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Agricultural production

First forecast expects record harvest of grains in 2022 leveraged by recover of corn

Section: Economic Statistics | Caio Bellandi

November 11, 2021 09h00 AM | Last Updated: November 16, 2021 11h50 AM

Corn is expected to rise in the two harvests in 2022 and should leverage a record - Photo: Licia Rubinstein/IBGE News Agency

According to the first estimate of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - LSPA, released today (11) by the IBGE, the Brazilian harvest of cereals and legumes should add up to 270.7 million tonnes in 2022. That figure means a new record in the time series started in 1975 and it represents an increase of 7.8% in relation to the 2021 estimates or more 10.5 million tonnes.

It is expected that corn should be the major responsible for that increase. After a big drop in the output in 2021, due to the delay in the planting of the second crop and to the lack of rainfall in the major producing states, the forecast for 2022 is of a rise of 11.1% for the first crop (or 2.8 million tonnes) and of 26.8% for the second crop (or 16.2 million). “A year of regular climate is expected, which could recover the crops,” states Carlos Barradas, manager of the survey.

Another reason for a record concerns the economic issue. Despite the increase in the production costs, the prices of the agricultural commodities like corn, wheat and soybeans are high, pushed by the valuation of the dollar. Causing the producer to increase the planting and invest more in those crops,” explains Barradas.

The output of soybeans (0.8% or 1.1 million tonnes), upland cottonseed (2.4% or 84.9 thousand), sorghum (12.8% or 302.4 thousand), beans - 1st crop (6.9% or 80.9 thousand) and beans - 2nd crop (9.8% or 101 thousand) should grow The survey also estimates drops in the production of rice (-3.9% or 451.6 thousand), beans - 3rd crop (-0.9% or 5.1 thousand) and wheat (-10.0% or 785.8 thousand).

Estimate for 2021 harvest is 1.2% lower than that of 2020

The survey also unveiled the October´s estimate for the 2021 harvest, expecting 251.2 million tonnes, 1.2% less (or 3 million tonnes) than that obtained in 2020 (254.1 million).

The expected area to be harvested is of 68.5 million hectares, growing 4.6% over the area harvested in 2020. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, and, together, account for 92.5% of the output estimate and for 87.6% of the area to be harvested.

Compared with the previous year, the area for corn increased 6.4%, being 1.6% in the first crop and 8.1% in the second, in addition to the rise of 0.3% in the area for rice and of 4.8% in the area for soybeans. On the other hand, the area for upland cottonseed dropped 15.9%.

Whenever taking into account the output, the LSPA shows an increase of 10.3% for soybeans and of 4.5% for paddy rice and a drop for upland cotton (-17.5%) and for corn (-16%), being a reduction of 2.8% in the first crop and of 20.6% in the second one.

The expected production of soybeans was of 134.1 million tonnes, whereas the forecast for corn was of 86.7 million tonnes, being 25.9 million tonnes in the first crop and 60.9 million in the second one. The output of rice was estimated at 11.5 million tonnes and that of upland cottonseed, at 5.8 million.

Six states add up to 80% of the national production; Mato Grosso has 29%

According to the LSPA, Mato Grosso leads the national production of grains with a share of 28.5%, followed by Rio Grande do Sul (15.0%), Paraná (13.2%), Goiás (9.2%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.7%) and Minas Gerais (6.1%). Together, the first six states represented 79.7% of the national overall. In the regional division, the Central-West leads (45.7%), followed by the South (30.6%), Southeast (10.0%), Northeast (9.1%) and North (4.6%).

Stock capacity grows 2.5% in the first semester of 2021

Also released today (11) by the IBGE, the Survey of Stocks showed a rise of 2.5% in the available capacity for storage in Brazil in the first semester of 2021 against the previous semester, reaching 180.6 million tonnes. Mato Grosso remains with the largest storage capacity in Brazil, with 44.4 million tonnes. It is followed by Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, with 34.3 and 32.6 million tonnes of capacity, respectively.

Concerning the types of storage, the survey showed that the silos still prevail, having hit 90.4 million tonnes (50.0%) of the total storage capacity. They are followed by automated and bulk warehouses, which hit 67.7 million tonnes of storage capacity, and conventional, temporary and inflatable warehouses, with 22.5 million tonnes.

About the LSPA

Launched in November 1972 aiming at addressing the demand of users for monthly short-term statistical information, the LSPA provides estimates of planted area, harvested area, amount produced and average yield of products selected based on criteria of economic and social importance for Brazil. It not only follows up each crop investigated in the calendar year of reference, from the intention to plant up to the end of the harvest, yet also the forecast of the harvest in the coming year, for which the months of October, November and December are surveyed.

About the Survey of Stocks

The survey, which encompasses the entire country, aims at providing statistical information about volume and spatial distribution of stocks of basic agricultural products, as well as of the units where they are stored. The data raised by the Survey of Stocks are key to public and private managers and are related to food security issues. The information is provided by owners, expert employees or accountants of the establishments surveyed and is answered face-to-face, through telephone, email or online. The results are released every semester.

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