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Agricultural production

Crop estimate declines in February, but record crop forecast is confirmed

Section: Economic Statistics | Alerrandre Barros

March 10, 2022 09h00 AM | Last Updated: March 11, 2022 06h25 PM

Corn crop is expected to grow 23.9% compared to 2021 - Photo: Helena Pontes/IBGE News Agency

The national grain crop should reach 261.6 million metric tons in 2022, according to the February estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released today (March 10) by the IBGE. This corresponds to a decrease of -3.8% compared to the previous month's estimate. Even so, the crop should grow 3.3% compared to 2021 (253.2 million metric tons) and reach a new record in the time series.

“Such estimate decline is due to the weather problems faces by the states of the South Region, as Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, notably the lack of rainfalls in the 1st crop”, explains survey manager Carlos Barradas. 

Soybean production, the main commodity in Brazil, should account for 123.0 million metric tons, a drop of 6.7% over January estimate and of 8.8% in comparison with the last year. “Even with high investments in soybean production, the adverse effects caused by droughts has affected drastically the performance of the summer crops in the states of the center-south of the country”, observes Mr. Barradas.

The output estimate of corn should reach 108.7 million metric tons, a decrease of 1.1% against the previous month and a growth of 23.9% against 2021. “After a significant decrease in production in 2021, an effect of the delay in planting of the 2nd crop and the lack of rain in the main producing states, a year within normal occurrences is expected, and that means the recovery of crops, and it must reach a new national level”, says the LSPA manager.  

The estimate for rice production was of 10.7 million metric tons, declines of 3.2% over the previous month and of 7.9% over the previous year. According to Mr. Barradas, the severe droughts in the South Region has affected upland crops and hindered a great part of the others, being the main responsible for the drop. “But both the production of rice as that of beans must meet the demands of the domestic market”, he observes. 

Rice, corn and soybeans represent 92.7% of the estimated output and account for 87.7% of the area to be harvested in 2022.  

In February, the highlights were also the positive changes in the following production estimates in relation to the estimate of January: corn 2nd crop (0.50%), sorghum (2.3%) and cacao (2.3%). On the other hand, declines are expected in the production of corn 1st crop (-5.9%), potatoes - 1st crop (-3.5%), grapes (-1.4%) and potatoes - 2nd crop (-1.0%). 

The Northeast (1.4%) and North (3.4%) had increase in its estimates over January. They should produce 24.7 million metric tons and 12.4 million metric tons, respectively. The greatest drop was recorded in the South (13.7%), which should add up to 69.2 million metric tons. The Southeast (26.7 million metric tons) and the Central-West (128.4 million metric tons) did not have change in their production estimates over the previous month. 

About the LSPA 

Launched in November 1972 aiming at addressing the demand of users for monthly short-term statistical information, the LSPA provides estimates of planted area, harvested area, amount produced and average yield of products selected based on criteria of economic and social importance for Brazil. It not only follows up each crop investigated in the calendar year of reference, from the intention to plant up to the end of the harvest, yet also the forecast of the harvest in the coming year, for which the months of October, November and December are surveyed. Please, access data on Sidra.

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