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Inflation preview stands at -0.73% in August, lowest rate since the start of the time series, in 1991

Section: Economic Statistics | Daniel Pereira

August 24, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: August 25, 2022 02h11 AM

#PraCegoVer A foto mostra o detalhe de uma bomba de gasolina.
With a drop of 16.80%, gasoline influenced the IPCA-15 rate of -0.73% - Photo: Licia Rubinstein/IBGE News Agency

Driven by the fall of fuel prices, mainly of gasoline and ethanol, and of electricity, the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), official inflation preview, stood at -0.73% in August, after a change of 0.13% in July. That is the lowest rate registered since the beginning of the time series, in November 1991. Despite the record decrease, the prices of Food and beverages (1.12%) and Health and personal care (0.81%) are still on an upward trend.

The cumulative increase in the year amounted to 5.02% and, in the last 12 months, to 9.60%, below the rate of 11.39% recorded in the 12 immediately previous months. In August 2021, the rate was 0.89%. The data were released today (24) by the IBGE.

Three of the nine groups of products and services surveyed registered positive changes. The drop of gasoline (-16.80%) influenced the result of transportation, which recorded the biggest negative change (-5.24%) and the main negative impact, of -1.15 percentage points (p.p.). The result of the group of Food and beverages (1.16%) was mainly influenced by the rise of prices of long-life milk (14.21%), the main individual impact on the month’s index (0.14 p.p.).

The fall of fuel prices (-15.33%) resulted not only from the drop of gasoline, but also of ethanol (-10.78%), vehicle gas (-5.40%) and diesel (-0.56%). In the group transportation, another subitem with significant negative change was airfares (-12.22%), after having risen for four months in a row. In terms of increases: provately-owned vehicles (0.83%) remained on an upward trend: motorcycles (0.61%), new cars (0.30%) and used cars (0.17%).

The negative change of housing (-0.37%) is related to the drop of residential electricity (-3.29%), due to the reduction, in several states, of the ICMS share charged for this service. In addition to that, the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) approved the Extraordinary Fare Revisions of 10 distributors spread around the country, thus reducing fares from July 13 on. In the areas investigated by the IPCA, the changes ranged from -16.18% in Recife- where the ICMS was reduced from 25% to 18% and there was interruption of tax charge on transmission and distribution services - up to 2.96% in São Paulo, where there was a price adjustment of 10.43% in the rates of one of the concessionaries surveyed, in effect since July 4th.

Communication (-0.30%) also fell The highlight was fixed telephone services and mobile telephony, the prices of which fell 2.29% and 1.04% in August, respectively. Telephone appliances recorded an increase of 0.57%, after a decrease of 0.52% in July. 

Opposite to the decreases, food products (1.12%) remained on an upward trend. The result was influenced by the rise of long life milk, which has a cumulative increase of 79.79% in the year. Other highlights in the group were fruits (2.99%), which had also risen in July (4..03%), cheese (4.18%) and chicken pieces (308%). As a result, food at home changed 1.24% in July.

Food away from home (0.80%) also rose in August, with deceleration from the previous month (1.27%). Both snacks (0.97%) and meals (0.72%) reported changes above those registered in July(of 2.18% and 0.92%, respectively).

The positive change of Health and personal care (0.81%), influenced by health insurance (1.22%), corresponds to the monthly share of the readjustment of 15.50% authorized by the National Regulatory Agency for Private Health Insurance and Plans (ANS) on May 26 for new healthcare plans. Besides, personal hygiene items accelerated from 0.67% in July to 1.03% in August.

The group education (0.61%) also rose. Regular courses rose 0.52% mainly due to the subitems daycare center (1.47%), primary education (0.71%) and higher education (0.44%). Miscellaneous courses recorded an increase of 1.18%, being influenced by language courses (2.15%) and preparatory courses (2.04%). Personal expenses (0.81%) recorded changes close to that a month ago (0.79%).

IPCA-15 recorded decrease in all the areas surveyed

The survey also shows that all the eleven areas surveyed recorded negative changes in August. The smallest change was that of Belo Horizonte (-1.58%), mainly because of gasoline (-20.50%) and electricity (-13.11%). The biggest change, in turn, was that of São Paulo (-0.11%), whose result was influenced by increases of 11.31% in long life milk and of 2.96% of electricity.

More about the IPCA-15

The National System of Consumer Price Indexes – SNIPC continuously and systematically produces consumer price indexes. Released on the Internet since May 2000, the IPCA-15 differs from the IPCA only in the data collection period, which encompasses, in general, day 16 of the previous month and day 15 of the reference month, as well as in the geographic coverage.

The IPCA-15 refers to households with monthly income from 1 to 40 minimum wages, whatever the source, living in 11 urban areas of the regions covered by the SNIPC, which encompasses the metropolitan areas of Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, as well as the Federal District and the municipality of Goiânia.

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