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Inflation preview decelerates to 0.13% in July, the lowest monthly change since 2020

Section: Economic Statistics | Carmen Nery

July 26, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: July 26, 2022 04h35 PM

#PraCegoVer A foto mostra uma prateleira de supermercado lotada de caixas de leite longa vida e um empregado do mercado arrumando as caixas.
Greatest individual impact came from long-life milk, which rose 22.27% - Photo: Federal Senate

As the preview of the official inflation, the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) decelerated to 0.13% in July, 0.56 percentage points (p.p.) below the rate registered in June (0.69%). It is the lowest monthly change of the IPCA since June 2020 (0.02%).

The cumulative change in the year was 5.79% and, in the last 12 months, 11.39%, below the rate of 12.04% recorded in the 12 immediately previous months. The rate had been 0.72% in July 2021. The data were released today (26) by the IBGE.

Six out of nine groups of products and services surveyed registered positive changes.  The greatest individual impact came from long-life milk (22.27%), influencing the rise in the group of food and beverages (1.16%), which exerted the greatest impact (0.25 p.p.) and accelerated in relation to June (0.25%). The highest change came from Wearing apparel (1.39%), which accumulates a rise of 11.01% in the year.

On the dropping side, the groups of Transportation (-1.08%) and Housing (-0.78%) stand out by jointly contributing with -0.36 p.p. to the month´s index. Complementary Law no. 194/22 was sanctioned in the end of June, reducing the ICMS rates on fuels, electricity and communications. The federal law was later incorporated by the state legislations, contributing to the retreat in the prices of these groups.

A significant drop was recorded in the group of transportation, mainly due to the reduction of 5.01% in the prices of gasoline and of 8.16% in the prices of ethanol. On the electricity side, the ICMS was reduced in several regions. The ICMS fell from 29% to 17% in Goiânia, leading the result of electricity in the area to a drop of 12.02%. In Curitiba (PR) and Porto Alegre (RS), the retreat in the monthly changes were also higher than 10%.



In the case of food products, the movement was in the other direction, accelerating from 0.25% to 1.16% due to the increases in long-life milk (22.27%) and derivatives like cream cheese (4.74%), butter (4.25%) and cheese (3.22%). Having dropped in June (-2.61%), fruits also stood out (4.03%), as well as carioca beans (4.25%) and French bread (1.47%). As a result, food at home changed 1.12% in July.

Having risen 1.27% in July against 0.74% in the previous month, food away from home accelerated. Both snacks (2.18%) and meals (0.92%) reported changes above those registered in June (of 1.10% and 0.70%, respectively).

In Wearing apparel (1.39%), the highlight was men’s wearing apparel, whose prices increased 1.97% in July. In addition, rises above 1% were also recorded in the prices of footwear and accessories (1.57%) and women’s wearing apparel (1.32%).

More about the IPCA-15

The National System of Consumer Price Indexes – SNIPC continuously and systematically produces consumer price indexes. Released on the Internet since May 2000, the IPCA-15 differs from the IPCA only in the data collection period, which encompasses, in general, day 16 of the previous month and day 15 of the reference month, as well as in the geographic coverage.

The IPCA-15 refers to households with monthly income from 1 to 40 minimum wages, whatever the source, living in 11 urban areas of the regions covered by the SNIPC, which encompasses the metropolitan areas of Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, as well as the Federal District and the municipality of Goiânia.

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