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Agricutural production

July estimate points to record crop of 263.4 million metric tons in 2022

Section: Economic Statistics | Carmen Nery

August 11, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: August 11, 2022 07h25 PM

July estimate points to a record crop of 263.4 million metric tons in 2022 - Photo: Luiz Henrique Magnante/Embrapa

The Brazilian harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds should reach a record 263.4 million metric tons, according to the July estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released today (Aug 11) by the IBGE. This value is 4.0% higher (or 10.2 million metric tons) than the harvest obtained in 2021 (253.2 million metric tons) and 0.8% higher (2.0 million metric tons) than the June estimate.

“We had a record crop growing 0.8%, or 2 million metric tons over last month, and 4.0% over the amount produced in 2021, with 10.2 million metric tons more. This increase is due to the increase of the planting and investment of producers expanding the area for grain cultures by 6.4% for 73 million hectares, or 4.4 million hectares more over 2021 (68.6 million hectares). Producers planted more because international prices are high, especially wheat prices, due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, great producers and exporters of wheat”, highlights the survey manager, Carlos Barradas.

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three major products of the survey. Altogether, they represent 91.4% of the production estimate and account for 87.1% of the area to be harvested.

In relation to the previous year, the area for corn increased 9.7% (increase of 7.7% in the first crop and of 10.4% in the second crop), the area for upland cottonseed increased 18.1%, the area for soybeans, 4.6% and the area for wheat, 8.6%, while the area for rice declined 2.7%.

Soybeans, as the main Brazilian commodity, presented a high of 0.7% over the previous month, as the second product responsible for the growth of 2 million metric tons, with 814 million metric tons in July, after wheat achieved 820 thousand metric tons. According to Mr. Barradas, there were important reviews in states as Mato Grosso, major producer  with 38 million metric tons, which increased the average yield by 1.5% compared to June. Rio Grande do SUl also increased the yield and estimate by 1.8% in relation to the previous month. As a result, soybeans should reach a national output of 118.8 million metric tons against the 118.0 million in June.

However, this volume represents a retraction of 12.0% compared to the one obtained in the previous year, with a decline of 15.9% in the average yield. Mr. Barradas explains that although there was increase in the area of soybean cultivation, extended droughts in the development phase of the plant in some Federation Units, especially those in the center-south of the country, was responsible for this annual decrease.

The harvested area was estimated at 40.8 million hectares, a 4.6% in the comparison with 2021, and of 0.2% in relation to the previous month. The participation of soybean in the total volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2022 was of 45.1% and still remains as the most relevant grain in the group.

“We expected a much bigger production, but there was a 12% decrease in relation to 2021 due to unfavorable weather conditions, especially in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul. Corn is also with higher prices, making producers extend the planting. There are two crops: the summer crop, planted in September or October and harvested from December to January and the second crop, whose planting goes from February to April. But nowadays the second crop is much bigger than the summer crop. The weather has helped, differently from what happened last year, when there were weather problems in the second crop. That explains the high growth of corn production in the second crop in relation to last year”, clarifies the survey manager.

Another aspect that he highlights is that the production of rice (10.6 million metric tons) and beans (3.1 million metric tons) should meet the internal demand of the country in 2022. Brazil is not an importer of the two products, but there were times when importation was necessary.

“As for coffee, Brazil should produce 3.2 million metric tons, taking arabica and canephora together, which is equivalent to 53.2 million 60 kg bags, a growth of 0.8% over the previous month, and increase of 8.6% in relation to 2021. The greater share is exported. Of the arabica species, we will produce 2.1 million metric tons or 35.1 million 60 kg sacks, an increase of 9.6%. As Coffea arabica has a biannual nature, it produces a lot every other year. We are in a year of positive biannuality, but a bigger production was expected. However, unfavorable weather conditions, as frosts and lack of rainfalls, were present in some producing areas last year. As to Coffea canephora, we will produce 1.1 million metric tons or 18.1 million 60 kg sacks, an increase of 6.8% in relation to 2022”, Mr. Barradas says.

Four Major Regions record increase in production estimates

In July, the production estimate for cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented an increase in comparison with 2021 in four areas. Central-West (11.9%), Southeast (13.0%), North (8.7%) and Northeast (10.6%). Just the South Region had a negative estimate (-13.5%). As to the monthly change, increase was seen in the Central-West Region (1.1%), North (3.0%) and South (0.6%) and decline, in Northeast (-0.3%) and the Southeast (-0.2%).

Among the Federation Units, Mato Grosso led as the biggest national producer of grain (30.6%), followed by Paraná (13,4%), Goiás (10.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (9.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.1%) and Minas Gerais (6.7%), which, together, represented 79.0% of the national overall. In relation to the participation of the Brazilian regions, the distribution was as follows: Central-West (49.5%), South (25.2%), Southeast (10.5%), Northeast (9.7%) and North (5.1%).

“The pandemic made prices rise because at home people consumed more; besides, corn and soybeans are used in the production of animal protein. Based on that, producers planted more because their profitability is bigger. In the last few years, due to the increase of the planted area and productivity, the Brazilian agriculture has been producing “records over records”, claims the survey manager.

About the LSPA

Launched in November 1972 aiming at addressing the demand of users for monthly short-term statistical information, the LSPA provides estimates of planted area, harvested area, amount produced and average yield of products selected based on criteria of economic and social importance for Brazil. It not only follows up each crop investigated in the calendar year of reference, from the intention to plant up to the end of the harvest, yet also the forecast of the harvest in the coming year, for which the months of October, November and December are surveyed. Please access the data on Sidra.

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