st, and of 10.15% in Belém (4.32%), since November 28.
Concerning the regional indexes, all the areas surveyed recorded a positive change in January. The highest change was reported in Belo Horizonte (0.92%), influenced by the rises in the items of personal hygiene (2.65%), water and sewage fees (5.85%) and potatoes (23.18%). The lowest figure, in turn, occurred in Rio de Janeiro (0.23%), influenced by the drops of 4.82% in electricity and of 20.18% in onions.
More about the survey
The IPCA-15 differs from the IPCA, the official inflation in Brazil, only in the period of data collection and geographic coverage. In order to measure the IPCA-15, prices collected from December 14, 2022 to January 12, 2023 (reference) were compared with the ones in effect from November 15 to December 13, 2022 (base).
The target population of the IPCA-15 encompasses households with earnings between 1 and 40 minimum wages, whatever the source, living in the following metropolitan areas: Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, as well as the Federal District and the municipality of Goiânia. Please take a look at the complete results on Sidra.